From: SIU Weather Processor (ldm@WEATHER3.ADMIN.NIU.EDU)
Date: Sat Oct 18 2008 - 02:15:06 EDT
WTIO20 FMEE 180613
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/10/2008
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 18/10/2008 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8S / 69.1E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP TO 400 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN
QSEMI-CIRCLE.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25KT AND ROUGH SEAS AROUND THE CENTER LOCALLY
REACHING 30/35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS FAR FROM THE CENTER IN
THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT BETWEEN 130 NM AND 200 NM.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/10/18 AT 18 UTC:
10.4S / 68.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H, VALID 2008/10/19 AT 06 UTC:
11.5S / 67.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CENTER IS BADLY DEFINED, IT IS LOOSING ITS ORGANIZATION AND HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS, WHILE TRACKING GLOBALLY
SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS.
THUNDERLY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM IS SOUTHWESTERN AWAY FROM
THE
ESTIMATED CENTER DUE A PERSISTANT EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
DUE
TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND UNDER
SQUALLS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW A RATHER SLOW INTENSIFICATION.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.=
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