SUMMARY: February Tropical Cyclone Summary - Part 1

From: Gary Padgett (garyp@ALAWEB.COM)
Date: Thu Mar 27 2003 - 09:03:26 EST


                    MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY

                               FEBRUARY, 2003
                                   Part 1

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

  NOTE: The February summary is being issued in two installments. This
  first part covers the Southwest Indian Ocean basin. The second part
  will cover the Australian Region and the South Pacific basin, and will
  contain the Feature of the Month.

  SPECIAL NOTE: The second installment of the January summary is not
  quite ready yet, so I'm going ahead and sending Part 1 of February's
  summary first. Simon Clarke, who is writing the reports on South
  Pacific cyclones Ami and Beni, experienced some computer problems
  which delayed him and caused him to lose some files. In addition,
  some of our e-mail messages to each other were lost. He has things
  under control now and I have the report on Beni ready. As soon as I
  receive and edit his writeup on Ami, the summary will be sent.

  *************************************************************************

                            FEBRUARY HIGHLIGHTS

  --> Twin tropical cyclones in Southwest Indian--one brushes Mauritius
  --> First named Australian cyclones of season form
  --> Very intense cyclone forms in Southeast Pacific
  --> Damaging tropical cyclone strikes Mozambique

  *************************************************************************

               ***** Feature of the Month for February *****

  NOTE!!! The Feature of the Month will appear in the second installment
           of the February summary.

  *************************************************************************

                             ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for February: No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for February: No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for February: No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for February: No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for February: 1 moderate tropical storm
                          1 tropical cyclone
                          2 intense tropical cyclones

                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
  the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
  Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
  for the basin. However, tropical cyclones in this region are named
  by the sub-regional warning centres on Mauritius and Madagascar with
  longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their respective
  areas of warning responsibility. The La Reunion centre only advises
  these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems. References
  to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise
  stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
  40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
  1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
  tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
  satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
  the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.

           Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for February
           -----------------------------------------------------

     The South Indian Ocean west of 90E was quite active during the month
  of February. Four named systems developed; three reached tropical
  cyclone (i.e., hurricane) intensity, and of these three, two became
  intense tropical cyclones (10-min mean wind greater than or equal to
  90 kts). Tropical Cyclones Gerry and Hape and Tropical Storm Isha all
  formed at about the same time with all three following easterly or
  southeasterly trajectories. Gerry reached the intense cyclone threshold
  of 90 kts right at the time it made its closest approach to Mauritius,
  passing about 65 nm east of the northern tip of the island. Hape and
  Isha were further east and had no effect on land. Late in the month,
  intense Tropical Cyclone Japhet formed in the Mozambique Channel and
  eventually made landfall in Mozambique as a fairly strong cyclone,
  equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale.
  Reports on all four systems follow.

                         TROPICAL CYCLONE GERRY
                            (MFR-10 / TC-16S)
                             8 - 17 February
               ------------------------------------------

  Gerry: contributed by Kenya

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     What would become the first intense cyclone of the 2002-2003 season
  in the Southwest Indian Ocean had its beginnings in an area of convection
  which developed on 7 February about 320 nm north-northwest of Mauritius.
  Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery indicated persistent convection
  associated with a weak LLCC. An upper-air analysis revealed favorable
  diffluence and weak vertical shear over the disturbance. JTWC rated the
  potential for development as fair. MFR initiated bulletins on Tropical
  Disturbance 10 at 08/0600 UTC and JTWC issued a TCFA at 0630 UTC.
  Convective organization near the LLCC had improved and a 200-mb analysis
  indicated continued favorable conditions aloft.

     JTWC issued the first warning on TC-16S at 1800 UTC. The center was
  located approximately 350 nm north-northwest of Mauritius, and the MSW
  (1-min avg) was estimated at 30 kts. MFR upgraded the system to a
  30-kt depression at 0000 UTC on 9 February. The depression was drifting
  slowly northward or north-northwestward and was then located about
  400 nm north-northwest of Mauritius. JTWC relocated the center farther
  north at 09/0600 UTC based on recent visible and SSM/I imagery and upped
  the MSW (1-min avg) to 35 kts. By 1800 UTC the system had reached a
  point 490 nm north-northwest of Mauritius and was moving northwestward
  at 5 kts. The LLCC remained broad and partially-exposed with the deep
  convection located to the west of the center.

  B. Track and Intensity History
  ------------------------------

     At 0600 UTC on 10 February JTWC increased the estimated MSW (1-min
  avg) to 45 kts, and MFR upped the 10-min avg intensity to 35 kts. The
  Meteorological Services of Mauritius named the system Tropical Storm
  Gerry, located approximately 550 nm north-northwest of Mauritius. Gerry
  began tracking slowly toward the south-southeast and by 11/0600 UTC was
  located about 450 nm north-northwest of Mauritius. The storm had not
  strengthened significantly with the intensity being reported at 40 kts.
  (JTWC was estimating 60-kts 1-min avg at the time). There is a
  possibility that Gerry was experiencing some interaction with Tropical
  Storm Hape about 600 nm to the southwest. Gerry began to strengthen
  later on the 11th as it continued trekking south-southeastward in the
  direction of Mauritius, and at 1200 UTC on 12 February, MFR upgraded
  the storm to tropical cyclone (i.e., hurricane) status with 65-kt winds
  when it was located approximately 225 nm northwest of Mauritius. (JTWC's
  previous warning at 12/0600 UTC had reported 55 kts, but at 1800 UTC the
  MSW was jumped up to 75 kts, based on CI estimates of 77 kts.)

     During the next 12 hours the tropical cyclone intensified rather
  rapidly as it neared Mauritius. MFR increased the intensity to 90 kts
  at 13/0600 UTC, making Gerry the first intense tropical cyclone of the
  season. (JTWC's estimated 1-min avg MSW was 105 kts, roughly equal to
  MFR's 10-min avg estimate.) The cyclone at this time was near its
  closest point of approach to Mauritius, being centered about 65 nm east-
  northeast of Cap Malheureux (the northern tip of the island). Intense
  Tropical Cyclone Gerry displayed a well-defined eye, and an upper-air
  analysis indicated favorable outflow in all quadrants. Storm-force winds
  extended outward 50 nm from the center while gales reached outward around
  90 nm in the southern semicircle and 120 nm to the north. (JTWC's gale
  radii were about 30-40 nm larger than MFR's.) Very fortunately for
  Mauritius, Gerry's motion became more east-southeasterly as it neared the
  island. This kept the more dangerous left semicircle further away from
  Mauritius and resulted in the storm's just brushing the island rather
  than striking directly--something which had appeared very possible
  24 hours earlier. The MSW estimates of 90 and 105 kts from MFR and
  JTWC, respectively, represent the peak intensity for Tropical Cyclone
  Gerry, and the minimum CP estimated by MFR was 940 mb.

     Gerry weakened rather quickly after passing Mauritius. By 13/1800
  UTC, although the storm was still intense, deep convection was beginning
  to erode in the northern portion of the banding eye feature. By 14/1200
  UTC, only 24 hours after reaching peak intensity, MFR downgraded Gerry
  to a 60-kt tropical storm, and JTWC lowered their 1-min avg MSW estimate
  from 100 kts at 14/0000 UTC to 75 kts at 1200 UTC (based on CI estimates
  of 65 and 77 kts). Gerry was located 420 nm southeast of Mauritius, or
  about 300 nm south of Rodrigues, moving southeastward at 8 kts. Animated
  satellite imagery revealed an exposed LLCC decoupled approximately 30 nm
  northwest of the deeper convection.

     By 15/0000 UTC Gerry was moving quickly southeastward at 17 kts. The
  broad LLCC was devoid of convection, and a weak cold front appeared to
  have developed and was extending north and west of the system. A more
  well-defined area of clouds to the east of Gerry was analyzed to be a
  moderate warm front with warm air advection. An upper-level analysis
  indicated an upper-level jet south of the system with an associated
  gradient of increasing vertical shear. JTWC issued their final warning
  on Gerry at 15/1200 UTC with the system located about 700 nm southeast of
  Mauritius, moving southeastward at 6 kts. An earlier QuikScat pass had
  revealed a broad area of gale-force winds and MFR continued to estimate
  the intensity at 40 kts through 1800 UTC. At 16/0000 UTC Gerry was
  downgraded to a depression, although some spots of gale-force winds were
  still occurring well south and east of the center. The system was
  declared extratropical at 16/1200 UTC when located about 650 nm southeast
  of Rodrigues. MFR issued the final gale warning on the extratropical
  depression at 1200 UTC on 17 February.

  C. Meteorological Observations
  ------------------------------

     At 1800 UTC on 11 February the center of Gerry lay approximately
  65 nm west-northwest of Tromelin Island (15.9S, 54.5E). The island
  reported a sustained wind (10-min avg) of 35 kts with a peak gust of
  51 kts at that hour. The peak gust for the storm of 60 kts and minimum
  SLP of 986 mb occurred at 2100 UTC.

     The peak wind gust recorded on Mauritius was 78 kts at Ft. William,
  near Port Louis. Gusts of 55-70 kts were common over the northern end
  of the island. Thomas Birger recorded a minimum SLP of 989.9 mb at
  his home. Some of the higher 24-hour rainfall amounts include 139.2 mm
  at Mare aux Vacoas, 130.6 mm at Vacoas, and 129.8 mm at Trou aux Cerfs.
  Tropical Cyclone Gerry caused some very high seas in northern Mauritius.
  Local inhabitants stated that the seas were more furious than those
  caused by Tropical Cyclone Hollanda in 1994 and Tropical Cyclone Dina
  in 2002. According to Thomas Birger, the seas kicked up by Gerry were
  the most spectacular seen in Mauritius since those resulting from
  Tropical Cyclone Gervaise in 1975 and Tropical Cyclone Alix in 1960.

     (A special thanks to Karl Hoarau and Thomas Birger for sending me
  the above information.)

  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     There was only one fatality attributed to Tropical Cyclone Gerry
  in Mauritius--a doctor who was electrocuted during the storm. Even
  though parts of the island experienced hurricane-force wind gusts,
  damage was negligible according to Jean Marc de Maroussem, who lives
  in Mauritius.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

                         TROPICAL CYCLONE HAPE
                           (MFR-11 / TC-17S)
                            9 - 16 February
               -----------------------------------------

  Hape: contributed by Lesotho

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     Tropical Cyclone Hape was more or less a twin of Tropical Cyclone
  Gerry which was operating farther west. MFR initiated bulletins on
  Tropical Disturbance 11 at 0600 UTC on 9 February, located roughly
  500 nm southwest of Diego Garcia. Around 1800 UTC animated enhanced
  infrared and visible imagery revealed a small LLCC associated with
  persistent deep convection. A 200-mb analysis indicated favorable
  outflow aloft and JTWC rated the potential for development as fair.
  The disturbance drifted westward for the next day or so, gradually
  improving in organization. MFR upgraded the system to tropical
  depression status at 0600 UTC on the 10th, locating the center about
  650 nm southwest of Diego Garcia. JTWC issued a TCFA at 0530 UTC,
  but placed the center farther north at a position approximately 580 nm
  southwest of Diego Garcia. By 1800 UTC the center was located about
  460 nm east-northeast of Mauritius, moving southward at 11 kts. JTWC
  issued the first warning on TC-17S, estimating the MSW (1-min avg) at
  40 kts, based on CI estimates of 35 and 45 kts. A 10/1741 UTC SSM/I
  pass had depicted a well-defined circulation with a band of deep
  convection in the northern semicircle.

  B. Track and Intensity History
  ------------------------------

     At 0600 UTC on 11 February the Meteorological Services of Mauritius
  named the depression Tropical Storm Hape, located approximately 450 nm
  east-northeast of Mauritius or about 200 nm north-northeast of Rodrigues.
  MFR estimated the MSW (10-min avg) at 35 kts while JTWC upped the 1-min
  avg MSW to 45 kts, based on CI estimates of 35 and 45 kts. An 11/0427
  UTC SSM/I pass had suggested the formation of an eye, but the CDO had
  subsequently begun to weaken. Hape was trekking south-southeastward at
  11 kts, and this motion was forecast to continue for the next 48 hours
  as the system was guided by a near-equatorial ridge to the north-
  northeast. Once having reaching tropical storm status, Hape began to
  intensify rapidly. Only six hours later MFR upped the intensity to
  60 kts, and at 1800 UTC JTWC estimated the MSW (1-min avg) at 75 kts
  based on CI estimates of 65 and 77 kts. An 11/1726 UTC SSM/I pass
  depicted a 13-nm diameter eye with a deep convective band extending into
  the eastern and northern quadrants. Animated water vapor imagery
  depicted poleward outflow being enhanced by a passing trough to the
  southeast.

     MFR upgraded Hape to tropical cyclone (i.e., hurricane) status at
  12/0000 UTC when the system was centered approximately 250 nm northeast
  of Rodrigues. Six hours later Hape reached its peak intensity of
  70 kts (80 kts per JTWC) with the CP estimated at 965 mb. Hape's track
  had become more east-southeasterly by late on the 11th, and by the time
  it reached peak intensity the cyclone was moving east-northeastward at
  15 kts as it tracked toward a weakness in the near-equatorial ridge to
  the north. By 1800 UTC Hape had begun to weaken slightly with MFR and
  JTWC lowering their respective intensity estimates to 65 and 75 kts.
  Interestingly, at 13/0600 UTC JTWC bumped their 1-min avg MSW estimate
  back to 80 kts while MFR lowered the intensity to 55 kts. By 1800 UTC
  on the 13th Hape was located about 450 nm south of Diego Garcia and
  moving eastward at 6 kts. JTWC maintained the 80-kt intensity (based
  on CI estimates of 77 and 90 kts) while MFR raised their 10-min avg MSW
  estimate back to 60 kts.

     Hape's intensity had come down to 50 kts (65 kts per JTWC) by 0600 UTC
  on 14 February and the storm had begun tracking southeastward at 7 kts
  under the influence of a building subtropical ridge to the east-
  northeast of the system. Recent microwave imagery revealed that while
  the LLCC was still well-defined, deep convection had dissipated over the
  center. Animated water vapor imagery indicated that the outflow pattern
  over Hape had become unfavorable due to interaction with Tropical Cyclone
  Gerry, then located about 800 nm to the southwest. Satellite CI
  estimates remained at 65 kts through 1800 UTC and MFR bumped the MSW up
  slightly to 60 kts while JTWC lowered their 1-min avg intensity estimate
  to 60 kts. The storm began to weaken rapidly thereafter. JTWC issued
  their final warning on Hape at 0600 UTC on the 15th, lowering the MSW
  to 35 kts and placing the center approximately 800 nm south-southeast of
  Diego Garcia, moving southeastward at 23 kts. The LLCC by this time
  had become completely exposed. MFR downgraded Hape to depression status
  at 15/1800 UTC and issued their final bulletin at 16/0000 UTC, locating
  the dissipating system almost 1300 nm southwest of the Cocos Islands.

  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
  Cyclone Hape.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

                         TROPICAL STORM ISHA
                          (MFR-12 / TC-18S)
                          11 - 14 February
               ---------------------------------------

  Isha: contributed by the Seychelles

     The origins of Tropical Storm Isha are shrouded in somewhat of a
  mystery. I am missing a couple of the daily STWOs from JTWC which would
  probably shed a little light on the pre-warning disturbance which became
  the ephemeral Isha. There was a tropical LOW in the vicinity of the
  Cocos Islands for which Perth wrote gale warnings on 4-6 February. This
  system may have drifted westward and latter re-intensified. However,
  there was widespread disturbed weather and areas of convection in the
  monsoon trough in the Southeast Indian Ocean during early February, so
  Isha could well have developed from a surface circulation other than
  the Australian LOW. JTWC issued the first warning on TC-18S at 0000 UTC
  on 11 February with an initial MSW (1-min avg) of 30 kts. The system
  was located about 650 nm southwest of the Cocos Islands and moving
  southwestward at 11 kts. Satellite imagery indicated that the system's
  organization had improved during the past 12 hours.

     MFR initiated bulletins on Tropical Disturbance 12 at 11/1200 UTC.
  The LOW was then located about 720 nm southeast of Diego Garcia and had
  turned to a slow south-southeasterly track. At 12/0000 UTC the system
  was located approximately 800 nm southeast of Diego Garcia and moving
  east-southeastward at 8 kts. A general southeasterly track was fore-
  cast to continue under the influence of a low to mid-level near-
  equatorial ridge to the north. JTWC increased the MSW (1-min avg) to
  40 kts, based on CI estimates of 35 and 45 kts, and at 0600 UTC MFR
  upgraded the disturbance to a 30-kt tropical depression. The intensity
  remained static for another 24 hours as an upper-level ridge passing
  over the system seemed to be hindering development.

     JTWC upped the MSW to 45 kts at 13/0000 UTC. Some of the computer
  models suggested that TC-18S had interacted briefly with Tropical
  Cyclone Hape. The environment had become more conducive to
  strengthening by early on the 13th with a favorable outflow pattern and
  weak vertical shear. At 13/0600 UTC MFR upgraded the system to Tropical
  Storm Isha, located about 825 nm west-southwest of the Cocos Islands
  and moving southeastward at around 10 kts. Isha's tenure as a tropical
  storm (per MFR) was very brief--at 1200 UTC the storm was downgraded to
  a depression. Animated water vapor imagery revealed that Isha had
  weakened due to the entrainment of cool, dry air and the development of
  unfavorable shear associated with a mid-latitude LOW to the south.

     The weakening tropical system was forecast to continue tracking south-
  southeastward under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge
  to the east. MFR issued their final bulletin at 13/1800 UTC, downgrading
  the depression to a 25-kt LOW. JTWC had maintained the 45-kt intensity
  at 1200 UTC, but issued the final warning at 14/0000 UTC. The MSW
  was dropped to 35 kts (1-min avg), based on CI estimates of 30-35 kts.
  Enhanced infrared imagery depicted little remaining convection due to
  the cool, dry air and unfavorable vertical shear. The center was
  difficult to locate, but was estimated to be about 850 nm southwest of
  the Cocos Islands.

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
  Storm Isha.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

                         TROPICAL CYCLONE JAPHET
                            (MFR-13 / TC-19S)
                          25 February - 3 March
               -------------------------------------------

  Japhet: contributed by Malawi

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     Tropical Cyclone Japhet was the second tropical cyclone of the 2002-
  2003 season to reach intense status (10-min avg MSW of 90 kts), and
  only the sixth storm over the past 24 seasons to attain intense tropical
  cyclone status in the Mozambique Channel. MFR issued the first bulletin
  on Tropical Disturbance 13 at 1200 UTC on 25 February, locating a weak
  25-kt center a little less than 100 nm west-southwest of Tulear on the
  southwestern coast of Madagascar. At 2100 UTC JTWC issued a TCFA for
  the system due to improving conditions for development. Animated
  infrared imagery, a 25/1419 UTC TRMM pass, and a 25/1742 UTC SSM/I pass
  indicated that a spiral cloud pattern was beginning to form, and a
  25/1454 UTC QuikScat pass indicated better consolidation of the LLCC
  than had been noted 12 hours previously. An upper-air analysis indicated
  weak vertical shear and weak to moderate diffluence.

     JTWC issued the first warning on TC-19S at 26/0000 UTC and MFR
  upgraded the system to tropical depression status at 0600 UTC. The
  center was located approximately 200 nm west-northwest of Tulear and
  moving westward very slowly at only 2 kts. The system was forecast to
  track westward through 36 hours, steered by a mid-level ridge to the
  southwest, then turn poleward as the ridge moved eastward. JTWC upped
  the MSW (1-min avg) to 35 kts at 1200 UTC, and at 1800 UTC the Meteor-
  ological Services of Madagascar named the depression Tropical Storm
  Japhet. Japhet was located about 265 nm west-northwest of Tulear and
  its forward motion had almost halted and become erratic.

  B. Track and Intensity History
  ------------------------------

     At 0000 UTC on 27 February Tropical Storm Japhet was located about
  230 nm east of Mozambique and moving west-northwestward at 4 kts. By
  1200 UTC the storm had taken an abrupt turn toward the south-southwest
  toward a weakness in the ridge lying to the south. The storm had been
  steadily intensifying and the MSW was up to 55 kts. The intensification
  continued and JTWC upped the intensity to 75 kts (1-min avg) at 0000 UTC
  on the 28th, based on CI estimates of 65 and 77 kts. Japhet at this time
  was about 130 nm east of the Mozambican coast and moving south-southwest
  at 8 kts. At 0600 UTC MFR officially upgraded Japhet to tropical
  cyclone (i.e., hurricane) status with the MSW estimated at 70 kts. By
  1800 UTC the intensity had climbed to 90 kts, making Japhet the second
  intense tropical cyclone of the season in the Southwest Indian Ocean.

     At 0000 UTC on 1 March MFR and JTWC increased the intensity estimates
  to 95 and 115 kts, respectively. The cyclone was then drifting southward
  over the Mozambique Channel and still deepening. Japhet's peak
  intensity was reached at 0600 UTC when the MSW reached 100 kts (10-min
  avg), agreeing very well with JTWC's peak 1-min avg MSW of 115 kts. The
  minimum CP estimated by MFR was 927 mb. Storm-force winds extended out
  from the center about 70 nm, and gales reached outward 100 nm to the
  north and 120 nm to the south. Japhet was essentially stationary at this
  time, but a mid-level ridge over South Africa was forecast to strengthen
  and eventually force the storm northward or northwestward.

     By 0000 UTC on 2 March Tropical Cyclone Japhet's center was about
  85 nm off the Mozambican coast and moving northwestward at 5 kts. The
  storm had weakened slightly to 90 kts (105 kts per JTWC), and continued
  weakening was forecast as Japhet approached the coast as a result of dry
  air entrainment and less favorable poleward outflow. At 1200 UTC the
  cyclone was just off the coast with both warning centers reporting the
  intensity at 85 kts. By 1800 UTC Japhet was located just offshore about
  80 nm south-southeast of Beira, Mozambique, and just about ready to move
  inland. Tropical Cyclone Japhet made landfall at approximately 1930 UTC
  just south of Vilanculos, Mozambique, with a MSW of around 80 kts (10-min
  avg). Three hours before landfall Vilanculos reported a sustained wind
  of 40 kts, gusting to 57 kts.

     Japhet made landfall in Mozambique moving on a northwesterly track.
  After moving ashore the weakening storm began to move in a more westerly
  direction. At 1200 UTC on 3 March the center was located approximately
  240 km northwest of Vilanculos, moving westward at 6 kts. This was the
  final warning from JTWC, estimating the intensity at 55 kts--seemingly
  a little high for a system which had been inland for almost 18 hours.
  MFR's 1200 UTC warning reported the MSW at 35 kts, and that agency
  issued its final bulletin on Japhet six hours later. That bulletin
  noted that squally weather continued to affect waters in the southeastern
  sector up to 400 km from the center.

  C. Meteorological Observations
  ------------------------------

     As noted above, Vilanculos, Mozambique, reported a sustained wind of
  40 kts, gusting to 57 kts, around 02/1630 UTC. The only other report
  I have available was from Ile Europa (22.3S, 40.3E) on 26 February during
  the formative stages of Japhet. At 26/1200 UTC the storm was centered
  approximately 70 nm northwest of the island, which reported sustained
  east-southeast winds of 50 kts (10-min avg) and a MSLP of 1000 mb.
  The respective MSW estimates from MFR and JTWC at that hour were 30 kts
  and 35 kts. Such a strong wind 70 nm from the center does not seem
  indicative of the strength of the circulation near the center, but rather
  likely related to a strong gradient on the periphery of the storm due to
  a strong HIGH passing to the south. (A thanks to Patrick Hoareau for
  sending me the Ile Europa observation.)

  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     Tropical Cyclone Japhet became another in a series of natural
  disasters to inflict misery on the nation of Mozambique. As of 11 March
  the death toll from the cyclone stood at 19 with most deaths due to
  flooding. About 23,000 persons were rendered homeless in and around
  the city of Vilanculos in Inhambane Province where Japhet initially
  made landfall. Later, thousands more were displaced, losing their homes,
  personal belongings, crops and livestock as the Save River, which flows
  out of Zimbabwe, burst its banks and flooded towns and villages. In
  Vilanculos about 95% of the brick houses had their roofs ripped off or
  experienced damage to windows and doors. Water and electricity supplies
  and telecommunications were also interrupted and several schools were
  partially destroyed. Many roads in Inhambane and Manica Provinces were
  either blocked by uprooted palms or else flooded.

     Several articles on the effects of Tropical Cyclone Japhet in
  Mozambique can be found at the following URL:

     <http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/vLND>

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

  Activity for February: 1 tropical LOW
                          1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity
                          1 severe tropical cyclone (hurricane)

  NOTE!!! The Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean region will be
           covered in Part 2 of the February summary.

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

  Activity for February: 1 tropical cyclone **
                          1 hybrid LOW

  ** - Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Beni from east of 160E briefly
       reintensified off Queensland coast in early February. Beni was
       covered in the January summary.

  NOTE!!! The Northeast Australia/Coral Sea region will be covered in
           Part 2 of the February summary.

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for February: 2 tropical depressions **
                          1 tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity

  ** - One of these was not designated with the normal numbering system
       employed by Nadi for tropical depressions and may have been
       considered more of a hybrid or subtropical system.

  NOTE!!! The South Pacific basin will be covered in Part 2 of the
           February summary.

  *************************************************************************

                              EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
  summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.

  *************************************************************************

  AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
  from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
  distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
  Chris Landsea):

    <http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    <http://www.typhoon2000.ph> OR <http://64.235.42.210>
    <http://mpittweather.com>
    <ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>

     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:

    <http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>

                    TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

     JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical
  Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2001 (2000-2001 season for the Southern
  Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also. Recently
  added was the report for the Southern Hemisphere 2001-2002 season.

     The URL is: <http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2001 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 2001
  Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as
  well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.

     The URL is: <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>

     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.

  PREPARED BY

  Gary Padgett
  E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com
  Phone: 334-222-5327

  John Wallace (Eastern North Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Western
                 Gulf of Mexico)
  E-mail: dosidicus@aol.com

  Kevin Boyle (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
                China Sea)
  E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com

  Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
  E-mail: saclarke@iprimus.com.au

  *************************************************************************
  *************************************************************************

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