SUMMARY: January Tropical Cyclone Summary - Part 1

From: Gary Padgett (garyp@ALAWEB.COM)
Date: Mon Mar 03 2003 - 20:45:26 EST


                   MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY

                               JANUARY, 2003
                                  Part 1

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

  NOTE: The January summary is being issued in two parts. This first
  installment covers the Northwest Pacific and Southwest Indian Ocean
  basins and contains the Feature of the Month. The second part will
  cover the Australian Region and the South Pacific basin.

  *************************************************************************

                            JANUARY HIGHLIGHTS

  --> Tropical storm strikes Madagascar
  --> South Pacific continues active with two intense damaging cyclones
  --> Monsoon depression surprises Australian forecasters
  --> First Northwest Pacific tropical storm of year forms

  *************************************************************************

               ***** Feature of the Month for January *****

          TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN

     Beginning in 2000, tropical storms and typhoons forming in the North
  Pacific west of the Dateline have been assigned names by JMA taken from a
  new list of Asian names contributed by fourteen nations and territories
  from the western Pacific and eastern Asia. Names are not allocated
  in alphabetical order and the majority are not personal names. Instead,
  names of animals, plants, fictional characters, descriptive adjectives,
  places--even foods--are utilized. The entire list consists of 140
  names, and all names will be used before any are repeated. The last
  name assigned in 2002 was Pongsona in early December while one tropical
  cyclone has already been named in 2003. The next storm to develop
  will be named Kujira--the Japanese word for 'whale'.

     The next 36 names on the list are (** indicates name has already
  been assigned in 2003):

       Yanyan ** Etau Melor Mindulle
       Kujira Vamco Nepartak Tingting
       Chan-hom Krovanh Lupit Kompasu
       Linfa Dujuan Sudal Namtheun
       Nangka Maemi Nida Malou
       Soudelor Choi-wan Omais Meranti
       Imbudo Koppu Conson Rananim
       Koni Ketsana Chanthu Malakas
       Morakot Parma Dianmu Megi

     Since 1963 PAGASA has independently named tropical cyclones forming
  in the Philippines' AOR--from 115E to 135E and from 5N to 25N (except
  for a portion of the northwestern corner of the above region). Even
  though the Philippines contributed ten names to the international list
  of typhoon names, PAGASA still continues to assign their own names for
  local use within the Philippines. It is felt that familiar names are
  more easily remembered in the rural areas and that having a PAGASA-
  assigned name helps to underscore the fact that the cyclone is within
  PAGASA's AOR and potentially a threat to the Philippines. Another
  consideration may be PAGASA's desire to assign a name when a system is
  first classified as a tropical depression. Since tropical and/or
  monsoon depressions can bring very heavy rainfall to the nation which
  often results in disastrous flooding, the weather service feels that
  assigning a name helps to enhance public attention given to a system.

     Beginning with 2001 PAGASA began using new sets of cyclone names.
  These do not all end in "ng" as did the older names. Four sets of 25
  names will be rotated annually; thus, the set for 2003 will be re-used
  in 2007. In case more than 25 systems are named in one season, an
  auxiliary set will be used. PAGASA names for 2003 are (** indicates
  name has already been assigned in 2003):

           Amang Juaning Roskas
           Batibot Kabayan Sikat
           Chedeng Lakay Tisoy
           Dodong Manang Ursula
           Egay Nina Viring
           Falcon Onyok Wang-wang
           Gilas Pogi Yoyoy
           Harurot Quiel Zigzag
           Ineng

     In the unlikely event that the list is exhausted, the following
  names would be allocated as needed: Abe, Berto, Charing, Danggit,
  Estoy, Fuego, Gening, Hantik, Irog, Joker.

        **** Index to Feature of the Month Articles for 2002 ****

  Jan - TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN
        (also Index to Feature of the Month Articles for 2001)

  Feb - WESTERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for 2002

  Mar - TABLES OF MONTHLY NET TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY (NTC)

  Apr - ACKNOWLEDGMENT AND THANKS TO MY SUPPORT TEAM
        (also NOT QUITE "MED-CANES")

  May - SOME OF MY FRIENDS' OUTSTANDING WEBSITES

  Jun - PATTERNS OF ATLANTIC INTENSE HURRICANE ACTIVITY

  Jul - TRACK FORECASTING WITH A KILO-MEMBER ENSEMBLE

  Aug - A CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
        DERIVED FROM THERMAL WIND AND THERMAL ASYMMETRY

  Sep - SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES
                   2002 - 2003 SEASON

  Oct - SOUTHEAST PACIFIC CYCLONE OF APRIL, 2002

  Nov - ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE

  Dec - A CLIMATOLOGY OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONES
              IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

  ***********************************************************************

                             ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for January: No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for January: No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for January: 1 tropical storm

                         Sources of Information
                         ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion
  tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
  from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
  positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
  warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
  Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
  sends me each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the
  National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather
  Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). A very
  special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so
  reliably provide.

     In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
  area of warning responsibility.

              Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for January
              -----------------------------------------------

     As was the case with 2002, the first Northwest Pacific tropical
  cyclone of 2003 appeared early, around the middle of January. Tropical
  Storm Yanyan began intensifying in the Pohnpei/Chuuk region, following a
  west-northwesterly track ominously similar to that of the destructive
  Super Typhoon Pongsona in December. Yanyan, however, remained a
  tropical storm and sharply recurved around 100 nm east-northeast of Guam.

     The summary for Tropical Storm Yanyan was written by Kevin Boyle of
  Stoke-on-Trent, UK. A special thanks to Kevin for his assistance.

                         TROPICAL STORM YANYAN
                          (TC-01W / TS 0301)
                            13 - 21 January
               -----------------------------------------

  Yanyan: contributed by Hong Kong, China, is a fairly common pet name
          for young girls

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     Even though tropical cyclones that form in January are labeled as the
  first of the year, climatologically speaking they are late-season storms.
  Since 1990, seven years have produced a cyclone during January, five of
  which (1990, 1992, 1997, 1999 and 2002) became named tropical storms.
  However, the last January typhoon was Axel (1992) which affected the
  Caroline Islands. The last major typhoon (>=100 kts) to occur in January
  was Roy (1988), which rampaged across much of the Northwest Pacific.

     JTWC began monitoring the pre-Yanyan disturbance at 0600 UTC on
  11 January, assessing the development potential as poor. The 12/0600 UTC
  STWO noted that animated satellite imagery was indicating an exposed
  LLCC, located near 2.0N, 178.2E, associated with an area of weak
  convection. Upper-level analysis showed weak vertical wind shear and
  fair outflow aloft over the area. The MSW and MSLP were estimated at
  10-15 kts and 1008 mb, respectively. Development potential was upgraded
  to fair at 13/0600 UTC. At the same time JMA began classifying the
  system as a 30-kt (10-min avg) tropical depression (near 2.4N, 173.8E).
  Synoptic observations from Ebon and Jaluit Atolls at 14/0600 UTC
  suggested there was at least a weak LLCC associated with this
  disturbance, but SSM/I imagery was inconclusive. Fair development
  potential continued through the 14th and was finally upgraded to good
  at 15/1630 UTC.

     The first warning soon followed at 15/1800 UTC on Tropical Depres-
  sion 01W, located near 7.2N, 160.9E, or 160 nm east of Pohnpei with the
  initial MSW set at 30 kts. Animated water vapor and enhanced infrared
  satellite imagery indicated cycling but organizing deep convection,
  although the LLCC was still difficult to locate in infrared satellite
  imagery. Movement was toward the west-northwest at 15 kts under the
  influence of a low to mid-level ridge to the north. By 1200 UTC,
  16 January, animated multi-spectral satellite imagery showed the deep
  convection diminishing markedly. The LLCC was fully-exposed at this time
  and difficult to locate. In fact, synoptic and QuikScat data did not
  indicate any obvious LLCC.

     After a brief westward push, TD-01W returned to its original west-
  northwestward heading at a faster pace of 18-19 kts, reaching a position
  (at 17/0000 UTC) near 10.0N, 152.9E, or 170 nm north-northeast of Chuuk.
  (The JMA position at the same time was 11.9N, 151.0E.) During this time,
  deep convection was on the increase, although the LLCC remained
  partially-exposed. TD-01W was upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm at
  17/0000 UTC.

  B. Track and Intensity History
  ------------------------------

     By 1200 UTC, 17 January, deep convective activity had waned again and
  there was only a single thunderstorm noted over the weak LLCC on micro-
  wave imagery. In addition, synoptic and QuikScat data showed maximum
  winds of 25 kts along the northern edge of the system. This led to the
  subsequent downgrading of TS-01W to a tropical depression. However, this
  weakening proved to be temporary. A 17/1631 UTC TRMM pass and enhanced
  infrared imagery showed increasing deep convection over a well-defined
  LLCC, and shortly afterward, at 17/1800 UTC, TD-01W was upgraded back to
  tropical storm status. At 18/0000 UTC, TS-01W was located approximately
  130 nm east of Guam moving on a northwesterly track with a MSW of 40 kts.
  Six hours later, JMA upgraded the system to a minimal tropical storm
  and dubbed it Yanyan. At the same time, NMCC began monitoring the
  storm in their bulletins (10-min avg MSW of 35 kts).

     Tropical Storm Yanyan began its forecast northward heading and slowed
  to a speed of 2 kts, much to the relief of residents of the Mariana
  Islands who were ravaged by Super Typhoon Pongsona a month earlier.
  Radar and a SSM/I pass indicated an exposed system with deep convection
  located in the western and poleward quadrants. However, an 18/1534 UTC
  TRMM pass and animated satellite imagery depicted redevelopment of deep
  convection over the LLCC. Tropical Storm Yanyan reached its peak
  intensity of 50 kts at 0000 UTC on 19 January, based on 50-kt winds near
  the circulation centre as noted in QuikScat imagery at 18/2223 UTC.
  (NMCC and JMA held the peak intensity to 45 kts and 35 kts,
  respectively.) At this time Yanyan was located near 14.4N, 148.1E, or
  approximately 140 nm east-southeast of Saipan. (JMA's 19/0000 UTC
  position was 15.2N, 147.7E.)

     Yanyan had recurved sharply onto an east-northeasterly track by late
  on the 18th, being influenced by a low to mid-level ridge to the east.
  This heading was expected to continue for the rest of Yanyan's career,
  although the storm was moving northeastward at around 12 kts late on the
  19th and early 20th. Weakening had already begun with an exposed LLCC
  (southwest of the sheared-off deep convection) at 20/0000 UTC and the
  MSW dropping below 35 kts at 20/1200 UTC. (Note: NMCC issued the last
  bulletin on Yanyan at 20/0600 UTC). However, despite deep convection
  redeveloping for a time, the system remained in a poorly-organised state
  until the final advisory was issued by JTWC at 21/0000 UTC. This warning
  located the centre near 18.3N, 156.5E, or 600 nm west of Wake Island.
  The decoupled small LLCC drifted toward the east-northeast at a slower
  speed of 6 kts, controlled by the lower-level surface flow. JMA
  continued issuing advisories until 21/1800 UTC with the final position
  relocated to 19.0N, 158.0E.

  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     There have been no reports of damage or casualties associated with
  Tropical Storm Yanyan.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for January: No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for January: 1 tropical disturbance
                         2 severe tropical storms

                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
  the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
  Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
  for the basin. However, tropical cyclones in this region are named
  by the sub-regional warning centres on Mauritius and Madagascar with
  longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their respective
  areas of warning responsibility. The La Reunion centre only advises
  these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems. References
  to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise
  stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
  40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
  1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
  tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
  satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
  the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.

            Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for January
            ----------------------------------------------------

     As was the case with December, two tropical systems were named in the
  Southwest Indian Ocean. However, neither reached cyclone (hurricane)
  intensity. Severe Tropical Storm Ebula formed early in the month well
  south of Diego Garcia and followed an almost straight south trajectory
  which took the system into higher latitudes. Late in the month a weak
  but tenacious disturbance moved west-southwestward from the Central
  Indian Ocean and intensified quickly into Severe Tropical Storm Fari as
  it approached southeastern Madagascar.

     MFR issued warnings on an additional tropical disturbance concurrently
  with Tropical Storm Ebula. This system, designated as Tropical Disturb-
  ance 07, developed in the Mozambique Channel, most likely from the
  remnants of Tropical Storm Delfina which had moved eastward from the
  African mainland back out over the Channel. The center was located
  about 300 nm west-southwest of Majunga, Madagascar, at 06/0000 UTC.
  During the following days the disturbance drifted generally southward,
  being located about 300 nm west of Tulear, Madagascar, at 08/1200 UTC.
  Winds near the center of the system were likely never higher than 25 kts,
  but stronger winds were forecast for the eastern and southern periphery
  of the LOW. MFR dropped warnings after 10/0600 UTC, but resumed them
  12 hours later when storm-force winds to 50 kts were reported well south
  of the center. The system by then was extratropical and continued to
  drift southward for another couple of days as it slowly weakened. JTWC
  assigned a fair development potential to the LOW on the 6th and 7th, but
  no warnings were issued.

                          TROPICAL STORM EBULA
                            (MFR-08 / TC-09S)
                             7 - 13 January
                ----------------------------------------

  Ebula: submitted by Swaziland

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     An area of convection developed and persisted on 6 January roughly
  175 nm south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Animated infrared and multi-
  spectral imagery indicated a developing LLCC. The system was moving
  west-southwestward out of the equatorial trough, and an upper-level
  analysis indicated favorable diffluence aloft with weak to moderate
  vertical shear. The potential for development was assessed as fair.
  MFR issued their first bulletin on Tropical Disturbance 08 at 1200 UTC
  on the 7th with maximum winds estimated at 20 kts near the center and
  up to 25 kts in the southern semicircle well away from the LLCC. JTWC
  upgraded the development potential to good at 1800 UTC--cycling deep
  convection had increased and was beginning to wrap into the LLCC in
  the southwestern quadrant. The disturbance at this time was located
  approximately 250 nm south-southwest of Diego Garcia.

     JTWC issued their first warning at 0000 UTC on 8 January, estimating
  the MSW (1-min avg) at 35 kts. By 1200 UTC the center of TC-09S was
  located about 335 nm south of Diego Garcia, moving south at 15 kts.
  MFR upgraded the system to tropical depression status with 30-kt winds
  at 1800 UTC. JTWC upped their 1-min avg MSW estimate to 50 kts at
  09/0000 UTC, based on CI estimates of 45 and 50 kts. Deep convection
  had continued to increase and wrap into the LLCC, and satellite imagery
  revealed a well-developed poleward outflow channel. At 09/0600 UTC
  the Mauritius Meteorological Service named the system Tropical Storm
  Ebula, then located about 550 nm south-southwest of Diego Garcia. MFR
  concurrently upped the MSW (10-min avg) to 45 kts.

  B. Track and Intensity History
  -------------------------------

     Throughout its entire history Tropical Storm Ebula followed a very
  meridional trajectory, never deviating more than one degree of longi-
  tude from 70E except as it was becoming extratropical late in its life.
  By 0000 UTC on 10 January Ebula was centered about 600 nm south of Diego
  Garcia. JTWC upped the intensity to 65 kts--minimal hurricane intensity
  --but MFR's peak MSW for Ebula was 60 kts. The storm reached its peak
  intensity (per MFR) at 10/0600 UTC when located approximately 725 nm
  south of Diego Garcia. The severe tropical storm maintained a MSW of
  60 kts for 18 hours before beginning to slowly weaken. The minimum
  central pressure estimated by MFR was 975 mb. By 1200 UTC on the 10th,
  CI estimates had reached 65 and 77 kts, but the system was beginning to
  experience northwesterly shearing. Ebula was forecast to turn south-
  eastward after 24 hours as the mid-level ridge to its south propagated
  eastward.

     By 0000 UTC on 11 January Tropical Storm Ebula was almost 1000 nm
  south of Diego Garcia and moving south-southeastward at 15 kts. MFR and
  JTWC lowered their respective intensity estimates to 55 and 60 kts.
  Animated water vapor imagery indicated dry air entraining into the system
  from the west with shearing apparent in the northern semicircle. By
  1200 UTC the intensity was down to 50 kts from both warning centers with
  the deep convection sheared to the south of the LLCC. JTWC issued their
  final warning at 12/0000 UTC with the MSW (1-min avg) placed at 40 kts,
  based on a CI estimate of 45 kts and a recent QuikScat pass. The LLCC
  was partially-exposed with all the deep convection in the southern semi-
  circle. JTWC forecast Ebula to complete extratropical transition within
  12 hours, and MFR declared the system extratropical at 1200 UTC. Winds
  had weakened to below gale force by the time the final MFR bulletin was
  issued at 1200 UTC on the 13th.

  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Severe
  Tropical Storm Ebula.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

                           TROPICAL STORM FARI
                            (MFR-09 / TC-11S)
                         23 January - 1 February
               -------------------------------------------

  Fari: contributed by Zimbabwe

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     An area of convection developed on 20 January, and by 1800 UTC on the
  21st was located roughly 600 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Animated
  multi-spectral satellite imagery and a recent SSM/I pass revealed a
  partially-exposed LLCC with associated weak deep convection to the south-
  east of the center. An upper-level analysis indicated good outflow
  poleward of the system with weak vertical shear over the center,
  increasing to moderate in the southeastern quadrant. At 0500 UTC on the
  22nd the development potential was upgraded to fair based on persistence
  and improved organization. By 1800 UTC the disturbance was located
  about 525 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia. A 22/0639 UTC TRMM pass had
  depicted a well-defined LLCC north of the deepest convection.

     MFR initiated bulletins on the system at 0600 UTC on 23 January,
  numbering it as Tropical Disturbance 09. At 1200 UTC JTWC issued a
  TCFA for the LOW which was moving west-southwestward at 11 kts. Deep
  convection had continued to increase as the LLCC's organization gradually
  improved. A 200-mb analysis showed that the system was near the upper-
  level ridge axis with weak vertical shear and improving poleward outflow.
  Two things happened at 1800 UTC: MFR upgraded the disturbance to a
  30-kt tropical depression, and JTWC issued their first warning,
  estimating the MSW (1-min avg) at 35 kts based on CI estimates of 30 and
  35 kts and a 35-kt ship report. The center of TC-11S was located some
  460 nm south-southeast of Diego Garcia, moving west-southwestward at
  11 kts. The fortunes of the fledgling tropical system, however, reversed
  quite rapidly. At 0600 UTC on the 24th, MFR downgraded the system back
  to tropical disturbance status with 25-kt winds, and JTWC dropped their
  1-min avg MSW to 20 kts and wrote the final warning. Animated satellite
  imagery and a recent SSM/I pass indicated that the mid-level circulation
  and associated deep convection had become decoupled from the LLCC and
  moved approximately 5 degrees to the west. The remnant LOW was then
  located about 500 nm south of Diego Garcia, and MFR continued to issue
  bulletins on the weak system as it tracked west-southwestward across the
  Southwest Indian Ocean.

     At 25/1800 UTC the LOW was located approximately 765 nm southeast of
  the Seychelles. Animated multi-spectral imagery indicated that the
  disturbance consisted of an elongated trough with two LLCCs about
  3 degrees apart. A 200-mb analysis indicated favorable diffluence aloft
  as the system approached a col in the upper-levels. JTWC assessed the
  potential for redevelopment as fair. MFR maintained the MSW near the
  center at only 20 kts for a couple of days, but bumped this up to 25 kts
  at 0600 UTC on 27 January and to 30 kts (tropical depression status) at
  1800 UTC. A STWO issued by JTWC at 27/2100 UTC located the disturbance
  about 225 nm east of the Madagascar coastline and noted that animated
  imagery indicated deep convection continuing to cycle in intensity. A
  CDO had formed, and recent SSM/I data depicted the LLCC partially-exposed
  to the southeast of the deep convection. Further development was
  anticipated as a 200-mb analysis indicated the depression was situated
  in a region of weak vertical shear near the ridge axis with favorable
  upper-level diffluence.

  B. Track and Intensity History
  ------------------------------

     JTWC resumed issuing warnings on TC-11S at 0000 UTC on 28 January with
  an initial intensity of 35 kts. The center was located approximately
  270 nm east of Antananarivo, Madagascar, moving west-southwestward at
  13 kts. Deep convection had consolidated over the LLCC during the
  previous 12 hours, and the system was forecast to continue tracking
  southwestward toward a weakness in the low and mid-level ridge. At
  1200 UTC the Meteorological Services of Madagascar upgraded the system
  to tropical storm status and assigned the name Fari. Tropical Storm Fari
  was then located about 185 nm east of Antananarivo. JTWC had upped the
  MSW (1-min avg) to 40 kts, although animated satellite imagery indicated
  some weakening in the convection as the system approached land.

     MFR increased the intensity to 40 kts at 1800 UTC, and to the peak of
  50 kts at 29/0000 UTC with Fari's center on the coast about 30 nm south
  of Mahanoro, moving westward and inland at 10 kts. (JTWC's peak 1-min
  avg MSW at 29/0000 UTC was 55 kts--in good agreement with MFR.) The
  minimum central pressure estimated by MFR was 984 mb. MFR lowered the
  intensity to 25 kts at 0600 UTC, although the warning noted that stronger
  winds to 30 kts were occurring over water east of the center. By 1200
  UTC Fari's center was located over land approximately 310 km south-
  southwest of Antananarivo, moving southwestward at 17 kts. With this
  fairly quick forward motion, the center of Fari had reached the south-
  west coast of Madagascar by 30/0000 UTC and was moving out into the
  Mozambique Channel.

     Some slight re-intensification was forecast, but this never
  materialized. JTWC issued their final warning at 0000 UTC on 31 January
  with the 25-kt LOW located about 100 nm west of the southwestern coast
  of Madagascar. The system was moving southward at 11 kts and this
  general motion continued. MFR declared the remnants of Fari extra-
  tropical at 31/1800 UTC when the system was located about 350 nm south-
  southeast of Tulear, Madagascar. The extratropical depression continued
  moving southward with the final MFR bulletin placing it almost 700 nm
  south of Madagascar at 1200 UTC on 1 February.

  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     A wetter-than-normal summer season had contributed to significant
  flooding over many sections of Madagascar, including in and around the
  capital of Antananarivo. Tropical Storm Fari only served to aggravate
  the situation. The community of Marolambo was isolated due to land-
  slides on the main national road, while the communes of Masomeloka,
  Nosy Varika and Mananjary suffered serious damage to their infra-
  structures (from 12 to 35%). Fari left over 3400 persons homeless
  with major outbreaks of conjunctivitis and diarrhea reported. The
  storm flooded 70% of the rice fields in the area where it made land-
  fall and damaged 99% of banana and other fruit trees.

     More information can be found at the following website:

     <http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/vLND>

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

  Activity for January: 1 tropical LOW **

  ** - system formed east of 135E and moved westward into Perth's AOR

  NOTE!!! The Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean region will be
           covered in Part 2 of the January summary.

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

  Activity for January: 1 tropical LOW (monsoon depression) **

  ** - system upgraded to tropical cyclone status in post-analysis

  NOTE!!! The Northeast Australia/Coral Sea region will be covered in
           Part 2 of the January summary.

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for January: 1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity
                         2 tropical cyclones of hurricane intensity

  NOTE!!! The South Pacific basin will be covered in Part 2 of the
           January summary.

  *************************************************************************

                               EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
  summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.

  *************************************************************************

  AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
  from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
  distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
  Chris Landsea):

    <http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    <http://www.typhoon2000.ph> OR <http://64.235.42.210>
    <http://mpittweather.com>
    <ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>

     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:

    <http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>

                    TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

     JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical
  Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2001 (2000-2001 season for the Southern
  Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also. Recently
  added was the report for the Southern Hemisphere 2001-2002 season.

     The URL is: <http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2001 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 2001
  Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as
  well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.

     The URL is: <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>

     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.

  PREPARED BY

  Gary Padgett
  E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com
  Phone: 334-222-5327

  John Wallace (Eastern North Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Western
                 Gulf of Mexico)
  E-mail: dosidicus@aol.com

  Kevin Boyle (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
                China Sea)
  E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com

  Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
  E-mail: saclarke@iprimus.com.au

  *************************************************************************
  *************************************************************************

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to chris@siu.edu or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.



This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Dec 05 2008 - 01:15:05 EST