There were a couple of errors in the July TC summary which I posted Sunday
evening.
(1) Eric Blake's August forecast for 2002 was wrong. What I used was the
original
forecast, which was later superseded, and I missed gleaning that from
the
CSU website.
The final August forecast for 2002 was:
NS - 4 NSD - 10 H - 1 HD - 4 IH - 0
IHD - 0 NTC 22
Also, the title for the second table should read OBSERVED AUGUST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY
The paragraph following that table now reads:
As can be seen, the results for 2003 were exceptional, and the
initial forecast for August, 2002, was actually very good. The
NTC for that month was bumped up considerably by the anomalously
long-lived Hurricane Alberto. The forecasts for 2001 and 2002
were not so close, but were both on the correct side of climatology,
i.e., both called for below-normal activity, which was what was
observed. In fact, all four of the forecasts were on the correct
side of climatology--an important benchmark--especially considering
that two of the four seasons (2001 and 2003) had below-normal August
activity while the seasonal activity was well above normal.
Since 1950, in only 10 years has August failed to produce a
hurricane, and 2001-2002 is the first occurrence of two consecutive
hurricane-free Augusts. Also, in only two prior years (since 1950)
have there been as many as 3 NS in August with none reaching hurricane
intensity: 1984 and 1988.
(2) In Kevin's writeup of Hurricane Danny, there is a sentence which reads
"Danny travelled in an anti-clockwise loop...". That should read
"clockwise"
loop. No doubt he had started to write "anti-cyclonic" and changed the
choice of words, but forgot to remove "anti", and I didn't detect it either
when editing.
A corrected copy of the summary has been sent to the archival sites
(listed in the Author's Note at the end of the summary.)
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