MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
OCTOBER, 2003
Part 1
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
SPECIAL NOTE: The October summary is being disseminated in two install-
ments. This first part covers the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins,
and also contains the Feature of the Month. The second installment will
cover the Northwest Pacific and North Indian Ocean basins.
*************************************************************************
OCTOBER HIGHLIGHTS
--> Sluggish Gulf of Mexico tropical storm affects southern Mexico
--> Eastern Pacific storms affect Mexican West Coast
--> Year's fourth super typhoon forms in Western Pacific--executes
large clockwise loop
--> Minimal typhoon strikes Luzon
*************************************************************************
***** Feature of the Month for October *****
INTENSE VERY LATE-SEASON CARIBBEAN HURRICANES
The following monthly feature is a condensation of a paper presented
at the 25th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology in
San Diego in 2002. The author of the paper is Rich Henning of the
53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Keesler AFB, Mississippi, and
who is also a staff meteorologist at Eglin AFB, Florida. A special
thanks to Rich for giving me permission to feature his paper and for
proofreading it.
A. Introduction
---------------
The four Atlantic hurricane seasons of 1998-2001 have produced a
climatologically unprecedented surge in very late-season, intense
tropical cyclone (TC) development over the Caribbean Sea. Since
1950, only six TCs have undergone rapid intensification (RI) into
very intense (Category Four or higher on the Saffir/Simpson scale)
hurricanes after 20 October. Of those six, three have occurred since
October of 1998. The following table lists these six hurricanes which
will be examined in the following discussion:
Storm/Year Dates and Amount of RI CP MSW
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Fox, 1952 22-24 Oct, 59 mb in 48 hrs 934 mb 130 kts
Hattie, 1961 28-30 Oct, 71 mb in 54 hrs (1) 920 mb 140 kts
Joan, 1988 21-22 Oct, 38 mb in 24 hrs 932 mb 125 kts
Mitch, 1998 24-26 Oct, 85 mb in 60 hrs (2) 905 mb 155 kts
Lenny, 1999 16-17 Nov, 49 mb in 42 hrs (3) 933 mb 135 kts
Michelle, 2001 02-03 Nov, 38 mb in 18 hrs 933 mb 120 kts
Notes:
(1) 36 mb in 18 hrs
(2) 54 mb in 24 hrs
(3) 34 mb in 24 hrs
(4) 1952 and 2001 were neutral ENSO years; the remainder of the above
storms occurred in cold ENSO (La Nina) years.
The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs
around 10 September, so 20 October falls well after the normal seasonal
peak, both in terms of the frequency of storms and their destructive
potential. In most years, with the exception of a few extreme
climatological outliers (i.e., Kate of 1985), the onset of strong
upper-level westerlies north of the Tropic of Cancer at some point
during the month of October effectively ends the risk of any U. S.
landfalling major hurricanes. However, deeper in the tropics during
some seasons, extraordinarily favorable conditions can become
established and persist in the Caribbean Sea well into the month of
November. In fact, the most favorable conditions, both in terms of
thermodynamic and dynamic factors at any time during the entire
season (June through November) in the Atlantic/Caribbean Basin
occurred in the Caribbean Sea after 20 October during the six seasons
listed above.
B. Discussion
-------------
One thing all the six storms examined had in common was that they
intensified beneath a persistent, very high-amplitude 200-mb anti-
cyclone. Such features are only likely to develop near the end of
hurricane seasons associated with either cold ENSO (La Nina) or neutral
conditions. Such anticyclones are seldom found during warm ENSO (El
Nino) events. All six of the subject hurricanes except for Joan of
1988 formed in the monsoon trough which typically migrates into the
southwestern Caribbean at some point during October. Hurricane Joan
was an anomalously late-season Cape Verde system which formed in the
central Atlantic near 45W but did not reach hurricane intensity until
it had reached the southwestern Caribbean after transiting the northern
coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. Joan did not explode into a major
hurricane until it moved beneath a large 200-mb ridge axis, but when
it did undergo RI just off the Nicaraguan coast (38 mb in 24 hours
on 22 October, 1988) the rate of intensification was extreme and only
its movement over Central America prevented its central pressure from
likely dropping even lower than the 932 mb recorded at landfall. It
is interesting to note that while mighty Hurricane Gilbert a few weeks
earlier turned out to be a much more powerful storm (888 mb), it could
be argued that Joan enjoyed a more favorable upper-level environment.
An examination of upper-air charts shows a closed 100-mb anticyclone
over Joan during its RI event.
Studies by Halverson, Simpson, et al (1999) and Henning (2000) have
suggested that some RI events may be triggered by convective-scale
processes high within the inner core as outflow from adjacent, very
tall, cumulonimbus towers converges. This, along with the collapse
of these convective towers, may help trigger the extreme subsidence
associated with rapid eye formation. The existence of a 100-mb closed
anticyclone centered above the TC core would provide the perfect
dynamic environment for this process to occur at levels just above
the tropopause near 16 km. Rapid eye formation subsequent to an
unusually deep burst of core convection and convective collapse was
the signature of Hurricanes Mitch (1998), Lenny (1999) and Michelle
(2001). Such idealized vertical stacking of the atmosphere from the
surface to above the tropopause seldom occurs anywhere else in the
Atlantic Basin, even during what is commonly thought of as the "heart"
of the hurricane season (August and September). Instead, it is a
feature more likely to be seen in the interval of late October through
early November in the western Caribbean, but only during cold or
neutral ENSO events.
The 2000 and 2001 Atlantic hurricane seasons were characterized by
many rapidly translating TCs carried westward by strong lower tropo-
spheric flow. The resulting "bottom up" shear inhibited the develop-
ment of several TCs that otherwise appeared to be good candidates for
significant intensification. A case in point was Chantal, which
transited the western Caribbean during the climatologically favorable
period of late August and was expected to be a good candidate for RI,
but the vortex never slowed down long enough to allow Chantal to
become even a minimal hurricane. Another factor which permits these
very late-season TCs to become major hurricanes in this area is the
absence of these low-level easterly wind bursts. Storms like Mitch
and Michelle were able to "park themselves" beneath favorable upper-
level synoptic regimes long enough for mesoscale and convective
processes in the core region to unfold and allow the process of RI
to take place.
Thermodynamically speaking, conditions in the western Caribbean
are always better than anywhere else in the Atlantic Basin, and
these are usually optimal in late October. Upper-oceanic heat content
is very high in this region, and with deep thermoclines present,
developing TCs can sit over a given location for days without the
combination of mixing and upwelling significantly reducing thermo-
dynamic potential, as would be the case in most other areas in the
Atlantic Basin. Also, by late October the tropopause has normally
cooled a few degrees from mid-summer values, and with the high upper-
oceanic heat content, the thermodynamic potential is maximized over
the western Caribbean during this time of year.
During cold or neutral ENSO years, identifying the conditions
discussed in this paper may aid in determining whether or not the
required synoptic-scale prerequisites for a very late-season Caribbean
RI event are in place. However, before forecasters can reliably predict
whether or not such an event will actually occur, more research needs
to be done into the smaller scale convective and mesoscale processes
in the TC core/eyewall region which ultimately dictate their occurrence
or non-occurrence.
C. References
-------------
Halverson, J. B., et al, 1999: First TRMM satellite observations of
a deep convective burst in Supertyphoon Paka (1997). Preprints, 23rd
Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, AMS, Dallas, TX,
997-1000.
Henning, R. G., 2000: Observations of low-level wind maxima using GPS
dropsondes and their link to 200-millibar clues identifying the onset
of rapid intensification. Preprints, 24th Conference on Hurricanes
and Tropical Meteorology, AMS, Fort Lauderdale, FL, 250-251.
D. Contact Information
----------------------
Rich can be contacted at the following addresses:
Major Richard G. Henning
53rd WRS
817 H Street - Suite 134
Keesler AFB, MS 39434-2451
E-mail: richard.henning@eglin.af.mil
*************************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for October: 3 tropical storms
3 hybrid LOWs
1 major hurricane **
** - storm formed in September but reached intense hurricane status
in early October
Atlantic Tropical Activity for October
--------------------------------------
The 1950-2002 averages for the month of October are 1.64 named storms,
1.08 hurricanes, and 0.34 intense hurricanes. October, 2003, produced
3 named storms, 0 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane. This unusual
distribution is due to the fact that Hurricane Kate, which began in
September, did not reach Category 3 status until 3 October. Kate peaked
at 110 kts but fortunately remained in the central Atlantic and did not
affect any populated areas. Tropical Storm Larry formed in the Bay of
Campeche and remained slow-moving, eventually moving southward into the
Mexican coast. Mindy was a short-lived minor storm which formed from a
tropical wave near the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic and
subsequently moved northward and northeastward. Nicholas formed about
halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa around mid-month and
moved slowly northwestward for over a week, almost reaching hurricane
intensity at one point. Brief reports on the three October named storms
can be found below and contain the links to the official TPC/NHC storm
reports for the individual cyclones.
There were also several interesting systems during October which did
not warrant the issuance of advisories, but which nonetheless were of
some interest. The first was a low-pressure center which formed off the
southeastern U. S. coast during the second week of October and moved
rather rapidly northeastward. The LOW was east of Cape Hatteras late
on the 10th and was accompanied by a significant amount of convection
east-northeast of the center. The system was treated as a gale in OPC
marine warnings, although David Roth of HPC indicated that he didn't see
any gale-force winds plotted on the OPC maps. The system had become
frontal by the 12th, and the LOW subsequently became a large storm in
the North Atlantic on 14-18 October with pressures falling to around
980 mb.
The second system displaying hybrid-like features formed on 14 October
east-southeast of Bermuda. By the morning of the 15th the system had
moved northeastward and was located between Bermuda and the Azores. At
this time I noticed that the LOW appeared to have some features of a
subtropical cyclone, so I e-mailed a query to David Roth. David replied
that the system could be classed as a frontal hybrid--a MCS blew up over
and north of the LOW's warm front. The system appeared somewhat
organized on 17 October with an eye-like feature in the middle of a ring
of shallow convection, but by the evening of the 18th no convection
remained near the center. The peak winds reported in the track sent by
David, based on ship reports, were 30 kts.
The third interesting system formed northeast of the Bahamas in late
October. In its early stages it was associated with the remnants of
former Tropical Storm Nicholas. The official TPC/NHC storm report now
indicates that this LOW absorbed the extratropical remnants of Nicholas.
The system moved westward, crossing southern Florida into the Gulf of
Mexico, and finally making landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast
on 5 November. Occasional bursts of convection accompanied the LOW,
and gusts to gale-force were recorded in southern Florida. After the
system entered the Gulf of Mexico, development into a subtropical or
tropical storm was considered a possibility. Because of its association
with Nicholas' remnants, there was some debate at NHC as to whether its
name would be Nicholas or Odette in case advisories were required. It
was finally determined that the association with Nicholas was rather
tenuous, and that if a name were required, it would be Odette. Some
time ago David Roth reported that he'd learned from Jack Beven that this
system might be reclassified as an unnumbered depression.
The official TPC/NHC storm reports are all now available online, so I
have not written the usual more detailed preliminary reports. Links to
the reports can be found below with the brief discussion of each named
tropical storm.
TROPICAL STORM LARRY
(TC-17)
30 September - 6 October
--------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Larry was a sluggish-moving storm which formed in
the Bay of Campeche at the first of October from the interaction of a
westward-moving tropical wave and a cold front. The wave had nearly
developed into a tropical depression before making landfall along the
eastern coastline of the Yucatan Peninsula, but when the LOW center
redeveloped in the Bay of Campeche, cooler and drier air had been
drawn into the system, giving it more of the character of an extra-
tropical LOW, at least in the lower levels. The pressure gradient
between the LOW and a strong HIGH over the northwestern Gulf created
gale-force winds over a wide area of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
After a couple of days convection had increased around the LLCC,
warming and moistening the airmass. By late on 1 October the system
had taken on sufficient tropical characteristics to be reclassified as
Tropical Storm Larry. Any movement of the tropical cyclone northward
was blocked by strong HIGH pressure to the north, so the system moved
slowly and erratically for a few days, eventually drifting southward
and moving inland in Mexico near Paraiso in the state of Tabasco. The
peak intensity hovered around 50 kts for several days. The Best Track
file in the online storm report now gives the peak MSW as 55 kts for one
six-hour period. The remnants of Larry eventually moved into the
Eastern Pacific as a non-convective remnant LOW, but no redevelopment
occurred in that basin.
Tropical Storm Larry's rains brought some flooding to the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec. According to the NHC report, there were five fatalities
in Mexico attributable to Larry. Some additional information on Larry's
effects in Mexico can be found at the following URL:
<http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/vLND>
The official TPC/NHC storm report, written by Stacy Stewart, can be
accessed at the following link:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003larry.shtml?>
TROPICAL STORM MINDY
(TC-18)
10 - 14 October
----------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Mindy was perhaps the most inconsequential tropical
storm of the active 2003 Atlantic hurricane season. The system formed
abruptly into a minimal tropical storm from a tropical wave on the 10th
of October near the northeastern tip of Hispaniola. Mindy intensified
to only 40 kts as it moved northward, skirting the Turks and Caicos
Islands. Mindy's entire life was spent in an environment of fairly
significant southwesterly or westerly shear, and by late on the 12th
had weakened back into a tropical depression. The weakening system
then turned east-northeastward ahead of an approaching shortwave trough
and had deteriorated into a remnant LOW by the 14th.
The official TPC/NHC storm report on Mindy, authored by Miles
Lawrence, can be found at the following URL:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003mindy.shtml?>
TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS
(TC-19)
13 - 23 October
-------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Nicholas was the last storm of the Atlantic hurricane
season to form in the main development region from a tropical wave.
The cyclone spent its life in an environment of southwesterly shear which
did not allow Nicholas to attain hurricane intensity. However, the storm
came close to reaching hurricane status, peaking at 60 kts on 17 October.
Nicholas moved slowly generally northwestward or west-northwestward for
several days while located several hundred miles to the east of the
Lesser Antilles. The system weakened to a tropical depression on the
23rd well to the east of the Leeward Islands and had become more or less
an extratropical LOW by later that day. Nicholas' history as an extra-
tropical system was rather interesting. It made a large anticyclonic
loop southeast of Bermuda, then moved westward, making another loop
northeast of the Bahamas, and was finally absorbed into another LOW
which subsequently tracked westward across Florida and into the north-
central Gulf Coast. (See introductory section above for more
information on this system.)
The official TPC/NHC storm report, written by Jack Beven, is available
at the following link:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003nicholas.shtml?>
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for October: 3 hurricanes
Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for October
-----------------------------------------------
Every month thus far in the Northeast Pacific (except for May) saw
below-normal tropical cyclone activity, but October, 2003, rebounded with
a burst of three hurricanes which brought the seasonal number of named
storms and hurricanes to normal levels. The 2003 season, however, still
remains as the first since 1977 not to have produced an intense
hurricane. The average numbers of named storms, hurricanes, and intense
hurricanes for the basin over the 1971-2002 period are 2.00, 1.16, and
0.63, respectively. October saw the formation of three named storms,
all of which reached hurricane intensity. Hurricane Nora was the
strongest, peaking at 90 kts. Nora made landfall along Mexico's West
Coast but only after weakening to tropical depression status. Olaf
reached minimal hurricane intensity, weakened significantly, then
recovered and made landfall in Mexico as a fairly strong tropical storm.
The final hurricane, Patricia, remained well offshore as it pursued a
westerly trajectory south of the Mexican coastline. The official
TPC/NHC storm reports for all the cyclones are now available online.
A brief report for each storm follows and contains the links to the
official reports.
HURRICANE NORA
(TC-14E)
1 - 9 October
----------------------------------
Hurricane Nora formed south of the tip of Baja California from a
tropical wave which had moved off the African continent a couple of
weeks earlier. Nora moved northwestward while intensifying into a
hurricane, then turned abruptly eastward while weakening to a tropical
depression. The system made landfall in Mexico as a 25-kt depression
on 9 October just north of Mazatlan and quickly dissipated.
Nora was the third Eastern North Pacific hurricane of the season
to reach an estimated peak intensity of 90 kts, and probably was the
best-organized of the trio. Karl Hoarau performed a detailed Dvorak
analysis of Nora and concluded that assigning a T-number of 5.5 around
1500 UTC on 4 October at least did not break any Dvorak constraints,
and that in his opinion Nora could have possibly reached an intensity
of 100 kts around that time.
The official TPC/NHC storm report on Nora, written by Lixion Avila,
is available at the following link:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003nora.shtml?>
HURRICANE OLAF
(TC-15E)
3 - 8 October
----------------------------------
Hurricane Olaf formed on the heels of Nora and operated concurrently
with that cyclone. Some of the forecast scenarios included binary
interaction between the two systems, but this never materialized. Olaf
reached hurricane intensity briefly, then weakened significantly into
a minimal tropical storm. After this, the storm recovered as it moved
northward toward the Mexican coast, making landfall just west of
Manzanillo as an intensifying 50-kt tropical storm. Olaf brought heavy
rains to the states of Jalisco and Guanajuato. No deaths were reported,
but considerable damage to homes, roads and crops was sustained. More
information on the effects of Olaf in Mexico can be found at the
following link:
<http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/vLND>
The official TPC/NHC storm report on Olaf, authored by Miles
Lawrence, can be accessed at the following URL:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003olaf.shtml?>
HURRICANE PATRICIA
(TC-16E)
20 - 26 October
--------------------------------------
Like most of its predecessors, Hurricane Patricia formed from a
tropical wave that had entered the Pacific after crossing Central
American from the Caribbean. The season's final tropical cyclone
developed quickly, being upgraded to a tropical storm on the second
advisory, and reaching hurricane intensity only 24 hours after being
classified as a tropical depression. Patricia followed an uncomplicated
westerly track well off the southern Mexican coast, and unlike the
preceding three cyclones, did not affect Mexico. The storm reached
a peak intensity of 70 kts at 22/0000 UTC and began to weaken rather
steadily thereafter.
The official TPC/NHC storm report on Patricia, written by Richard
Pasch, is available at the following link:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003patricia.shtml?>
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for October: 6 tropical depressions **
2 typhoons
1 super typhoon
** - Four of these numbered by JTWC--of these, one became a tropical
storm in Bay of Bengal. Two systems classified as depressions
by JMA only.
NOTE!!! - The Northwest Pacific Basin will be covered in the second
installment of the October summary.
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for October: 1 tropical depression **
1 tropical storm ++
** - treated as a tropical depression by IMD only
++ - visitor from Gulf of Thailand--treated as a tropical depression
by IMD and Thailand Meteorological Department
NOTE!!! - The North Indian Ocean basin will be covered in the second
installment of the October summary.
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for October: No tropical cyclones
Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for October
----------------------------------------------------
No tropical cyclones formed in the Southwest Indian Ocean during the
month of October. A tropical depression formed in late September and
was named Tropical Storm Abaimba on 1 October. This system meandered
slowly for a few days deep in the tropics several hundred miles west of
Diego Garcia. The report on Abaimba can be found in the September
tropical cyclone summary.
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E
Activity for October: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E
Activity for October: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for October: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
to send them a copy.
*************************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
these via e-mail, please send me a message.)
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
Chris Landsea):
<http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
<http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
<http://mpittweather.com>
<ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
<http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical
Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2002 (2001-2002 season for the Southern
Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also.
The URL is: <http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 2002 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2002 Atlantic
and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.
The URL is: <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.
PREPARED BY
Gary Padgett
E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com
Phone: 334-222-5327
Kevin Boyle (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
China Sea)
E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com
Huang Chunliang (Assistance with Western Northwest Pacific, South
China Sea)
E-mail: huangchunliang@hotmail.com
Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
E-mail: saclarke@iprimus.com.au
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
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