MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
AUGUST, 2004
Second Installment
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
NOTE: Due to the incredibly high level of tropical cyclone activity
across the Northern Hemisphere during the month of August, I have
decided to disseminate the August summary in four installments in order
to expedite the storm reports and to present them in smaller, more
digestible portions. The installments will be as follows (dates refer
to storms which formed during the indicated time frame):
Part One: August 1 - 9 (Sent 7 October)
Part Two: August 10 - 16 (Sent 19 October)
Part Three: August 17 - 23, plus Monthly Feature
Part Four: August 24 - 31
*************************************************************************
SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers
will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
I wanted to include them. After a couple of months, I will move this
note to the ending section of the summary.
(1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
---------------------------------------
Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
retrieved from the following FTP site:
<ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>
Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
messages may be found at the following URL:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>
Links are also included to websites with further information about the
U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
craft Operations Center.
(2) Archived Advisories
-----------------------
All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an
example), the archived products can be found at:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>
Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
the following URL:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>
I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.
(3) Satellite Imagery
---------------------
Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The
links are:
<http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
<http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is
located in the lower left portion of the screen.
I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.
*************************************************************************
AUGUST HIGHLIGHTS
--> Destructive hurricane strikes southwestern Florida communities
--> Large severe hurricane strikes Bahamas and southeastern Florida
--> China struck by two typhoons--one very deadly
--> Two intense typhoons pass through Marianas en route to Japan
--> Typhoon grazes southeastern South Korea
*************************************************************************
***** Feature of the Month for August *****
NOTE!!! The Feature of the Month for August will be included in the
third installment of the August summary.
*************************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for August: 4 tropical storms
1 hurricane
3 intense hurricanes
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some
additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a
1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.
An interesting article discussing the atmospheric circulation
patterns which led to the incredibly active and destructive Atlantic
hurricane season, as well as information on the effects of individual
cyclones, can be found on CSU's atmospheric sciences website at the
following URL:
<http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2004/oct2004/>
Atlantic Tropical Activity for August
-------------------------------------
Following a stormless June and July, tropical cyclone activity
exploded in August to produce the most active month of August on record.
The average statistics for August (based on 1950-2003) are: 2.7 NS,
1.5 H, and 0.6 IH with an NTC of 24%. During August, 2004, a record
eight tropical storms developed with four reaching hurricane intensity.
Three of the hurricanes became intense hurricanes (Category 3 or higher
on the Saffir/Simpson scale), and the NTC for August was a staggering
84%. And all of the cyclones except Hurricane Danielle had an impact on
land. Hurricane Alex passed a scant 10 miles off Cape Hatteras while
a Category 2 hurricane, and later reached Category 3 status north of the
38th parallel while moving northeastward over the warm Gulf Stream waters
south of the Canadian Maritimes. Tropical Storm Bonnie formed in the
Gulf of Mexico and made landfall near St. Marks, FL, while Hurricane
Charley was gathering steam in the Caribbean. Charley struck western
Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, weakened slightly after crossing the
island, then rapidly intensified into a strong Category 4 hurricane
before making landfall near Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte, FL. The
storm crossed the Peninsula, maintaining hurricane intensity, and
exited near Jacksonville. Charley continued north-northeastward and
made a second U. S. landfall in South Carolina.
Hurricane Danielle formed in mid-month near the Cape Verdes but moved
northward over the eastern Atlantic, becoming an impressive Category 2
hurricane. Tropical Storm Earl formed at the same time as Danielle and
moved through the southern Windwards as a tropical storm, but lost its
circulation and was downgraded to a tropical wave in the southeastern
Caribbean. Earl's remnants continued westward, reaching the Eastern
Pacific several days later and ultimately redeveloping into Hurricane
Frank. Tropical Storms Gaston and Hermine were twins forming late in
the month along an old frontal boundary stretching eastward into the
Atlantic from the southeastern U. S. coast. Gaston formed near the
coast and struck South Carolina as a strong tropical storm near hurri-
cane intensity. Hermine formed from another LOW along the same frontal
trough west of Bermuda and moved northward, eventually reaching south-
eastern Massachusetts as a weak tropical storm.
Mighty Hurricane Frances formed on 25 August about midway between the
Lesser Antilles and Africa. Frances moved relentlessly on a west-
northwesterly track which carried it north of the Leeward Islands and
Puerto Rico as it became a large, severe Category 4 hurricane. Frances
slashed its way through the Bahamas, gradually weakening to Category 2
levels during the process. The storm made landfall in southeastern
Florida as a very large, slow-moving Category 2 hurricane--not "major"
by Saffir/Simpson standards, but still causing major damage as it crossed
the Peninsula. Frances emerged into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and
made a final landfall as a tropical storm near St. Marks, FL.
A strong tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa very late
in August and passed through the Cape Verde Islands on the 31st. The
system was quite well-organized at one point, and SAB assigned a Dvorak
classification of T2.5/2.5 at 31/1800 UTC. However, the convection
quickly began to diminish and the system was not classified as a
tropical depression at the time. The weak LOW persisted, however, and
over a week later, on 9 September, was briefly upgraded to tropical
depression status. (This system will be mentioned in the September
summary.)
Reports on all the August tropical storms and hurricanes will be
issued according to the schedule below. A special thanks to Kevin
Boyle for writing some of the Atlantic cyclone reports.
Part 1 - Alex, Bonnie
Part 2 - Charley, Danielle, Earl
Part 3 - none
Part 4 - Frances, Gaston, Hermine
HURRICANE CHARLEY
(TC-03)
9 - 16 August
-------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
A tropical wave moved off the western coast of Africa on 4 August.
The system moved rapidly westward with little sign of development until
the 8th, when it was located some 750 nm east of the Windward Islands.
Even then, associated thunderstorm activity was not well-organized.
On the early morning of the 9th the wave was located about 130 nm east of
the Windwards, moving west-northwestward at 22 kts with no signs of
tropical cyclone formation. However, later on during the morning showers
and thunderstorms became much better organized and surface pressures had
fallen significantly over the islands. A Special Tropical Disturbance
Statement was issued at 1345 UTC which noted that Barbados had reported
wind gusts to 46 kts during the previous couple of hours. Subsequent
surface observations from Trinidad and Margarita showed west-southwest
and west-northwest winds, respectively, of about 10 kts, establishing
the fact that a surface circulation existed. Hence, advisories were
initiated at 1745 UTC on Tropical Depression 03, located about 45 nm
southeast of Grenada and moving westward at 19 kts. Visible satellite
imagery depicted a very well-organized system with distinct banding
features. TD-03 was forecast to intensify to hurricane intensity in
72 hours.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
TD-03 faired rather well as it traversed the typically unfavorable
southeastern Caribbean Sea. During the evening banding appeared less
impressive than earlier, but new convection formed near the center of
circulation. At 0900 UTC on 10 August the depression was upgraded to
Tropical Storm Charley, located about 390 nm south-southeast of Santo
Domingo and moving west-northwestward at 21 kts. The cyclone had become
better organized overnight, and even though outer bands of deep
convection were currently minimal, the circulation occupied a large
envelope and outflow was excellent in all directions. Dvorak classi-
fications from all agencies were T2.5. As the day progressed Charley
slowly became better organized, and the first U. S. Air Force Reserves
reconnaissance flight into the storm, around 2000 UTC, found a tight
center with a CP of 999 mb and peak FLWs of 72 kts just to the northeast
of the center. Based on the aircraft data and a CI estimate of 55 kts
from TAFB, Charley's MSW was increased to 55 kts at 11/0300 UTC. The
storm was still moving rapidly west-northwestward from a position about
260 nm east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
The reconnaissance mission into the storm around 11/0600 UTC found
that the CP had dropped to 995 mb with a closed eyewall present. A
flight around midday found peak FLWs of 80 kts at 850 mb; hence, Charley
was upgraded to the season's second hurricane at 1800 UTC when located
approximately 80 nm south of Kingston, Jamaica. The young hurricane
was moving west-northwestward at the slightly slower pace of 16 kts.
During the evening Charley was sporting a small, closed eyewall of only
8 nm as it began to turn slightly more toward the northwest. The storm
continued to strengthen during the night--winds were upped to 75 kts at
12/0600 UTC. An upper-level LOW to the west had been inhibiting outflow
in that sector, but this feature began retreating westward away from the
cyclone, leading to a lessening of shear and improved outflow. By 1500
UTC Charley was moving northwestward at 15 kts, and the track gradually
became more north-northwesterly as the day progressed. In an inter-
mediate advisory at 1800 UTC, Charley's MSW was upped to 90 kts, making
it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale. The hurricane was
then located about 165 nm south-southeast of Havana, Cuba. This upgrade
was based on a peak FLW of 105 kts and a 92-kt dropsonde surface wind.
The CP was only down to 980 mb, but the storm was moving into a region
of higher-than-average surface pressures, implying that the usual
pressure/wind relationship might not be valid.
At 13/0300 UTC Hurricane Charley was moving north-northwestward toward
the southern coast of Cuba, being located between the Isle of Youth and
the Cuban mainland about 45 nm south of Havana. By 0600 UTC the hurri-
cane had almost crossed the island and was situated only 22 km west of
downtown Havana. Even though operationally Charley was a Category 2
hurricane when it reached Cuba, meteorological observations from the
island indicate that the hurricane had reached intense hurricane status,
or Category 3 on the Saffir/Simpson scale. The maximum 1-min avg wind
recorded in Cuba was 103 kts with a minimum SLP of 966 mb. A storm
surge of 3.7 m was measured in Playa Cajio along the southern coast of
Havana Province. (More of the Cuban observations follow in Section C.)
Reconnaissance observations revealed that Charley did not weaken very
much at all after crossing Cuba. Shortly after the eye had cleared the
northern coast, a plane found a CP of 970 mb with peak 700-mb winds of
104 kts. Also, Key West radar showed Doppler winds higher than 100 kts.
The MSW was upped to 95 kts at 0900 UTC. Things began to happen very
rapidly and dramatically during the morning of Friday, 13 August. An
eyewall dropsonde around 13/1200 UTC indicated that the MSW was still
near 95 kts, but the CP had dropped 5 mb to 965 mb between 1200 and 1400
UTC. By 1500 UTC Charley's motion had become northerly at 16 kts, and
two hours later the storm was moving north-northeastward at 18 kts. The
1700 UTC intermediate advisory upgraded Charley to a Category 3 hurricane
with 110-kt winds, located about 60 nm south-southwest of Ft. Myers, FL.
At about the same time, a reconnaissance aircraft found that the pressure
had fallen further to 954 mb and measured a peak FLW of 141 kts. On
this basis, a special advisory was issued at 1800 UTC upgrading Charley
to a Category 4 hurricane with a MSW of 125 kts.
Charley's pressure continued to fall, and the final reconnaissance
fix at 1956 UTC, just before the eye reached the coast, found a CP of
941 mb and a peak FLW of 148 kts. The eye of Charley moved inland near
Cayo Costa around 2000 UTC. The operational MSW at the time of landfall
was 125 kts, and this value has been widely reported in the media as the
landfall intensity. However, the 13/2100 UTC NHC discussion bulletin
noted that the FLW of 148 kts corresponds to a surface MSW of 130 kts,
and I have learned from a reliable source that in all probability
Charley's official landfall intensity will be 130 kts. An unofficial
gust of 110 kts was recorded near Punta Gorda along with a 943.6 mb
surface pressure. Charley began weakening as it moved quickly north-
northeastward across the Florida Peninsula. At 2300 UTC the center was
about 100 km south-southwest of Orlando with the MSW estimated at 100
kts, and by 14/0300 UTC had passed very near that city and was nearing
the Atlantic coast near Daytona Beach. The estimated MSW had decreased
to 75 kts by this time, based on surface and WSR-88D Doppler wind data.
By 0600 UTC on 14 August the center of Hurricane Charley had emerged
into the Atlantic just off the Florida coast and was located about 165 nm
south-southwest of Charleston, South Carolina. A reconnaissance plane
found peak FLWs of 88 kts in the eastern quadrant with a CP of 994 mb,
so the MSW remained at 75 kts in the 14/0900 UTC advisory. By 1200 UTC
the storm was located about 30 nm south-southeast of Charleston and was
racing to the north-northeast at 25 kts. At 1500 UTC radar and surface
observations indicated that the center of Charley was on the coast near
Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, with the CP down to 989 mb. The MSW by
this time had dropped to 65 kts, and the former Category 4 hurricane
was downgraded to a tropical storm three hours later when located over
eastern North Carolina about 55 km north of Wilmington. Wrightsville
Beach reported a sustained wind of 61 kts at 1736 UTC, so the MSW was
held at 60 kts for the 2100 UTC advisory.
At 15/0000 UTC the center of Tropical Storm Charley was located just
east of Virginia Beach, Virginia, and racing northeastward at 29 kts.
Winds had decreased to near 45 kts and the storm was beginning to lose
tropical characteristics. By 15/0600 UTC Charley was passing about
35 nm east of Atlantic City, New Jersey, with peak winds of only minimal
tropical storm intensity. Charley made a final landfall around 0900 UTC
on Long Island near the town of Farmingville, and by 1200 UTC was located
in the vicinity of Boston. The final TPC/NHC advisory on Charley was
issued at 15/1500 UTC with the system located east of Cape Cod and still
moving quickly northeastward. The extratropical remnant was forecast to
lose its identity in a frontal zone, and apparently this happened, as
OPC made its final reference to the post-Charley system at 16/0000 UTC.
Hurricane Charley's recurvature at a fairly low latitude in the Gulf
of Mexico was more typical of a late September or October hurricane.
The rather unusual track was due to an unseasonably strong shortwave
trough moving into the southeastern U. S. This same trough had recurved
Tropical Storm Bonnie into the eastern Florida Panhandle the day before
Charley savagely struck the Charlotte Harbor communities. Charley was
the first of four destructive hurricanes to strike the state of Florida
during the historic 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, and the first of
three to bring hurricane-force winds to many of the inland counties
located on the Peninsula. Hurricane Charley was also the first major
hurricane to strike the Charlotte Harbor since at least 1944. Following
is a list of the stronger hurricanes to strike this area of Florida
since 1871, and none appears to have been anywhere near as intense as
Charley:
(1) Oct, 1873 - A major hurricane made landfall in the Charlotte Harbor
area, destroying Punta Rassa (this from ATLANTIC HURRICANES by Dunn
and Miller). The reanalyzed Best Track file assigns a MSW of about
100 kts and a SLP of 959 mb at landfall. Records indicate that the
surge reached a height of 4.3 metres.
(2) Sep, 1894 - A Category 2 hurricane with winds of 90 kts made landfall
in the Charlotte Harbor area.
(3) Oct, 1910 - The famous "loop" hurricane made landfall a little to the
south of Port Charlotte and to the north of Fort Myers. The
reanalyzed Best Track file assigns a MSW of 105 kts at landfall.
(4) Oct, 1944 - The final hurricane of 1944 made landfall between the
Charlotte Harbor area and Tampa. Based on the old Best Track file
(the ongoing reanalysis has not yet reached 1944) the MSW appears
to have been about 105 kts.
It is interesting to note that all the major hurricanes affecting this
region occurred after the first of October except for Hurricane Charley,
which illustrates the fact that Charley's track was most unusual for a
mid-August hurricane.
C. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
(1) Cuba
--------
As Charley crossed Cuba hurricane-force winds extended about 13 nm
to the right of the center and 10 nm to the left of the track--a very
small hurricane indeed. As noted above, the strongest wind measured
on the island during Charley's passage was a 1-min avg sustained wind
of 103 kts at the Vaisala meteorological station located at the airport
in Playa Baracoa, just west of Havana City, and just inside the eastern
eyewall. The station measured peak gusts of 130 kts and a minimum SLP
of 974 mb. Another Vaisala station at San Antonio de los Banos measured
a maximum 1-min avg wind of 97 kts, gusting to 115 kts, before the
sensors were blown away. The station in Guira de Melena, also in the
eastern eyewall, reported a MSW of 92 kts, peak gusts of 116 kts, and
a minimum SLP of 971.6 mb. The minimum SLP of 966 mb mentioned earlier
was estimated, based on a consideration of the available data and the
distance of the various stations from the center of the eye.
Charley was a rather dry hurricane in Cuba--rainfall amounts of 100 to
150 mm were reported only in restricted areas near the path of the eye.
Eyewitnesses (no pun intended) reported that the stars could be clearly
seen during the passage of Charley's eye, and there were some reports of
a reddish-like appearance of the sky within the eye. A storm surge of
3.7 m above MSL was observed in Playa Cajio, where 360 houses were simply
swept away. The ocean spread up to 2.6 km inland at that point, and
penetrated 1.5 km inland at Surgidero de Batabano, where the surge height
was 2.8 m.
(The information in this section comes from an excellent Preliminary
Report on Hurricane Charley in Cuba prepared by Dr. Jose Rubiera, Dr.
Maritza Ballester and Dr. Cecilia Gonzalez, National Forecasting Center,
Instituto de Meteorologia, Cuba.)
(2) Reconnaissance Aircraft
---------------------------
A few comments from Rich Henning, a member of the U. S. Air Force's
53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron:
"In the case of Charley, the MSLP hung around 970 mb all night (with
a 700-mb core temperature of only 12-14 C), then it dropped 29 mb (with
a 10-mb drop in about 90 minutes) as the 700-mb core temperature spiked
up to 20 C and the eye contracted to 5 miles. The 13/1930 UTC fix
included an astonishing description of 138-kt winds ONE MILE southeast
of the eye center." Charley provided a fascinating case study of meso-
scale core processes gone amok.
As noted above, the lowest CP and peak FLW measured by reconnaissance
aircraft was 941 mb and 148 kts, respectively, at 13/1956 UTC--shortly
before Charley's eye made landfall in Florida.
(3) Florida
-----------
As noted above, one of the NHC advisories alluded to an unofficial
gust (estimated) of 110 kts along with a 943.6 mb SLP measured at Punta
Gorda. Storm chaser Mike Theiss was in the Charlotte Harbor area during
the passage of the eye (which lasted only 5 minutes) and recorded a
minimum pressure of 944 mb. Peak gusts of 90 kts and 95 kts were
estimated at Arcadia and Wauchula, respectively, by Emergency Management
personnel. The peak gust recorded by a NWS station was 97 kts at Punta
Gorda at 13/2035 UTC.
The following table contains reports of sustained winds (2-min avg)
exceeding storm force (48 kts):
County City Dir (deg) Spd (kts) Date/Time (UTC)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Osceola Kissimmee ??? 53 14 / 0035
Orange Orlando 160 67 14 / 0105
Orange Orlando 130 57 14 / 0129
Seminole Sanford 120 63 14 / 0210
Volusia Daytona Beach 200 48 14 / 0353
Volusia Ormond Beach 100 59 14 / 0315
The following table contains reports of peak gusts exceeding hurricane
force (64 kts):
County City Dir (deg) Spd (kts) Date/Time (UTC)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Osceola Kissimmee ??? 65 14 / 0035
Orange Orlando 160 91 14 / 0105
Orange Orlando 120 74 14 / 0129
Seminole Sanford 120 80 14 / 0210
Volusia Daytona Beach 200 72 14 / 0353
Volusia Ormond Beach 100 75 14 / 0315
Note: The above values represent the highest found. Many of the ASOS
sites failed during the height of the hurricane.
Two NASA wind towers near Cape Canaveral at 16.5 m above ground level
reported sustained winds or 53 kts and 56 kts with both reporting peak
gusts of 75 kts. The Wind Shear Alert System (33.5-45.7 m above ground
level) at Daytona Beach International Airport reported a maximum gust
of 84 kts.
As Hurricane Charley passed through Florida rather quickly, rainfall
amounts were not particularly impressive. The highest storm total amount
was 141 mm at Sanford in Seminole County, recorded between 12/1200 and
14/1200 UTC. Kissimmee recorded 132 mm during the same 48-hour period.
Apopka in Orange County recorded a 24-hour total of 102 mm between
13/0400 and 14/0400 UTC.
Estimates place the magnitude of the peak storm surge at 4-5 metres.
More meteorological observations can be found at the following links:
<http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/CharleyWebPage.shtml>
<http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/charley/PSHMLB.txt>
D. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
(1) Cuba
--------
There was a lot of damage reported to housing, crops, trees, power and
telephone lines and overall infrastructure in the western portion of
Havana Province, in the west of Havana City and the eastern part of Pinar
del Rio. However, only four fatalities were reported from this major
Category 3 hurricane, the first of such an intensity to strike Havana
Province since 1948. Very severe damage was sustained by agriculture.
Hundreds of hectares of banana plantations were destroyed by the winds.
Even edible root plantations, such as yucca, were heavily damaged.
Citrus plantations were stripped of fruit, and tens of thousands of
mango, guava and avocado trees were also blown down and the fruit lost.
Reports indicate that some 40,500 homes were heavily damaged and 8300
houses totally destroyed.
In addition to the four fatalities reported in Cuba, one death was
attributed to the hurricane in Jamaica.
(2) Florida
-----------
Hurricane Charley was the second most destructive hurricane ever to
strike the state of Florida, the most destructive being Category 5
Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The most concentrated destruction was in
the communities of Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte in the Charlotte
Harbor area of southwest Florida. Total dollar estimates of insured
losses range from around $7.5 to $11 billion, with total damages likely
to exceed $15 billion. In the Charlotte Harbor area, approximately
10,000 homes were destroyed with another 16,000 severely damaged. Many
of these were no doubt mobile homes, which are not designed to withstand
the extreme winds encountered in intense tropical cyclones. On the
day after the passage of Charley an estimated 1.3 million persons were
without electrical power. One source estimated the number of persons
initially without power at 2 million.
An estimated 1.4 million people evacuated their homes prior to the
approach of Hurricane Charley. Some 2300 stayed in local shelters.
A close call came at Arcadia, about 20 miles inland, where one wall
collapsed at a civic center which was being utilized as an evacuation
shelter for some 1200 people. Very fortunately, only one person was
injured as a result of the incident and her injuries were minor.
Charley's winds played havoc with small aircraft at the Charlotte
Airport with many planes ripped apart by the fierce winds. An observer
reported seeing one small plane flying down the runway as if were about
to take off.
The U. S. Labor Department reported that new applications for
unemployment insurance increased by a seasonally adjusted 10,000 to
343,000 for the week ending 21 August. Half of this 10,000 rise was
attributed to claims stemming from Hurricane Charley.
Hurricane Charley was directly responsible for nine deaths in Florida
with 16 more indirectly attributable to the storm. Most of the indirect
deaths occurred post-storm and were due to things like electrocution,
heart problems, carbon monoxide poisoning, automobile accidents, and heat
strokes. One man died when he fell from a tree, and another died when
a tree fell on him. Many post-storm injuries were reported due to things
like stepping on nails, tripping over debris, chainsaw accidents, auto-
mobile accidents at intersections where traffic lights were inoperative,
bruises, cut and strains. Hurricane-related stress also caused an
increase in heart attacks and respiratory problems, and many people
became ill with diarrhea and vomiting after drinking contaminated tap
water.
(3) Carolinas and Northward
---------------------------
The Property Claims Service reports that insured damages due to
Charley were estimated at $25 million in North Carolina and $20 million
in South Carolina. In the state of Rhode Island, one death was reported
as a direct casualty of Hurricane Charley.
(4) Additional Information
--------------------------
More information on storm damage can be found in the reports prepared
by the Tampa and Melbourne NWS offices referenced in Section C.3 above.
In addition, many articles dealing with the impact of Hurricane Charley
and subsequent storms may be found at the following URL:
<http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/vLND>
Following are some links supplied by John Wallace which contain
additional information on the impact of Hurricane Charley:
<http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/weather/special/storm/2004/atlan
tic/charley/news.html>
<http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/business/epaper/2004/08/24/a1d_i
nsure_0824.html>
<http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/fromthefield/109421485563.htm>
E. Storm Chaser Reports
-----------------------
Following are short write-ups sent by storm chasers Mike Theiss and
Jim Leonard, who were eyewitnesses to Charley's fury in the Charlotte
Harbor area.
(1) Mike Theiss
---------------
"I documented Hurricane Charley at Charlotte Harbor and never imagined
this storm would turn out to be like this. I had a window blown out from
a piece of a flying roof, a large telephone pole with a big transformer
landed behind my truck, and I had debris slamming against my car during
the real intense eyewall which lasted for about 20 minutes. All I can
say is "UNREAL". I had heard reports of this storm intensifying, but I
had no idea it got as strong as it did. I recorded a pressure of 944 mb
and was in "Awe" in the eye of this beast. The core was very small and
tight and I was in the eye for around 5 minutes. The damage in the area
I was in reminded me of Andrew's aftermath, but in a smaller area. I
observed concrete structures blown apart, every building at least
de-roofed, trees snapped in half, and large billboard signs with only
the poles left twisted beyond belief. I drove a few miles down the road
and the damage was bad, but nowhere near the devastation in Charlotte
Harbor. I haven't seen any radar loops yet of it making landfall and
can't wait. I will post pics in a few days. I have to focus on getting
my truck in the shop to get repaired."
More pictures and video clips may be found at Mike's website:
<http://www.eyeinthetropics.com/>
(2) Jim Leonard
---------------
"First of all, many thanks to Eric Blake for his frequent radar
updates during the entire afternoon of the chase. We started the morning
at a friend's house at Cape Coral, a suburb of Ft. Myers. By late
morning I noticed the eye of the hurricane began to show a slight NNE
heading, so the plan to head up to Sarasota was adjusted southward. As
we headed over the bridge from Cape Coral to the city of Ft. Myers, I saw
a long rainfree cloud base approaching from the south. I turned the van
around and went back to the bridge to get in a better position. The
cloud line moved over our position without doing anything when all of a
sudden overhead and to the NE I noticed rapid scud motion which I figured
would lead to a potential tornado. At that moment I saw a large spray
ring on the bay about a half mile to the northeast. We could only see
this for a few seconds as there were too many trees in the way. Then a
heavy rain over us occurred and obscured the vortex. Once the rain let
up the cloud base circulation moved NW. At that time I saw rapidly
circulating scud tags for a couple minutes more before losing sight of
it.
"As the afternoon wore on we drove north and south between Ft. Myers
and North Port like a yo-yo as the center of the hurricane wobbled NNE.
An average-sized eyewall would have been much easier to place ourselves
in its track. As this storm was so small in size you had to be really
accurate to get in its path. Also, we had to find the safest structure
and have the best tree scenes during the strongest winds. We ended up
in the ground-level parking garage of a hospital between Port Charlotte
and Charlotte Harbor. While searching for our spot the winds were
averaging 40 to 50 kts in gusts when a sudden gust of 70 kts occurred.
We had to take cover fast! A second gust probably 60 kts or so occurred
as a tree branch blasted out my left rear window of the van--this while
video was rolling, great audio! Minutes later we positioned ourselves
in the parking garage as all hell broke loose!
"The core of this hurricane was so small and its forward movement so
rapid that the winds increased amazingly fast. We were probably in
an area of better constructed buildings as just a few blocks either side
of us damage to structures was much worse. During the first half winds
in my estimation were in the 120 to 130 mph range. There were many
sections of roofing material flying around and I filmed the roof of a
bank as it came off in pieces across the parking lot from us. The wind
speed dropped off dramatically as the northern portion of the eye moved
across--this took about two or three minutes--when all of a sudden the
winds shifted to the NNE, then eventually north with the rain really
blinding at this time. I estimated the gusts at the height of this part
as high as 135 to 140 mph. The strongest winds on the back side lasted
about 15 to 20 minutes. It was like going through a 15-mile-wide
tornado! About 30 minutes later we began a brief damage survey before we
headed back home. I noticed how the intense damage was definitely in
streaks, which is typical in rapidly deepening hurricanes. The eyewall
was characterized by very turbulent gusts, which is a common occurrence
when the eyewall convection is very intense. This would account for
the streaks of intense damage. This was first noted in Hurricane Celia
in August, 1970, in Corpus Christi, Texas, a storm with a similar central
pressure and storm size at landfall."
More information may be available on Jim's website:
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
HURRICANE DANIELLE
(TC-04)
13 - 21 August
--------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
A strong and well-organized tropical wave, possibly already at
tropical depression intensity, left the African coast on 12 August and
was first mentioned in NHC/TPC's Tropical Weather Outlook at 2230 UTC
later that day. The wave was accompanied by a broad LOW, and moving in
a westerly direction, was centred around 260 nm southeast of the Cape
Verde Islands by early the next morning. The disturbance proceeded to
develop quickly and was soon upgraded to Tropical Depression Four at
13/1500 UTC. The system was designated Tropical Storm Danielle at
14/0300 UTC while passing south of the Cape Verde Islands. Danielle's
MSW may have reached 35 kts six hours earlier, but the forecaster chose
to wait until satellite CI estimates from TAFB and SAB had both
reached a consensus of 2.5.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Tropical Storm Danielle was heading westward through a low shear
environment and warm SSTs southeast of a mid-level ridge. These
conditions encouraged gradual strengthening during the 14th. Banding
features became better defined over the southern semicircle before
beginning to wrap around the centre at 2100 UTC on 14 August. The
MSW had risen to 55 kts by this time, and a 14/2247 UTC SSM/I microwave
pass detected a developing eye. Danielle intensified into the first
Cape Verde hurricane of the year at 15/0300 UTC when the MSW reached
65 kts and CI estimates reached 4.0. Continued strengthening on the
15th brought the sustained winds up to 85 kts by 2100 UTC. Just prior
to this, the wind field surrounding Hurricane Danielle was reduced after
a 15/2016 UTC QuikScat pass had indicated a smaller wind radii than
previously analyzed. After this amendment, hurricane-force winds
extended 20 nm from the centre while gales reached out as far as 90 nm
in the southeastern quadrant.
Danielle's track gradually curved towards the northwest on the 16th
as a large area of troughing began to develop over the western Atlantic.
The hurricane was looking healthy on infrared satellite images with a
circular CDO punctured by a small eye, and good outflow was present in
all quadrants. Danielle arrived at its peak strength of 90 kts at
16/0300 UTC, and this intensity held constant for the rest of the day.
A single enhanced BD curve infrared image at 16/1800 UTC suggested a
stronger system with CI estimates of 5.5., so for a short time Danielle's
MSW could possibly have reached 100 kts. (It will be interesting to see
if the winds are upped any during post-storm analysis.) By 16/2100 UTC
Hurricane Danielle had turned north-northwestwards with its CDO less
symmetrical than earlier in the day, a sign that the environment was
becoming more hostile. The 10-nm eye persisted through the night, but
this feature had faded somewhat by 17/0300 UTC. However, it continued
to make intermittent appearances throughout the day. Veering northwards,
Danielle remained a 90-kt hurricane until 17/2100 UTC when the MSW
started to drop off.
The intensity dropped a little further at 0300 UTC on 18 August as
Hurricane Danielle tracked northward. The partially-exposed LLCC
had become difficult to locate by this time as a result of southwesterly
shear and dry air intrusion, but both microwave imagery and a 17/2100
UTC QuikScat pass indicated that the centre was located southwest of
the deep convection. The cyclone began to weaken more rapidly and was
barely at hurricane strength at 18/0900 UTC. It was downgraded to a
55-kt tropical storm six hours later as it turned towards the north-
northeast and began to decelerate. At 18/2100 UTC the centre of
Danielle passed near a drifting buoy which measured a CP of 1008.6 mb.
Despite the shear Danielle continued to generate bursts of convection
on the 19th, mainly to the northeast of the LLCC.
The storm was about to perform a rather jagged hairpin turn over the
next few days within a low to mid-level ridge, south of a passing short-
wave trough, and east of a strong mid to upper-level LOW near 33N/45W.
The hurricane was being steered in the flow between the mid to upper-
level LOW and the subtropical ridge. Danielle headed northeastward,
then eastward and finally wound up stationary at 19/2100 UTC. For
the next day or two Danielle was expected to meander in the same general
area. This was a completely different scenario to what some of the
forecast models had been initially forecasting. Danielle was
originally predicted to undergo extratropical transition and pass
through the Azores island chain. Instead, a HIGH built in the vicinity
of the Azores and blocked the cyclone's path in that direction.
In defiance of hostile upper-level shear and high surface pressures,
sporadic bursts of deep convection continued to fire up northeast of the
well-defined centre. Danielle was maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm
for the majority of the 20th. It was downgraded to a tropical depression
at 2100 UTC when most or all of the convective activity had subsided
and only the LLCC remained. Movement continued to be very slow and
erratic but eventually a northwesterly crawl became established late on
the 20th. This heading persisted into the 21st before Danielle assumed
a more westerly track. The system was dropped by NHC at 21/1500 UTC when
the final advisory was issued. The depression was then located a little
over 740 nm west-southwest of Azores. The remnant circulation crept
slowly westwards until the 22nd when movement became virtually static.
As the ex-hurricane started to drift slowly north on the 23rd, convection
redeveloped near to and east of the center, and the 23/1502 UTC STWO
mentioned the possibility that Danielle could regenerate back into a
tropical depression. However, deep convection soon diminished and
conditions started to become more unfavourable for redevelopment. The
LOW continued north to northwest at a quicker pace on the 24th. Finally,
whatever was left of Danielle was gradually incorporated into the warm
sector of a mid-latitude LOW on the 25th.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
No damage or casualties are known as a result of Hurricane Danielle.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
TROPICAL STORM EARL
(TC-05)
13 - 16 August
---------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The tropical wave that became Tropical Storm Earl exited the coast of
Africa around 6 August. It was at first a rather dull, uninteresting
feature as it tracked its way westwards across the tropical Atlantic.
The wave was initially mentioned in NHC/TPC's STWO at 1130 UTC on
12 August when it was centred about 1100 nm east of the Windward
Islands. A slow development potential was noted in this statement. The
disturbance gradually became a little better organized through the 12th
and 13th. As environmental conditions appeared to be favourable for
cyclogenesis, the 13/1630 UTC STWO warned that a tropical depression
could form within a day or two and that interests in the Lesser Antilles
and the eastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the system over the
next few days.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Tropical Depression Five formed at 2100 UTC on the 13th roughly 910 nm
or so east-southeast of the Windward Islands in an area historically
hostile for tropical cyclone development. However, it was this same
general area that had spawned Hurricane Charley only a few days before.
TD-05 was moving rather quickly westwards--perhaps too fast for its own
good--through a favourable environment, so further strengthening seemed
likely. However, it took another 24 hours for the depression to reach
tropical storm status. TD-05 was named Earl at 14/2100 UTC, by which
time its rapid forward speed of around 20 kts had taken it to within
nearly 350 nm southeast of Barbados. In response to the upgrade, the
governments of the Windward Islands each issued a tropical storm warning.
Tropical Storm Earl's motion was controlled by the steering flow provided
by a strong mid-level ridge to its north, and this feature was forecast
to persist and continue driving the tropical cyclone smartly westwards
for the rest of its short Caribbean cruise.
Some models gave the U. S. a fright by suggesting that in the long-
term Earl could recurve northwards as a Category 2 hurricane towards the
Gulf Coast or even Florida. Thankfully, this scenario failed to
materialize, especially so soon after Charley's devastating landfall
in Florida. Even though the overall cloud pattern appeared slightly
elongated on the morning of the 15th, deep convection increased
significantly near the centre and there was a little strengthening.
Satellite intensity estimates had reached T3.0, but because banding
features were barely discernible, the MSW was increased to only 40 kts,
which turned out to be the maximum intensity of Earl. While Earl's
satellite representation at 15/1500 UTC showed an organized system
with impressive outflow channels, the Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance
aircraft investigating Earl struggled to find a well-defined closed LLCC.
Meanwhile, the system was bombing through the Windward Islands and passed
just south of Grenada at around 15/1800 UTC before entering the Caribbean
Sea.
Tropical Storm Earl deteriorated dramatically overnight, and by the
next morning convection had weakened markedly and the impressive outflow
pattern that the system possessed earlier had been replaced by a uniform
easterly flow. In fact, QuikScat data revealed that Earl had degenerated
to the extent that it resembled an open wave. The government of
Venezuela refused to allow aircraft into their airspace for
reconnaissance purposes so NHC decided to continue advisories for a
little while longer, especially as Earl was in close proximity to land.
Microwave and QuikScat imagery indicated that the poorly-defined centre
or wave axis was racing ahead of the convection. The MSW was kept at
40 kts despite T-numbers having dropped to 2.0 (30 kts), and this was due
to a burst of deep convection near the alleged centre. An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft reached the storm the next morning and was unable
to find any sign of a closed circulation associated with Earl. A Quik-
Scat pass also failed to locate the LLCC. On this basis, NHC downgraded
Earl to an open wave with 35-kt winds and issued the final advisory at
16/1500 UTC. The wave continued to generate winds of tropical storm
force as it passed south of Jamaica. Models continued to indicate the
possibility that the remnant of Earl could re-instate itself as a
tropical cyclone and reach hurricane strength as it tracked westward
through the Caribbean. However, a planned follow-up reconnaissance
flight to investigate the tropical wave on the 17th was cancelled since
the system failed to show any signs of re-organization. Continuing its
journey westwards, the remnants of Earl moved inland over Honduras/
northern Nicaragua later that same day, ultimately re-emerging over
Eastern Pacific waters around 18 or 19 August and redeveloping as
Hurricane Frank.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
According to the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency,
damages on Grenada were minor and amounted to no more than broken
branches, a few fallen trees, and downed power lines. Ten houses had
their roofs blown off while one home suffered partial roof damage.
There were reports of flooding in the St. George parish area of
Grenada, and the Point Saline International airport was closed for a
short time. There were no reports of injuries or casualties. Also,
there were no reports of casualties or damages from any of the other
Windward Islands due to Tropical Storm Earl.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for August: 1 tropical depression
3 tropical storms **
1 hurricane
** - one of these storms (Howard) became a hurricane and intense
hurricane in early September
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
locations west of longitude 140W): discussions, public advisories,
forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have
been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to
sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
noted.
Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for August
----------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone activity was near normal in the Eastern North Pacific
during August. August averages for the period 1971-2003 are about 4 NS,
2 H, and one IH. August, 2004, produced four NS but only one hurricane;
however, the final storm, Howard, became a Category 4 hurricane during
the early days of September. Estelle formed rather far west from the
same tropical wave which had earlier spawned Atlantic Hurricane Charley
and moved into the Central North Pacific. The other three storms formed
much nearer the Mexican coast but moved generally northwestward away
from the mainland with only minimal effects felt along the coastline.
Reports on all the August tropical storms and hurricanes will be
issued according to the schedule below. A special thanks to John
Wallace and Kevin Boyle for writing most of the NEP cyclone reports.
Part 1 - none
Part 2 - none
Part 3 - Estelle, Frank (including TD-09E)
Part 4 - Georgette, Howard
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for August: 4 tropical depressions **
3 tropical storms ++
4 typhoons
2 super typhoons
** - all of these were classified as tropical depressions by JMA only
++ - one of these (Malou/15W) was classified as a tropical storm by
several of the Asian TCWCs, but not by JTWC, while another (21W)
was classified as a tropical storm by JTWC only
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion
tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All
references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
unless otherwise noted.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
sends data taken from synoptic observations around the Northwest
Pacific basin. A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for
the assistance they so reliably provide.
In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the
JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
area of warning responsibility.
Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for August
----------------------------------------------
After a rather quiet July, which had come on the heels of a very
active June, the tropics of the Western North Pacific exploded to
produce a very active August. I do not yet have monthly statistics
available for the NWP basin, but if August, 2004, was not the most
active August on record there, it certainly must rank in the Top Five.
Nine systems reached tropical storm intensity, taking into account the
classifications from all the warning agencies. Six of these reached
typhoon intensity and two became super typhoons per JTWC's analysis.
All but one of the six typhoons struck populated areas in the NWP
basin:
Meranti - remained at sea
Rananim - China
Megi - South Korea
Chaba - Marianas, Japan
Aere - Taiwan, China
Songda - Marianas, Okinawa, Japan
Four systems were mentioned as tropical depressions in the High Seas
bulletins issued by JMA. The first of these was carried as a 30-kt
depression on 6 and 7 August. At 06/0600 UTC it was located roughly
600 nm east-southeast of Iwo Jima. The system moved generally in a
northeasterly direction and had weakened by 1200 UTC on the 7th, being
then located about 600 nm west-northwest of Wake Island. JTWC did
carry this system in their STWOs, and at one point assigned a fair
potential for development. A track, based on JMA's bulletins, was
included for this system in the companion August cyclone tracks file.
The remaining three JMA depressions were listed only in the Summary
portion of the High Seas bulletins. One weak circulation was located
in the vicinity of 20N/141E on 8 August and remained quasi-stationary.
Another depression, near 18N/133E, was mentioned only once, at 13/1200
UTC. The final of the three occurred on 27 and 28 August, being quasi-
stationary just west of the International Dateline near 10N/178E. JTWC
did give this system a fair development potential at one point. No
tracks were included for any of these weaker JMA depressions in the
August tracks file.
Reports on all the August tropical storms and typhoons will be issued
according to the schedule below. A special to Kevin Boyle for writing
several of the NWP cyclone reports, and to Huang Chunliang for sending
much information regarding meteorological observations as well as damage
and casualty figures.
Part 1 - Meranti, Malou, Rananim/Karen
Part 2 - Malakas, Megi/Lawin
Part 3 - Chaba, Aere/Marce
Part 4 - 21W, Songda/Nina
TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS
(TC-17W / TS 0414)
10 - 13 August
------------------------------------------
Malakas: contributed by the Philippines, means 'strong' or 'powerful'
A. Storm Origins
----------------
During the second week of August a reverse-oriented monsoon trough
extended from the Philippine Sea northeastward for hundreds of miles.
Several weak circulations formed and died along the trough. One
disturbed area with an exposed LLCC can be seen in satellite imagery
around 22N/150E at 0600 UTC on 8 August. JMA began mentioning this
system as a weak tropical depression at 09/1200 UTC, locating it near
23N/152E and moving slowly eastward. JTWC cashed in on the system at
0600 UTC on the 10th, locating the weak LLCC about 730 nm west-northwest
of Wake Island. Convection associated with the partially-exposed LLCC
was primarily located to the west of the center, and a 200-mb analysis
indicated moderate diffluence aloft and weak vertical shear. The
development potential was initially assessed as poor. Also at 0600
UTC, JMA upped the MSW (10-min avg) to 30 kts.
JTWC upgraded the potential for development to fair at 1700 UTC.
The LLCC was then located about 670 nm west-northwest of Wake Island,
moving northeastward at 11 kts. Deep convection was in a cycling
mode, and animated water vapor imagery, enhanced infrared and micro-
wave imagery indicated that the system was basically subtropical in
nature. Nonetheless, JTWC initiated warnings on Tropical Depression
17W at 1800 UTC, and at the same time JMA upgraded the depression to
Tropical Storm Malakas. Satellite CI estimates at the time ranged
from 25 to 35 kts. Malakas was located approximately 670 nm west-
northwest of Wake Island, moving northeastward at 11 kts.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Tropical Storm Malakas tracked rapidly northeastward along the
northern periphery of the subtropical ridge throughout its existence.
JTWC upgraded the system to tropical storm status at 0000 UTC on the
11th when it was located about 1300 nm west of Midway Island and moving
northeastward at 22 kts. JTWC never estimated the MSW any higher than
35 kts, although the remarks in the JTWC warnings noted that some CI
estimates were reaching 45 kts. At 11/1800 UTC water vapor imagery
indicated that Malakas was becoming extratropical. JTWC issued their
final warning on Tropical Storm Malakas at 0600 UTC on 12 August, placing
the center approximately 960 nm west-northwest of Midway Island. Current
intensity estimates ranged from 25 to 45 kts, but the system appeared
very ragged and was declared extratropical.
Both JMA's and NMCC's intensity estimates for Malakas were higher than
JTWC's. JMA maintained the MSW (10-min avg) at 40 kts for more than
48 hours with the peak intensity of 45 kts reached at 11/1800 UTC for
twelve hours. NMCC's peak estimated MSW (10-min avg) was 40 kts.
Whereas JTWC declared Malakas extratropical at 12/0600 UTC, JMA kept the
system alive as a tropical cyclone through 1200 UTC on 13 August as it
continued to move generally northeastward across the North Pacific. JMA
finally declared the system extratropical at 13/1800 UTC, placing the
weak 25-kt LOW approximately 575 nm north-northwest of Midway Island.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from this short-
lived marine cyclone.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
TYPHOON MEGI
(TC-18W / TY 0415 / LAWIN)
14 - 22 August
----------------------------------------------
Megi: contributed by South Korea, is the catfish--a large fish found
mainly in rivers, lakes, etc and which has long whiskers around
its mouth
A. Introduction
---------------
Typhoon Megi was the fourth of eight significant tropical cyclones to
form during August. After Megi formed in the Northwest Pacific, JTWC
issued warnings on tropical cyclones without a break through the rest of
the month. Megi formed well to the east of the Philippines, moved north-
westward through the Ryukyu island chain before recurving northeastward
towards South Korea and Japan. Despite peaking at only minimal typhoon
intensity, Megi had quite a significant impact on both these nations.
B. Storm Origins
----------------
At 2200 UTC on 11 August an area of convection persisted
approximately 260 nm west of Guam and was included in JTWC's STWO with
the development potential being assessed as poor. Animated enhanced
infrared satellite imagery indicated a possible LLCC in connection with
this convection. An upper-level analysis showed moderate diffluence
aloft and moderate wind shear over the area. The potential for develop-
ment remained poor through the 12th and much of the 13th. At 13/0600
UTC the system was relocated to a position approximately 65 nm south of
Guam, and then repositioned again at 13/2300 UTC to a point 60 nm to the
north-northwest of Guam. A recent QuikScat pass indicated that the LLCC
had consolidated significantly over the previous 12 hours with stronger
winds within the deep convection. On this basis, a TCFA was issued at
this time. The disturbance was upgraded to Tropical Depression 18W at
14/0000 UTC.
C. Synoptic History
-------------------
Tropical Depression 18W formed approximately 150 nm northwest of
Guam and initially tracked west-northwestward at 8 kts under the
influence of a mid-level steering ridge to its northeast. This heading
persisted through the 14th while the forward speed accelerated. There
was little change in intensity and deep convection had become less
organized by 14/1800 UTC. At this time animated enhanced infrared
satellite imagery suggested multiple LLCCs, meaning that the system
resembled a monsoon depression. The system appeared to have become a
little more consolidated by 15/0000 UTC, as depicted in satellite
imagery, but remained at depression status through the 15th.
At 0000 UTC on 16 August Tropical Depression 18W was centred 490 nm
south-southeast of Okinawa and continuing on its westward journey at a
slower pace of 7 kts. The storm still had not become any better
consolidated at this time. However, both JTWC and JMA upgraded the
system to a tropical storm and it was named Megi. From there, Megi
strengthened slowly, reaching 45 kts at 16/1800 UTC after turning
northwestward six hours earlier. This new heading was caused by Megi's
reaching the end of the subtropical ridge at the same time an upper-
level trough was moving eastward over eastern China.
Tropical Storm Megi was accelerating north-northwestward at 0000 UTC
on 17 August approximately 160 nm south of Okinawa. The upper-level
trough began to enhance Megi's outflow and the storm responded by
strengthening to 60 kts at 17/1800 UTC. Warnings issued by JTWC
indicated that Megi passed 75 nm west of Okinawa at 17/1200 UTC with the
island lying well within the radius of gale-force winds. Although the
system was upgraded to typhoon intensity at 18/0000 UTC (by both JTWC and
JMA) satellite images showed a distorted circulation as it became more
involved with the upper-level trough. At this time Megi had reached its
maximum intensity of 65 kts and this was to be maintained for the
following 24 hours. The typhoon completed recurvature at 18/1200 UTC
approximately 210 nm west-southwest of Sasebo, Japan.
At 0000 UTC on 19 August Megi was downgraded to tropical storm
status as it moved north-northeastward at a quickening pace
approximately 620 nm west-southwest of Misawa, Japan. Extratropical
transition was well underway as its circulation crossed the southern
part of the Korean peninsula, northern Kyushu and then entered the
Sea of Japan. From there Megi sped across northern Honshu before
completing extratropical transition off the east coast of Hokkaido.
Its rapid translational speed likely limited heavy rainfall to a degree
over South Korea and Japan but allowed little time for the storm to
significantly weaken. JTWC issued its final bulletin at 19/1200 UTC,
but JMA continued to follow the storm through their bulletins. In fact,
that agency retained typhoon intensity until 19/1800 UTC, at which time
Megi was demoted to severe tropical storm status. The last mention of
the system as a tropical cyclone was at 20/0600 UTC when it was located
southeast of Hokkaido and moving eastward at 33 kts. The resulting
extratropical storm continued moving rapidly eastward, reaching a point
near 42N/174E by 22/0600 UTC when it was last referenced in JMA's High
Seas Bulletins.
The lowest CP estimated by JMA was 970 mb. This coincided with that
agency's peak estimated intensity of 65-kts (10-min avg). During the
time that Lawin (Filipino name for the system) was within PAGASA's AOR,
the highest MSW estimated by that agency was 40 kts. The cyclone
remained a tropical storm during the period it was within PAGASA's
boundary lines, and thus was never upgraded to typhoon status. PAGASA
began issuing warnings at 15/0900 UTC and ended warning coverage at
17/0600 UTC after Lawin had exited their AOR. NMCC's peak 10-min avg
MSW for Megi was also 65 kts.
D. Meteorological Observations from Japan
-----------------------------------------
The data in this section, and in the two following, was compiled
and sent by Huang Chunliang. A special thanks to Chunliang for
sending the information.
NOTE: I have left all the wind observations in metres per second (mps).
To convert to knots, divide the mps value by 0.51444. For a quickly
obtained approximation, just double the mps value. An asterisk (*)
preceding an entry denotes a record-breaking value for the relevant
station.
{Part I}. Landfall
==================
According to the JMA warnings, Typhoon 0415 (MEGI) made landfall in
Tsugaru Peninsula, Aomori Prefecture, around 19/2100 UTC with a MSW of
30 m/s and a CP of 975 hPa.
{Part II}. Top-5 Storm Totals [16/1500-20/1500Z]
================================================
Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm)
------------------------------------------------------------
01 Ehime Tomisato 610
02 Kochi Hongawa 602
03 Miyazaki Mikado 487
04 Kochi Funato 445
05 Kochi Ikegawa 424
{Part III}. Top-5 Daily Rainfall Observations
=============================================
Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
01 Ehime Tomisato *398 [16/1500-17/1500Z]
02 Miyazaki Mikado 338 [16/1500-17/1500Z]
03 Kochi Ikegawa 297 [17/1500-18/1500Z]
04 Kochi Hongawa 289 [17/1500-18/1500Z]
05 Kochi Funato 273 [17/1500-18/1500Z]
{Part IV}. Top-5 Hourly Rainfall Observations
=============================================
Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
01 Miyazaki Mikado 123 [17/1210-17/1310Z]
02 Kanagawa Hakone 96 [17/0840-17/0940Z]
03 Hyogo Sumoto 82 [17/0810-17/0910Z]
04 Ehime Tomisato 70 [17/0610-17/0710Z]
05 Kochi Hongawa 64 [17/0540-18/0640Z]
{Part V}. Top-5 Peak Sustained Wind (10-min avg) Observations
=============================================================
Ranking Station Peak wind (mps/dir)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
01 Tobishima, Yamagata (JMA35002, Alt 58m) 34 /WSW [19/2000Z]
02 Erimomisaki, Hokkaido (JMA22391, Alt 63m) 28 /NE [20/0130Z]
03 Izuhara, Nagasaki (WMO47800, Alt 4m) *27.1/SSE [18/2050Z]
04 Nomozaki, Nagasaki (JMA84596, Alt 190m) 27 /SE [18/1600Z]
05 Ryotsu, Niigata (JMA54166, Alt 2m) *26 /SW [19/1740Z]
{Part VI}. Top-5 Peak Gust Observations
=======================================
Ranking Station Peak wind (mps/dir)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
01 Izuhara, Nagasaki (WMO47800, Alt 4m) *48.7/SSE [18/2036Z]
02 Fukue, Nagasaki (WMO47843, Alt 25m) 41.2/S [18/1723Z]
03 Akita, Akita (WMO47582, Alt 6m) 41.1/SW [19/1839Z]
04 Sakata, Yamagata (WMO47587, Alt 3m) 39.9/SSW [19/1853Z]
05 Hachinohe, Aomori (WMO47581, Alt 27m) 39.2/SW [20/0006Z]
{Part VII}. Top-5 SLP Observations
==================================
Ranking Station Min SLP (hPa)
---------------------------------------------------------------
01 Izuhara, Nagasaki (WMO47800) 974.1 [18/2112Z]
02 Fukaura, Aomori (WMOWMO47574) 978.7 [19/1939Z]
03 Kumejima, Okinawa (WMO47929) 980.7 [17/0937Z]
04 Aomori, Aomori (WMO47575) 981.3 [19/2104Z]
05 Hachinohe, Aomori (WMO47581) 982.5 [19/2328Z]
{Part VIII} References (Japanese versions only)
===============================================
http://www.data.kishou.go.jp
http://www.osaka-jma.go.jp
E. Meteorological Observations from Coastal Zhejiang, China
-----------------------------------------------------------
1. Significant gust observations from the western periphery of Typhoon
Megi [Aug 17-18, locally]
======================================================================
Shulang Lake----30.6 m/s
Langgang----27.7 m/s
Haijiao----27.3 m/s
Dongtou----26.8 m/s
2. Significant rainfall observations from the western periphery of
Typhoon Megi [18/0000-19/0000Z]
==================================================================
Dongtou----86.4 mm
Yuhuan----62.9 mm
Jinhua----59.2 mm
F. Rainfall Observations from the Republic of Korea
---------------------------------------------------
17/1200-18/1200Z (Only amounts >= 100 mm listed)
================================================
WANDO (34.40N 126.70E 35m) 332.5 mm
GWANGJU (35.17N 126.90E 74m) 305.5 mm
ANDONG (36.57N 128.72E 141m) 210.0 mm
JINDO RADAR (34.47N 126.32E 477m) 191.5 mm
MOKPO (34.82N 126.38E 39m) 177.0 mm
JEONJU (35.82N 127.15E 55m) 171.5 mm
JEJU (33.52N 126.53E 23m) 139.5 mm
JEJU UPPER/RADAR (33.28N 126.17E 73m) 139.0 mm
SANGJU (36.40N 128.15E 100m) 116.0 mm
CHUPUNGNYEONG (36.22N 128.00E 245m) 114.0 mm
18/0000-19/0000Z (Only amounts >= 100 mm listed)
================================================
GWANGJU (35.17N 126.90E 74m) 319.5 mm
WANDO (34.40N 126.70E 35m) 254.5 mm
ANDONG (36.57N 128.72E 141m) 237.0 mm
DAEGWALLYEONG (37.68N 128.77E 844m) 220.5 mm
JINDO RADAR (34.47N 126.32E 477m) 214.0 mm
SOKCHO (38.25N 128.57E 19m) 199.0 mm
GANGNEUNG (37.75N 128.90E 26m) 197.5 mm
MOKPO (34.82N 126.38E 39m) 195.5 mm
DONGHAE RADAR (37.50N 129.13E 37m) 187.5 mm
ULJIN (36.98N 129.42E 51m) 183.5 mm
DAEGU (35.88N 128.62E 59m) 179.5 mm
JEONJU (35.82N 127.15E 55m) 176.5 mm
POHANG (36.03N 129.38E 4m) 167.5 mm
SANGJU (36.40N 128.15E 100m) 154.0 mm
CHUPUNGNYEONG (36.22N 128.00E 245m) 144.0 mm
YEONGWOL (37.18N 128.47E 237m) 113.5 mm
DAEJEON (36.37N 127.37E 72m) 104.5 mm
18/1200-19/1200Z (Only amounts >= 100 mm listed)
================================================
DAEGWALLYEONG (37.68N 128.77E 844m) 219.0 mm
DONGHAE RADAR (37.50N 129.13E 37m) 217.5 mm
GANGNEUNG (37.75N 128.90E 26m) 209.5 mm
SOKCHO (38.25N 128.57E 19m) 169.0 mm
ULJIN (36.98N 129.42E 51m) 165.0 mm
POHANG (36.03N 129.38E 4m) 143.5 mm
DAEGU (35.88N 128.62E 59m) 108.0 mm
G. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
News sources indicated that five people were reported dead or missing
after Typhoon Megi lashed South Korea with heavy rains and strong winds.
The number left homeless by the storm rose to more than 2400. Dozens of
domestic flights were cancelled. Typhoon Megi left at least ten dead in
Japan, where the previous month's floods had already caused 15 deaths.
Most of the casualties were due to floods and landslides while two
persons were lost at sea. Also, a man was killed after being struck by
wind-borne advertising boarding. Shikoku and the nearby Tsushima Islands
were particularly hard hit--205 mm of rain had fallen on some areas of
Shikoku by 0000 GMT 20 August. Megi's landfall on northern Japan
resulted in large blackouts as electricity to 130,000 homes was cut.
Some 700 people were evacuated from their homes due to the heavy rains
and 24 airline flights were cancelled. A group of around 165 primary
school students stranded by a landslide in western Japan were success-
fully rescued by helicopter.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle with significant contributions by
Huang Chunliang)
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for August: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for August: 1 tropical depression
Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for August
---------------------------------------------------
The 2004-2005 Southern Hemisphere season got off to an early start
with the formation of a tropical depression (designated as Tropical
Depression 01) by Meteo France La Reunion. This system formed just
west of 90E and subsequently moved southeastward into Perth's AOR where
it became Tropical Cyclone Phoebe on 2 September (TC-01S per JTWC).
Since Phoebe became a named cyclone in September, it will be covered
in next month's summary.
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E
Activity for August: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E
Activity for August: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for August: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
to send them a copy.
*************************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
these via e-mail, please send me a message.)
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
Chris Landsea):
<http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
<http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
<http://mpittweather.com>
<ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
<http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical
Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2003 (2002-2003 season for the Southern
Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also.
The URL is: <http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 2003 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2003 Atlantic
and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.
The URL is: <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.
PREPARED BY
Gary Padgett
E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com
Phone: 334-222-5327
Kevin Boyle (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
China Sea)
E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com
John Wallace (Assistance with Eastern North Pacific)
E-mail: dosidicus@aol.com
Huang Chunliang (Assistance with Western Northwest Pacific, South
China Sea)
E-mail: huangchunliang@hotmail.com
Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
E-mail: saclarke@iprimus.com.au
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
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