MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
AUGUST, 2004
Fourth Installment
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
NOTE: Due to the incredibly high level of tropical cyclone activity
across the Northern Hemisphere during the month of August, I have
decided to disseminate the August summary in four installments in order
to expedite the storm reports and to present them in smaller, more
digestible portions. The installments will be as follows (dates refer
to storms which formed during the indicated time frame):
Part One: August 1 - 9 (Sent 7 October)
Part Two: August 10 - 16 (Sent 19 October)
Part Three: August 17 - 23, plus Monthly Feature (Sent 9 November)
Part Four: August 24 - 31 (Sent 30 November)
*************************************************************************
SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers
will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
I wanted to include them. After a couple of months, I will move this
note to the ending section of the summary.
(1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
---------------------------------------
Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
retrieved from the following FTP site:
<ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>
Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
messages may be found at the following URL:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>
Links are also included to websites with further information about the
U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
craft Operations Center.
(2) Archived Advisories
-----------------------
All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an
example), the archived products can be found at:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>
Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
the following URL:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>
I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.
(3) Satellite Imagery
---------------------
Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The
links are:
<http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
<http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is
located in the lower left portion of the screen.
I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.
*************************************************************************
AUGUST HIGHLIGHTS
--> Destructive hurricane strikes southwestern Florida communities
--> Large severe hurricane strikes Bahamas and southeastern Florida
--> China struck by two typhoons--one very deadly
--> Two intense typhoons pass through Marianas en route to Japan
--> Typhoon grazes southeastern South Korea
*************************************************************************
***** Feature of the Month for August *****
NOTE!!! The Feature of the Month for August was included in the
third installment of the August summary.
*************************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for August: 4 tropical storms
1 hurricane
3 intense hurricanes
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some
additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a
1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.
An interesting article discussing the atmospheric circulation
patterns which led to the incredibly active and destructive Atlantic
hurricane season, as well as information on the effects of individual
cyclones, can be found on CSU's atmospheric sciences website at the
following URL:
<http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2004/oct2004/>
Atlantic Tropical Activity for August
-------------------------------------
Following a stormless June and July, tropical cyclone activity
exploded in August to produce the most active month of August on record.
The average statistics for August (based on 1950-2003) are: 2.7 NS,
1.5 H, and 0.6 IH with an NTC of 24%. During August, 2004, a record
eight tropical storms developed with four reaching hurricane intensity.
Three of the hurricanes became intense hurricanes (Category 3 or higher
on the Saffir/Simpson scale), and the NTC for August was a staggering
84%. And all of the cyclones except Hurricane Danielle had an impact on
land. Hurricane Alex passed a scant 10 miles off Cape Hatteras while
a Category 2 hurricane, and later reached Category 3 status north of the
38th parallel while moving northeastward over the warm Gulf Stream waters
south of the Canadian Maritimes. Tropical Storm Bonnie formed in the
Gulf of Mexico and made landfall near St. Marks, FL, while Hurricane
Charley was gathering steam in the Caribbean. Charley struck western
Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, weakened slightly after crossing the
island, then rapidly intensified into a strong Category 4 hurricane
before making landfall near Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte, FL. The
storm crossed the Peninsula, maintaining hurricane intensity, and
exited near Jacksonville. Charley continued north-northeastward and
made a second U. S. landfall in South Carolina.
Hurricane Danielle formed in mid-month near the Cape Verdes but moved
northward over the eastern Atlantic, becoming an impressive Category 2
hurricane. Tropical Storm Earl formed at the same time as Danielle and
moved through the southern Windwards as a tropical storm, but lost its
circulation and was downgraded to a tropical wave in the southeastern
Caribbean. Earl's remnants continued westward, reaching the Eastern
Pacific several days later and ultimately redeveloping into Hurricane
Frank. Tropical Storms Gaston and Hermine were twins forming late in
the month along an old frontal boundary stretching eastward into the
Atlantic from the southeastern U. S. coast. Gaston formed near the
coast and struck South Carolina as a strong tropical storm near hurri-
cane intensity. Hermine formed from another LOW along the same frontal
trough west of Bermuda and moved northward, eventually reaching south-
eastern Massachusetts as a weak tropical storm.
Mighty Hurricane Frances formed on 25 August about midway between the
Lesser Antilles and Africa. Frances moved relentlessly on a west-
northwesterly track which carried it north of the Leeward Islands and
Puerto Rico as it became a large, severe Category 4 hurricane. Frances
slashed its way through the Bahamas, gradually weakening to Category 2
levels during the process. The storm made landfall in southeastern
Florida as a very large, slow-moving Category 2 hurricane--not "major"
by Saffir/Simpson standards, but still causing major damage as it crossed
the Peninsula. Frances emerged into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and
made a final landfall as a tropical storm near St. Marks, FL.
A strong tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa very late
in August and passed through the Cape Verde Islands on the 31st. The
system was quite well-organized at one point, and SAB assigned a Dvorak
classification of T2.5/2.5 at 31/1800 UTC. However, the convection
quickly began to diminish and the system was not classified as a
tropical depression at the time. The weak LOW persisted, however, and
over a week later, on 9 September, was briefly upgraded to tropical
depression status. (This system will be mentioned in the September
summary.)
Reports on all the August tropical storms and hurricanes will be
issued according to the schedule below. A special thanks to Kevin
Boyle for writing some of the Atlantic cyclone reports.
Part 1 - Alex, Bonnie
Part 2 - Charley, Danielle, Earl
Part 3 - none
Part 4 - Frances, Gaston, Hermine
NOTE: The official TPC/NHC storm reports for Hurricane Gaston and
Tropical Storm Hermine, as well as some earlier and later tropical
cyclones, are now available online at the following link:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004atlan.shtml>
HURRICANE FRANCES
(TC-06)
25 August - 10 September
--------------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
A vigorous tropical wave moved off the African coast early on the
21st of August. Conditions downstream were considered favorable for
tropical cyclone development, but the wave initially showed no signs
of cyclogenesis. By the next afternoon the wave was passing south of
the Cape Verde Islands and convection had become slightly better
organized. The wave continued marching westward on the 23rd with little
change, but by early morning of 24 August was again exhibiting increased
convective organization. The disturbance was then located approximately
500 nm west-southwest of the Cape Verdes, moving westward at 13 kts.
The convective appearance continued to improve into the evening hours,
and at 0300 UTC on 25 August the first advisory on Tropical Depression 06
was issued by TPC/NHC.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
The initial advisory placed the center of TD-06 about 750 nm west-
southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, moving west-northwestward at 15 kts.
The MSW was estimated at 25 kts and the system was forecast to reach
tropical storm intensity within 12 hours. During the morning of the 25th
convection associated with the depression looked somewhat ragged, but
during the afternoon the system showed renewed organization with a small
CDO and a convective band wrapped around the western semicircle. Since
satellite intensity estimates were 35 kts from TAFB and SAB, TD-06 was
upgraded to Tropical Storm Frances at 25/2100 UTC. The new tropical
storm was located about 1250 nm east of the Lesser Antilles and moving
westward at 17 kts. During the early morning hours of 26 August Frances'
cloud pattern improved significantly. Winds were upped to 50 kts in the
26/0900 UTC advisory, and there were some indications that a banding-type
eye was trying to form. The intensification trend continued and at 2100
UTC Frances was upgraded to hurricane status with 70-kt winds. Upper-
level outflow was good to excellent in all quadrants.
Hurricane Frances continued to steadily strengthen on the 27th, and
at 2100 UTC the MSW was upped to 100 kts, thereby making Frances the
third intense hurricane (Category 3+ on the Saffir/Simpson Scale) of the
season. The hurricane was then centered about 700 nm east of the Lee-
ward Islands. Up to this point Frances had been moving on a west-
northwesterly track, being guided by a strong subtropical ridge to the
north. For a couple of days a weakening of the ridge due to a higher-
latitude shortwave trough had been forecast, and this verified very
well. On 27 August Hurricane Frances began a northwestward jog in
response to the temporary weakening of the ridge. And, just as had
earlier been forecast, in a couple of days the cyclone returned to a
west-northwestward heading as the trough lifted out and the ridge
strengthened over the western Atlantic. The intensity remained more
or less constant late on the 27th and early on the 28th due to the first
of several eyewall replacement cycles. After completing this cycle,
Frances' intensity began to climb again, reaching an initial peak of
115 kts at 28/2100 UTC, based on an analysis of satellite intensity
estimates, both manual and objective. Frances was located about 600 nm
east of the northern Leeward Islands as it became the season's second
Category 4 hurricane.
As forecast, the subtropical ridge began to build and expand north of
the hurricane. Consequently, on the 29th Frances began to move back to
a heading of just slightly north of due west. The first U. S. Air Force
Reserves reconnaissance aircraft reached Frances during the afternoon
of 29 August. A minimum pressure of 949 mb was measured, and the peak
FLW found was 112 kts. Since the plane had not sampled the entire
circulation by the 2100 UTC advisory time, the MSW was left at 115 kts,
but this was reduced to 110 kts at 30/0300 UTC. The pressure was up to
954 mb at 2300 UTC and the highest 700-mb FLW reported was 118 kts at a
position about 9 nm northwest of the center. At 0900 UTC the MSW was
reduced further to 105 kts. The most recent peak FLW found by an
aircraft was only 99 kts, but the cyclone appeared much better organized
and satellite intensity estimates were ranging from 102 to 115 kts.
Frances was located at 30/0900 UTC about 335 nm east of the northern
Leeward Islands, moving west at around 8 kts.
Frances' intensity began to edge upward again on 31 August as the
pressure began to fall once more. The MSW was upped to 110 kts at
31/0000 UTC and to 115 kts at 1200 UTC. The hurricane had completed
an eyewall replacement cycle early in the morning, and the 1200 UTC
reconnaissance mission reported a peak FLW of 138 kts at 700 mb and an
extrapolated CP of 944 mb. Six hours later the MSW was nudged up again
to 120 kts. A reconnaissance plane had found winds to 144 kts at
700 mb with an extrapolated CP of 938 mb. Also, the Stepped Frequency
Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) on the NOAA P-3 plane measured surface winds
of 118 kts, and T-numbers had reached 6.5 from the satellite agencies.
Thus, Frances was a solid Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson
Scale located about 125 nm north of San Juan, Puerto Rico, moving west
at 15 kts. Hurricane force winds extended outward 60 nm from the center
in the northwest quadrant and from 35 to 50 nm in the other quadrants
while gales covered a zone almost 300 nm in diameter.
Large, severe Hurricane Frances maintained its intensity through the
first day of September. The lowest CP in the storm's history--935 mb--
was measured during the wee hours by a reconnaissance aircraft. The
storm was getting set to go through another eyewall replacement cycle.
A reconnaissance crew very early on the 1st reported finding three
concentric wind maxima, and the reconnaissance fix at 01/1719 UTC
reported a double eyewall. The discussion bulletin at 01/2100 UTC noted
that data from the SFMR on the NOAA P-3 plane were used to decrease the
wind radii estimates in the northwestern quadrant. As a result of this,
it was decided to delay the issuance of a hurricane watch for the Florida
East Coast. Very early on 2 September a dropsonde in the northeastern
eyewall reported surface winds near 125 kts. This, along with CI esti-
mates of 127 kts from all three satellite agencies, was the basis for
raising Frances' MSW to the peak value of 125 kts at 02/0900 UTC. The
attendant CP was measured at 936 mb. The storm's center had passed only
25 nm north of Grand Turk Island around 2100 UTC on 1 September, and at
0900 UTC on the 2nd was centered a like distance north of Mayaguana
Island in the Bahamas. This position is also 450 nm east-southeast of
Palm Beach, Florida.
At 1500 UTC on 2 September hurricane warnings were ordered up from
Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee.
Hurricane Frances was located very near San Salvador Island in the
Bahamas around 1800 UTC, still at its peak intensity of 125 kts. A
sustained wind of 99 kts was reported from the island. By 2100 UTC data
from a reconnaissance plane indicated that Frances' CP had risen to
948 mb, so the wind was adjusted downward slightly to 120 kts. It was
initially thought that this might represent a minor fluctuation in
intensity, but Frances continued to slowly weaken as it progressed west-
northwestward through the Bahamas. The MSW was lowered to 110 kts in
the 09/0300 UTC advisory, placing Frances back at Category 3 status.
At 0600 UTC the hurricane was centered near the northern end of Cat
Island, moving slowly west-northwestward at 8 kts. The MSW at this
time was again decreased slightly to 105 kts. Six hours later Frances
was located over Eleuthera Island or about 225 nm east-southeast of the
southeastern coast of Florida. Frances was continuing to slowly weaken.
While cold convective tops were still being generated over the center,
Hurricane Hunter and Bahamian radar data showed that they were coming
from eyewall fragments in the northeastern quadrant. At 0900 UTC the
CP had risen to 954 mb and the peak FLW was 98 kts. Reconnaissance
data during the later morning indicated that the inner core of Frances
had deteriorated since the previous day, likely due to some upper-level
southwesterly shear between 300-250 mb which was undercutting the
impressive outflow layer.
Shortly before 03/1500 UTC, Little Harbor in the Abacos group reported
a wind gust of 100 kts. At 1800 UTC Frances was centered very near the
southern tip of Great Abaco Island. Winds were down to 100 kts and the
CP at 961 mb as the large hurricane continued to slowly weaken. The
MSW was decreased to 90 kts in the 04/0000 UTC intermediate advisory.
This downgrade to Category 2 status was based upon data from a variety
of sources: radar, satellite, reconnaissance data, and surface reports.
As the day progressed the inner core convection became a little more
symmetric and reconnaissance observations indicated that an eyewall might
be reforming, but Frances was to remain at 90 kts until its landfall on
the Florida coast. At 1200 UTC the hurricane was centered very near
Freeport on Grand Bahama Island. Settlement Point was reporting
sustained winds to hurricane force at that hour with gusts to 70 kts.
The SLP was 974.5 mb and falling rapidly. Strong winds continued to
buffet the island for much of the day as Frances remained stalled. By
1500 UTC WSR-88D radar showed that Frances had developed a large eye
about 70 nm in diameter. During the evening hours of 4 September the
large hurricane began once more to drift west-northwestward toward the
southeastern coast of Florida. The center was located at that hour
approximately 45 nm east-northeast of Palm Beach with strong winds
already affecting the coastline.
The center of Hurricane Frances' large eye reached the coast around
0500 UTC on Sunday, 5 September, near Sewall's Point, Florida. This
location is also in the vicinity of Stuart, Jensen Beach and Port
Salerno. The landfall intensity was 90 kts with the CP near 960 mb.
Hurricane force winds extended outward from the center 75 nm in the
northern semicircle and about 60 nm to the south. Once inland Frances
continued to move west-northwestward across the central Florida Peninsula
while slowly weakening. At 05/1500 UTC Frances' center was located by
radar approximately 130 km east-southeast of Tampa; however, due to the
large size of the circulation, Grand Bahama Island was still reporting
sustained winds of tropical storm force while winds of 40-45 kts in
feeder bands were being reported from the Keys. At 2100 UTC Frances
was downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm, even though the CP was quite
low at 975 mb. As the large storm continued to weaken over central
Florida, it maintained well-organized convective banding and tropical
storm-force winds over a large area. The St. Augustine C-MAN reported
a sustained 56-kt wind observation at 05/2200 UTC, and around the same
time Tampa reported a MSLP of 977.7 mb.
By 0300 UTC on 6 September the center of Tropical Storm Frances was
moving out over the warm waters of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico just
northwest of Tampa with the MSW estimated at 55 kts. The NHC discussion
bulletin at 0900 UTC noted that thunderstorm activity had steadily
increased near the center over the past few hours, and Doppler radar data
from Tampa and Tallahassee, as well as observations from a reconnaissance
mission, indicated that a ragged eye was trying to form. The forecast
for that hour indicated the possibility that Frances might regain
hurricane intensity before making landfall in the eastern Florida
Panhandle. That forecast, however, failed to materialize. The MSW
remained at 55 kts until Frances made landfall near St. Marks, Florida,
around 1800 UTC on the 6th (Labor Day). The final TPC/NHC advisory on
Frances, issued at 07/0300 UTC, downgraded the system to tropical depres-
sion status with the center located about 50 km southwest of Albany,
Georgia. The depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 kts
and was expected to make a northward turn during the next 24 hours.
With Frances' winds winding down, the primary concern turned to inland
flooding from the expected heavy rainfall. As has been the procedure for
the past several years, warning responsibility for the remnants of
Frances was handed over to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
(HPC) in Maryland. Tropical Depression Frances continued northwestward
through southwestern Georgia into extreme eastern Alabama before
recurving to a general northeastward heading. At 0300 UTC on 8 September
the depression was located about 55 km northeast of Atlanta, Georgia.
The system continued northward to northeastward, passing through extreme
western North Carolina, the northeastern tip of Tennessee, extreme
western Virginia and into West Virginia. At 09/0300 UTC the remnant LOW
was located over West Virginia about 280 km west of Washington, D. C.,
and had accelerated some to 17 kts. The heading subsequently became
more northeasterly and 24 hours later, when HPC issued their final
advisory, the LOW had crossed western Pennsylvania and New York and had
moved into Canada, being located about 40 km south-southwest of Quebec
City. Frances' remnant LOW was then moving northeastward at 21 kts.
The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) issued a couple of gale warnings on
the LOW, even though the center was inland, as it moved into northern
Maine. The final definite mention of the system was at 10/1200 UTC.
Frances' remnant was the southwesternmost center of a complex LOW with
the main center near 48N/65W, moving to the east-northeast at 40 kts.
The post-Frances center was moving in the same direction at 30 kts.
C. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
Many locations reported gusts well above hurricane intensity, and
several reported sustained winds at or higher than hurricane force.
The highest sustained wind/gust combination I could locate was at
Ft. Pierce, which reported a 1-min avg wind of 70 kts with a peak gust
of 94 kts around 0400 UTC on 5 September. Port Mayaca Lock in Martin
County reported a peak sustained wind of 74 kts at 05/0500 UTC. There
was a report from the public of a gust to 92 kts at 05/1145 UTC from
a location in Martin County (27.12N/80.26W)--the anemometer height was
8.5 meters. Port Orange reported a 3-day rainfall total of 383 mm,
while Deland Coop. in Volusia County reported a storm total of 286 mm.
The Corp of Engineers reported a storm surge value at the St. Lucie
Lock of 1.8 meters. Other surge estimates ranged from 1.8 meters
at Cocoa Beach to 2.4 meters at Vero Beach.
Many, many more observations can be found in the storm report
compiled by the Melbourne NWS office. The link is:
<http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/frances/products/PSH.txt>
As of this writing, the official TPC/NHC storm report on Hurricane
Frances is not yet available online, but it is highly likely that it
will be within the next few weeks. The report will contain additional
observations, and interested persons should periodically check the
following link:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004atlan.shtml>
Hurricane Frances produced heavy rainfalls from Florida to Canada.
A significant area in central Florida plus western North Carolina
recorded storm totals exceeding 15 inches (380 mm), while portions of
Virginia and eastern Georgia measured totals exceeding 10 inches
(255 mm). A small zone in southeastern New York experienced a storm
total in excess of 7 inches (178 mm). The following link contains a map
depicting storm total rainfall associated with Frances over the eastern
U. S.:
<http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/frances2004rain.gif>
Following are a few selected storm totals gleaned from the HPC
advisories on Frances. These represent periods of various length ranging
usually from 30 to 42 hours.
Linville Falls, North Carolina 459 mm
Edgemont, North Carolina 422 mm
Lake Toxaway, North Carolina 367 mm
West Point, Ohio 338 mm
Tallulah Falls, Georgia 255 mm
Walhalla, South Carolina 253 mm
Lake City, Florida 236 mm
Ellamoore, West Virginia 229 mm
Nicholls Knobb, Virginia 209 mm
Busted Rock, Virginia 187 mm
White Plains, New York 163 mm
Hartwell Dam, Georgia 157 mm
Altoona, Pennsylvania 148 mm
Middlesboro, Kentucky 129 mm
Newfound Gap, Tennessee 103 mm
Amounts exceeding 50 mm were reported from many stations across New
England. More rainfall information can be found in the HPC advisories,
which are archived at the following link:
<http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical2004/2004storms.shtml>
Frances brought significant rainfall to parts of Canada also. Heavy
rains were recorded just north of eastern Lake Erie and over south-
eastern Ontario. A few spots measured new record 24-hr totals:
Cobourg 82.2 mm
Kingston 137.0 mm
Ottawa (Airport) 123.0 mm
Trenton 111.8 mm
Frances' remnants brought heavy rain also to the Maritime Provinces.
Charlo, New Brunswick, recorded 98.3 mm in association with the storm,
and Miscou Island and Miramichi, New Brunswick, each received over
50 mm. In Newfoundland, Deer Lake and Stephenville each set a new record
for the date (10 September) with 71.9 mm and 65.2 mm, respectively.
Twillingate measured 62.3 mm, while Badger and Corner Brook each recorded
over 50 mm. (A special thanks to Chris Fogarty for the Canadian data.)
D. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
Frances was not nearly as intense as the devastating Charley, but
was much larger. Charley's swath of hurricane-force winds was only
40 nm, whereas sustained hurricane winds in Frances stretched over
a diameter of 135 nm. In areas where there are many trees in very
close proximity to houses, sustained winds of storm force (>48 kts)
with accompanying gusts to hurricane force can cause an amazing amount
of destruction by trees being blown onto houses and cars. The
diameter of storm-force winds in association with Hurricane Charley
was about 90 nm, whereas in Frances winds 50 kts or higher covered a
zone 220 nm across. Hence, Hurricane Frances did not produce the
extreme structural damage caused by Charley over a small area, but did
produce significant damage over a considerable portion of the entire
Florida Peninsula.
Beach erosion was moderate to severe from Cocoa Beach to Vero Beach
with roads and boardwalks experiencing significant damage. Street
flooding was a problem in many cities, and a few tornadoes touched down,
causing minor damage. St. Lucie County was one of the hardest hit
counties with initial reports indicating damage of $2.5 billion to
public and private facilities. The Ft. Pierce Municipal Marina was
destroyed as were most of the hangars at Ft. Pierce Airport. Thousands
of residences experiences roof and tree damage, and many thousands of
mobile homes were damaged or destroyed.
Hurricane Frances caused more damage to the Kennedy Space Center at
Cape Canaveral than any storm in history, according to a Fox News story.
The storm blew an estimated 1000 exterior panels from a giant building
where spaceships are assembled, creating about 40,000 square feet of
"open window" on two sides of the building. Sustained winds reached
60 kts at the facility with gusts to 82 kts. The shuttle hangars and
spaceships were not damaged, but part of the roof came off the building
where the shuttles' thermal tiles are made, resulting in a potential
blow to NASA's return-to-flight effort.
The storm summary on Frances in the latest release by Dr. Bill Gray
and associates at Colorado State University indicates that insured losses
from Frances are estimated at around $4 billion, which would suggest
a total damage figure for the storm of around $8 billion. The hurricane
has also been blamed for 24 deaths. All of the CSU forecast releases
may be found at the following URL:
<http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/index.html>
The post-storm report prepared by the Melbourne NWS office, referenced
in the above section, also contains further details regarding storm
damage in the counties within its area of jurisdiction. Also, the
official TPC/NHC report, when it becomes available, should be consulted
as the best available source of damage figures relating to Hurricane
Frances.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
HURRICANE GASTON
(TC-07)
27 August - 2 September
-------------------------------------------
Editor's Note: The report below, authored by Kevin Boyle, was written
before the post-analysis upgrade of Tropical Storm Gaston to hurricane
status. However, it does point out the definite possibility of such
happening.
A. Storm Origins
----------------
At 1818 UTC 27 August NHC issued a Special Tropical Disturbance
Statement on a LOW centred about 120 nm southeast of Charleston,
South Carolina. This feature had formed from the remnants of an old
frontal system which extended from the United States East Coast and
out into the Atlantic. This front also instigated the development of
Tropical Storm Hermine on 29 August. The disturbance that became
Gaston was first mentioned in NHC's Tropical Weather Outlooks on 26
August, but it wasn't until the next day that significant development
began. The system then proceeded to organize quite quickly, resulting
in the Special Bulletin at 27/1818 UTC. This statement announced that
advisories would be started at 2100 UTC and a tropical storm watch
would be put into place for portions of the Georgia and South Carolina
coasts.
At the time of the first warning, Tropical Depression Seven was
still loitering nearly 130 nm southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.
Steering currents controlling the system were very weak and continued
to be so during the 28th. However, a ridge developing to the north and
east began to nudge the tropical cyclone westwards during the course of
the day. In the days ahead, this heading was predicted to turn
northwards as the ridge was weakened by a shortwave trough. Tropical
Depression Seven continued to quickly wind up and tropical storm
intensity was soon reached at 1500 UTC 28 August. Visible satellite
imagery showed a curved convective band wrapping halfway around
the centre at this time. The watch issued for South Carolina was
changed to a warning in response to the upgrade.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was sent to investigate
the tropical cyclone and discovered that Gaston was a stronger storm
than previously thought. The plane found 59-kt 450-m flight-level
winds to the north of the centre and a CP of 996 mb. The MSW was
raised to 45 kts at 28/2100 UTC on the basis of these measurements. In
the event Gaston strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane before
landfall, which seemed likely, a hurricane watch was issued for the
South Carolina coast, and this was then raised to a warning at 28/2345
UTC. Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Tropical Storm Gaston
at 29/0300 UTC found 60-kt flight-level winds to the southwest of the
centre, a CP of 994 mb, and reported winds of 35-kts extending about
50 nm or less in all quadrants. In addition, the plane reported a 35-nm
diameter eye with a partial eyewall, and this observation was backed up
by radar from both Charleston and Wilmington which showed that the
eye was open to the south. At 29/1000 UTC Gaston was edging closer to
land and was about 35 nm east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina,
at this time. Its associated MSW had risen to 60 kts and it seemed only
a matter of time before Gaston would attain hurricane intensity. The
storm had made its predicted turn towards the north in response to an
advancing shortwave trough embedded in the westerlies.
Gaston made landfall just west of McClellanville, South Carolina,
around 29/1400 UTC. WSR-88D velocity data indicated that the storm
came ashore at just below hurricane strength. There is every possibility
that Gaston did move onshore as a minimal hurricane and a post-
analysis of the system may upgrade it to a Category One hurricane
later. Tracking northwards, Gaston weakened to a 35-kt tropical storm
at 29/2100 UTC, and after downgrading it to a tropical depression at
30/0300 UTC, NHC stopped issuing advisories at this point and passed
warning responsibility to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.
Initially, the remnants of Gaston were forecast to absorb Tropical
Storm Hermine, but this scenario never materialized. Instead, Hermine
sped northward toward New England, leaving behind the slower moving
Gaston.
By 30/0300 UTC Tropical Depression Gaston had reached the South
Carolina/North Carolina border. Turning northeastwards, Gaston
moved back over water and was located east of the Delmarva Peninsula
and southeast of the Chesapeake Bay at 0300 UTC 31 August. At this
time NHC re-assumed warning responsibility and upgraded Gaston
back to tropical storm status based on observations of 43 kts (10-min
avg) from the Chesapeake Light C-man Station (with gusts of 49 kts) and
also a ship report of 36-kt sustained winds at 31/0000 UTC about 35 nm
southeast of the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. These wind reports
were from the south and southeastern parts of the circulation with no
tropical storm-force winds being recorded over land.
Accelerating northeastwards, satellite imagery showed limited deep
convection in association with Gaston, and there appeared to be a
frontal-like band developing to the southeast of the centre. The MSW
had remained at 35 kts and overall, Tropical Storm Gaston was becoming
less tropical as it began to interact with a frontal zone. However,
the storm maintained enough deep convection around its centre to be
classified as a tropical cyclone. Despite Gaston's passage over 16 Deg C
SSTs, the tropical cyclone appeared to be holding its own for awhile,
and satellite intensity estimates at 01/0300 UTC had even risen slightly,
although buoy reports near the centre indicated that the MSW might
have fallen. However Gaston was kept at tropical storm intensity as a
compromise between CI estimates and surface observations.
By dawn satellite imagery indicated that Gaston had become mostly
extratropical, and a jet stream was creating a sharp boundary to the
north of the cloud shield. NHC upped the MSW to 45 kts on their final
advisory at 01/0900 UTC to comply with satellite estimates and a 45-kt
wind speed measurement from Buoy WRYG. The extratropical system then
sped east-northeastwards at around 30 kts out into the Atlantic and
passed just southeast of Newfoundland on the 2nd of September. Bracknell
weather charts indicate that Gaston's remnant LOW (995 mb) continued
northeast across the north Atlantic on the 3rd of September, losing its
identity northwest of the British Isles the next day.
C. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
Tropical Storm Gaston produced some impressive rainfall totals in
North and South Carolina. The following were obtained from the HPC
storm summaries. In South Carolina, Kingstree had a 24-hour total of
250 mm, while Turbeville reported 178 mm in 24-hours, both ending at
0000 UTC 30 August. Other 24-hour totals above 100 mm were
Manning (140 mm) and Charleston (103 mm) during the period 0000
UTC 29 August-0000 UTC 30 August. Darlington measured a 30-hour
total of 133 mm ending at 0600 UTC 30 August. The only other rainfall
amount exceeding 100 mm was from Florence, which recorded 119 mm
in the 30 hours ending at 0600 UTC 30 August.
In North Carolina, Lauringburg-Maxton Airport received 125 mm in
the 30 hours ending 0600 UTC 30 August while Lumberton recorded 80 mm
during the same period. Camp Mackall measured a storm total of 142 mm
and Pope AFB reported a storm total of 86 mm.
D. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
News sources indicate that Gaston unleashed torrential rains across
North and South Carolina. Also, central parts of Virginia received a
foot or more of rainfall which led to serious flooding. Five people were
confirmed dead in Richmond, Virginia, as a result of Gaston and
damages there were estimated at $20 million. The overall death toll is
believed to be nine.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE
(TC-08)
27 - 31 August
--------------------------------------
At 2100 UTC on 29 August satellite images indicated that an area of
low pressure located roughly 280 nm southeast of Cape Hatteras, North
Carolina, had developed sufficiently to be classified as a tropical
storm. Advisories were initiated on Tropical Storm Hermine at this
time and the initial MSW was set at 35 kts. Hermine developed from a
disturbance embedded in the same frontal zone that had spawned its twin,
Tropical Storm Gaston. At the time of its inception, the centre of
Hermine's circulation was located to the north of the associated deep
convection due to the effects of some vertical shear. However, some
additional strengthening was expected. Basically, Hermine was being
controlled by the same HIGH that had gradually pushed Tropical Storm
Gaston into South Carolina, and the system was forecast to follow suit
except that the forecast track kept the storm away from the U.S. East
Coast. Therefore, no watches or warnings were deemed necessary.
Another reason for this decision was that Hermine was forecast initially
to be swallowed up by the larger extratropical circulation of Gaston.
The MSW of Hermine was nudged up a little to 40 kts at 0300 UTC on
30 August, but the LLCC was still exposed to the north of the deep
convection. The tropical cyclone had turned towards the north-
northwest at this time, and six hours later, it began to race northwards
at 16 kts. Based on satellite intensity estimates, the intensity was
upped to 45 kts and was kept at this intensity through 30/1500 UTC based
on a 30/0947 UTC QuikScat pass which showed 45 to 50-kt winds southeast
of the LLCC. Because Hermine didn't appear to be weakening in satellite
images, precautionary tropical storm warnings were issued at 30/1700 UTC
for southeastern Massachusetts. The peak intensity of 45 kts was main-
tained for the 30/2100 UTC advisory. Tropical Storm Hermine was now
expected to remain a separate entity, and its rapid northerly motion
caused it to overtake the slower-moving Gaston.
Hermine was basically a low-level cloud swirl devoid of deep
convection at 0300 UTC on 31 August with its MSW lowered to 35 kts, but
it was maintained as a tropical storm for this advisory even though Buoy
44004 reported sustained winds of only 30 kts and sea heights of
4.6 metres. This was to allow for a 35-kt wind maximum which could have
possibly existed close to the tropical cyclone's centre. Satellite
intensity estimates also supported 35-kt winds. Hermine then came ashore
near New Bedford, Massachusetts, around 31/0600 UTC. Maximum observed
surface winds were no more than 20 to 25 kts, and as the system had no
significant deep convection to speak of, Hermine was considered extra-
tropical and the last advisory issued on the system at 31/0900 UTC.
Hermine brought some heavy rain and wind gusts to near and slightly
in excess of tropical storm force early on the 31st, but no sustained
winds of tropical storm intensity were recorded in the landfall area.
Maximum rainfall amounts attributable to Tropical Storm Hermine were
mostly less than 13 mm, but rainbands from Gaston were close behind,
making it difficult to make an exact determination of rainfall totals
between these two systems. Highest tides reached 0.3 metre above the
predicted elevations as the storm passed by.
There were no reports of damage or casualties as a result of Tropical
Storm Hermine.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for August: 1 tropical depression
3 tropical storms **
1 hurricane
** - one of these storms (Howard) became a hurricane and intense
hurricane in early September
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
locations west of longitude 140W): discussions, public advisories,
forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have
been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to
sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
noted.
Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for August
----------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone activity was near normal in the Eastern North Pacific
during August. August averages for the period 1971-2003 are about 4 NS,
2 H, and one IH. August, 2004, produced four NS but only one hurricane;
however, the final storm, Howard, became a Category 4 hurricane during
the early days of September. Estelle formed rather far west from the
same tropical wave which had earlier spawned Atlantic Hurricane Charley
and moved into the Central North Pacific. The other three storms formed
much nearer the Mexican coast but moved generally northwestward away
from the mainland with only minimal effects felt along the coastline.
Reports on all the August tropical storms and hurricanes will be
issued according to the schedule below. A special thanks to John
Wallace and Kevin Boyle for writing most of the NEP cyclone reports.
Part 1 - none
Part 2 - none
Part 3 - Estelle, Frank (including TD-09E)
Part 4 - Georgette, Howard
NOTE: The official TPC/NHC storm reports for most of the Northeast
Pacific basin tropical cyclones are now available online at the
following link:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004epac.shtml>
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE
(TC-10E)
26 - 30 August
--------------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
A cyclonic disturbance off the southwest coast of Mexico steadily
organized late on 24 August and into the following day, quick on the
heels of Hurricane Frank. The disturbance tracked slowly west-
northwestward, paralleling the coast, and satellite data, in conjunction
with a ship report, warranted its upgrade to Tropical Depression Ten-E
at 1500 UTC on 16 August when located approximately 315 nm south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
The depression continued on the same west-northwesterly track it had
followed as a disturbance, and quickly intensified to become Tropical
Storm Georgette on the second advisory, at 2100 UTC on 26 August.
Remarkable visible GOES-10 imagery from this time showed Georgette
accompanying no less than three tropical cyclone remnants in the North-
east Pacific basin: ex-Hurricane Frank and ex-Tropical Depression Nine-E
to its northwest, and the fizzling vortex that was once Tropical Storm
Estelle southwest of the Big Island of Hawaii.
Georgette strengthened steadily, though less than it would have
without moderate easterly shear. It reached its first peak 1-min
MSW of 50 kts at 0900 UTC on 27 August, as it made a slow turn to a
more westerly track south of an expanding ridge. Georgette was then
centered about 350 nm south of Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula. Shear continued to erode Georgette's
convection, causing it to weaken slightly on the 28th while it settled
on a due westward course. However, convection made a comeback early on
the 29th, and the storm reached its second peak of 50 kts at 0900 UTC
that day with the lowest CP estimated at 997 mb.
Georgette weakened slightly again after its peak, but maintained a
more or less steady state as it traveled parallel to the 26 C isotherm
until the next day, when cool SSTs and stable air finally made themselves
felt in addition to the persistent shear. Georgette weakened rapidly to
a depression on the 30th, and the final advisory was issued at 1500 UTC
that day, placing the weakening center about 825 nm west-southwest of
Cabo San Lucas. Its large remnant vortex could be tracked in satellite
imagery for some time; as late as September 4th it underwent a photogenic
interaction with another LOW well to its north. By the 6th, though,
Georgette's remnants had fully dissipated.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
There are no known casualties or damage associated with Tropical
Storm Georgette.
(Report written by John Wallace)
HURRICANE HOWARD
(TC-11E)
30 August - 5 September
-------------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The disturbance that became Hurricane Howard developed quickly off
the southwestern Mexican coast late on 29 August and tracked west-
northwestward in the typical fashion of NEP storms. Its organization
improved over the course of a day, warranting its upgrade to Tropical
Depression Eleven-E at 2100 UTC on 30 August when located approximately
400 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. The new depression
subsequently continued on its initial west-northwesterly heading.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
The depression steadily strengthened, and became Tropical Storm Howard
at 0900 UTC on 31 August. Synoptic conditions and SSTs were quite
favorable, and Howard intensified steadily. Interestingly, the SHIPS
model forecast an 80% chance of rapid intensification as early as the
1st of September when it was only a 60-kt tropical storm. The NHC
followed this guidance in its forecasts, though there was little inkling
of it from Howard itself. As Howard reached hurricane status at 0900 UTC
on the 1st, SHIPS backed off on the intensity forecast, as did the NHC.
Howard strengthened slowly as a Category 1 hurricane for almost a full
day before dramatically exploding in intensity early on the 2nd, when it
shot up from Category 1 to Category 4 in only 12 hours. Howard's central
pressure plunged an estimated 37 mb during that time frame, for an
amazing average drop of over 3 mb per hour, firmly within the range for
explosive deepening (1). The rapid strengthening quickly took Howard to
its peak MSW of 120 kts, with a CP of 940 mb, at 02/1500 UTC when the
cyclone was located about 350 nm south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas.
Satellite imagery at this time revealed a classic pinhole eye embedded in
a cold, symmetric CDO.
After 12 hours at peak intensity and a bend more to the northwest,
Howard weakened slowly due to the influence of cooler SSTs along its
track. Nevertheless, Howard held on to to major hurricane status for
roughly 36 hours as SSTs remained more favorable than anticipated. Rapid
weakening commenced late on the 3rd as it finally crossed into hostile
waters and entrained stable air, and on the 4th, increasing shear
exacerbated its decline. Howard turned steadily more north-northwestward
as a trough eroded the ridge to its north.
On the 4th Howard weakened to a tropical storm, and the next day to a
depression. The final advisory on Tropical Depression Howard was issued
at 1500 UTC on 5 September when the weakening LOW was located roughly
500 nm west-northwest of Cabo San Lucas. Howard's low-level remnant
vortex was unusually persistent--it lingered off the northern coast of
Baja California for three days before turning southwestward ahead of
Tropical Storm Isis and losing its identity late on 10 September.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
No casualties or damages are known to have been caused by Hurricane
Howard.
D. References
-------------
(1.) <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml>
It's worth noting that Howard's intensification was somewhat delayed;
many, if not most TCs that rapidly or explosively deepen do so soon after
reaching hurricane strength.
(2.) <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/HOWARD.shtml?>
(Report written by John Wallace)
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for August: 4 tropical depressions **
3 tropical storms ++
4 typhoons
2 super typhoons
** - all of these were classified as tropical depressions by JMA only
++ - one of these (Malou/15W) was classified as a tropical storm by
several of the Asian TCWCs, but not by JTWC, while another (21W)
was classified as a tropical storm by JTWC only
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion
tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All
references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
unless otherwise noted.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
sends data taken from synoptic observations around the Northwest
Pacific basin. A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for
the assistance they so reliably provide.
In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the
JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
area of warning responsibility.
Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for August
----------------------------------------------
After a rather quiet July, which had come on the heels of a very
active June, the tropics of the Western North Pacific exploded to
produce a very active August. I do not yet have monthly statistics
available for the NWP basin, but if August, 2004, was not the most
active August on record there, it certainly must rank in the Top Five.
Nine systems reached tropical storm intensity, taking into account the
classifications from all the warning agencies. Six of these reached
typhoon intensity and two became super typhoons per JTWC's analysis.
All but one of the six typhoons struck populated areas in the NWP
basin:
Meranti - remained at sea
Rananim - China
Megi - South Korea
Chaba - Marianas, Japan
Aere - Taiwan, China
Songda - Marianas, Okinawa, Japan
Four systems were mentioned as tropical depressions in the High Seas
bulletins issued by JMA. The first of these was carried as a 30-kt
depression on 6 and 7 August. At 06/0600 UTC it was located roughly
600 nm east-southeast of Iwo Jima. The system moved generally in a
northeasterly direction and had weakened by 1200 UTC on the 7th, being
then located about 600 nm west-northwest of Wake Island. JTWC did
carry this system in their STWOs, and at one point assigned a fair
potential for development. A track, based on JMA's bulletins, was
included for this system in the companion August cyclone tracks file.
The remaining three JMA depressions were listed only in the Summary
portion of the High Seas bulletins. One weak circulation was located
in the vicinity of 20N/141E on 8 August and remained quasi-stationary.
Another depression, near 18N/133E, was mentioned only once, at 13/1200
UTC. The final of the three occurred on 27 and 28 August, being quasi-
stationary just west of the International Dateline near 10N/178E. JTWC
did give this system a fair development potential at one point. No
tracks were included for any of these weaker JMA depressions in the
August tracks file.
Reports on all the August tropical storms and typhoons will be issued
according to the schedule below. A special to Kevin Boyle for writing
several of the NWP cyclone reports, and to Huang Chunliang for sending
much information regarding meteorological observations as well as damage
and casualty figures.
Part 1 - Meranti, Malou, Rananim/Karen
Part 2 - Malakas, Megi/Lawin
Part 3 - Chaba, Aere/Marce
Part 4 - 21W, Songda/Nina
NOTE: Following the report on Super Typhoon Songda is an addendum to
the previous installment--a report on Typhoon Aere's visit to China
compiled and written by Huang Chunliang.
TROPICAL STORM
(TC-21W)
26 - 31 August
----------------------------------
A STWO issued by JTWC on 24 August noted that an area of convection
associated with a possible weak LLCC had developed approximately 700 nm
east-southeast of Guam. A QuikScat pass revealed a broad, weak circu-
lation center with increasing, though unorganized, deep convection. An
upper-level analysis indicated weak to moderate vertical shear with
weak diffluence aloft. The potential for development was assessed as
poor. Twenty-four hours later the disturbance had moved westward to
a point approximately 450 nm east-southeast of Guam with little change
in organization. Around 1500 UTC a QuikScat pass indicated consolidation
of the LLCC; hence, the development potential was upgraded to fair. A
TCFA was issued at 25/2130 UTC as convection continued to consolidate
around the LLCC in the face of weak vertical shear and favorable
divergence.
JMA classified the system as a 30-kt tropical depression at 0000 UTC
on 26 August, and JTWC issued their first warning on Tropical Depression
21W at 0600 UTC. The depression was located about 435 nm east of Guam
and moving slowly west-northwestward at 4 kts. Animated multi-spectral
imagery revealed well-defined low-level cloud lines converging in on
the LLCC with deep convection consolidating over the center. The
depression gradually intensified and was upgraded to Tropical Storm 21W
by JTWC at 26/1800 UTC when located about 365 nm east of Guam. Satellite
CI estimates were 30 and 35 kts, and convection had strengthened some
around the LLCC. By 27/0600 UTC the center had become fully-exposed
with the deep convection being displaced westward over Guam. Unfavorable
vertical shear was forecast to continue, and the storm was downgraded
back to depression status at 1200 UTC when centered approximately 245 nm
east-northeast of Guam.
The slowly weakening tropical cyclone continued to move initially
west-northwestward, then gradually turned back to the west. The final
warning from JTWC at 0600 UTC on 28 August placed the center 60 nm
north of Saipan. JMA continued to follow the residual depression in
their High Seas Bulletins for a few more days, the final reference being
at 0000 UTC on 31 August when the weak LOW was located approximately
750 nm west of Saipan. JTWC was the only warning agency which classi-
fied this system as a tropical storm.
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from short-lived
Tropical Storm 21W.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA
(TC-22W / TY 0418 / NINA)
27 August - 11 September
---------------------------------------------
Songda: contributed by Vietnam, is a branch of the Red River (the
largest in northern Vietnam) which rises in China and is
characterized by waterfalls with high hydroelectric potential
A. Introduction
---------------
Songda was the second super typhoon to affect the Marianas and Japan
in a week, forming a one-two with Super Typhoon Chaba. Songda formed in
a similar location to Chaba and followed an almost identical track across
the Pacific, through the northern Marianas before recurving and making
landfall over Japan, the third typhoon to strike that nation so far this
year.
B. Storm Origins
----------------
At 1100 UTC 26 August JTWC issued a STWO including a new area of
convection which had developed and persisted approximately 210 nm north-
east of Kwajalein. This is roughly the same area that spawned Super
Typhoon Chaba. Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery revealed that
the deep convection was becoming more organized over an already
established LLCC. As upper-level analysis indicated weak vertical shear
and favourable divergence over the area, the potential for development
was assessed as fair. A TCFA followed at 27/1130 UTC, by which time the
disturbance was passing north of Kwajalein. Deep convection continued
to consolidate over the centre and multi-spectral imagery noted a weak
spiral banding feature. The first warning on Tropical Depression 22W
was released by JTWC at 27/1200 UTC, locating the centre 270 nm east of
Eniwetak, moving westward at 6 kts.
C. Synoptic History
-------------------
From the time of the first warning at 1200 UTC 27 August it was all
systems go. Because of the ideal environmental conditions it was located
in, Tropical Depression 22W underwent rapid strengthening and was soon
upgraded to tropical storm intensity at 27/1800 UTC, but the system had
to wait a further six hours to be assigned the name Songda. JMA upgraded
the MSW to 35 kts (10-min avg) at 28/0000 UTC. Rapid intensification
continued, bringing Songda to the verge of typhoon intensity by 28/1200
UTC. The early stages of eyewall development were noted on a 29/1444 UTC
AMSR-E microwave pass. Intensification then ceased for awhile. Mean-
while, Songda had been tracking steadily west-northwestwards and was
located approximately 175 nm northwest of Eniwetak at 29/0000 UTC. The
storm passed north of that island between 28/1400-1500 UTC, bringing
sustained winds of tropical storm force and gusts to typhoon force. The
tropical cyclone was following the periphery of the low to mid-level
ridge located to the north and was expected to continue to do so over
the next few days.
Continuing on its west-northwesterly heading, Songda reached typhoon
intensity at 0600 UTC 29 August approximately 760 nm east of Saipan. At
this time the MSW was raised to 70 kts based on CI estimates of 55 and 65
kts. There was no further strengthening during the 29th, and in fact
there was very little else to report through the day, other than a
typhoon watch being issued for the island of Agrihan at 29/1558 UTC, and
also a brief westerly turn at 29/1800 UTC. Typhoon Songda was still
located some 580 nm east of Saipan, but the other island communities of
the northern Marianas were, by this time, more than aware of the storm's
presence, especially after Super Typhoon Chaba's rampage through there
only a week before. Songda strengthened a little more to 75 kts at
30/0000 UTC and the system began to expand in areal coverage. The
tropical cyclone took a brief westerly jog as it resumed its intensifi-
cation phase at 30/1200 UTC. By 1800 UTC Songda had become a rather
strong typhoon with a MSW of 95 kts.
At 0000 UTC 31 August Typhoon Songda was moving west-northwest at
10 kts across the Pacific with an increased MSW of 105 kts. At this time
it was located 250 nm east-northeast of Saipan. During the 31st Typhoon
Songda intensified significantly to 120 kts at 0600 UTC, to 125 kts at
1200 UTC, and to 130 kts six hours later. Thus, Songda became the fifth
super typhoon of 2004. The wind radii was representative of an average
to large-sized typhoon with gales extending up to 180 nm southwest of the
centre and 64-kt winds up to 50 nm in all quadrants. For the northern
Marianas there was good news and bad news. The good news was that Songda
had made a brief northwest turn at 31/1200 UTC, ensuring that Saipan and
Tinian would escape the worst of the winds. Unfortunately, this left
Pagan and Agrihan to bear the brunt of the storm, and typhoon-force wind
gusts were being observed on Pagan and Agrihan as the eyewall of Songda
approached. At 31/2100 UTC the eye was located about 29 nm east of Pagan
and 40 nm northeast of Alamagan.
Songda was not a super typhoon for long. The MSW were lowered to
125 kts at 0000 UTC 1 September, but this intensity was maintained for
the rest of the day. At this time the typhoon had slowed to around
7 kts and was moving towards the northwest. The centre of Songda passed
about 17 nm north-northeast of Agrihan at 01/0300 UTC. The tropical
cyclone subsequently accelerated and turned back towards the west-
northwest at 01/1200 UTC. Continuing west-northwestward, Typhoon Songda
began to slowly weaken on the 2nd with the MSW falling 5 kts per warning,
bringing the intensity down to 105 kts at 02/1200 UTC. However, the
storm began to pick up once again and the MSW rose back up to 110 kts at
02/1800 UTC. Animated satellite imagery indicated an increase in pole-
ward outflow which had resulted in improved convection on the northern
side of Songda's circulation. The cyclone had also turned westwards and
was now heading for its next port of call--Okinawa.
At 0000 UTC 3 September Typhoon Songda was moving westwards at 10 kts
approximately 525 nm east-southeast of Okinawa. The intensity had held
steady during the past six hours, but once again increased to 115 kts at
03/0600 UTC and to 120 kts at 03/1200 UTC. At 03/0600 UTC Typhoon Songda
had earned another name--Nina--after entering PAGASA's area of warning
responsibility. The storm began to slow as it turned west-northwestward
at 03/1800 UTC. By 04/0000 UTC Songda had moved to a position 300 nm
southeast of Okinawa and turned northwestward toward the island at
04/0600 UTC. At this time, a combination of AMSR-E, TRMM, and AMSU
microwave data revealed nearly symmetric convection surrounding the eye
with the most intense convection located in the eastern eyewall. As
Songda began to approach Okinawa it strengthened a little more, reaching
a secondary peak of 125 kts at 04/1200 UTC. This was maintained for
the rest of the day.
Typhoon Songda's strength began to wane as it neared Okinawa. The
MSW dropped to 120 kts at 0000 UTC 5 September when it was located 80 nm
southeast of Okinawa. Typhoon Songda passed a short distance north of
the island at 05/1000 UTC with the lowest SLP of 924 mb recorded at 0928
UTC. Weakening continued as the storm tracked to the northwest. The
intensity fell to 110 kts at 05/1200 UTC and remained at this strength
for another six hours. Songda turned north-northwestward at 06/0000 UTC,
and then northwards as it pushed through the ridge axis on its way
towards Japan. The 06/0000 UTC placed the centre 285 nm south-southwest
of Sasebo, Japan. The MSW fell below 100 kts at this time and down to
90 kts at 06/1200 UTC as Songda recurved north-northeastwards and began
to accelerate. Water vapor imagery at 06/1800 UTC showed dry air being
sucked into the southwestern quadrant.
At 0000 UTC 7 September Songda was about to make landfall on the
northwestern coast of Kyushu and at this time was centred 50 nm southwest
of Sasebo, Japan. The intensity had held at 90 kts since 1200 UTC of
the 6th, but began to slowly drop off as the storm tracked further
inland. Songda came ashore near the city of Nagasaki with the MSW
(10-min avg) at 80 kts and a CP of 945 hPa. The tropical cyclone
accelerated northeastwards at 34 kts as it moved across southwestern
Japan. Weakening continued as the typhoon moved into the Sea of Japan.
The MSW dropped below typhoon strength and Songda was downgraded to a
tropical storm at 07/1800 UTC. By this time its forward speed had
increased to 50 kts. JTWC issued the final warning at 1800 UTC, placing
the centre approximately 100 nm north of Misawa, Japan. Satellite
imagery indicated that Songda was embedded in the subtropical jet and had
completed its transformation into an extratropical LOW. JMA released
their final bulletin at 08/0600 UTC. The extratropical gale continued
eastward as it slowly weakened. By late on the 10th it had crossed the
Dateline in the Bering Sea and was last referenced in JMA's bulletins
at 11/0000 UTC.
JMA regarded Songda as a Very Severe Typhoon with a peak intensity of
90 kts, and the lowest CP estimated by that agency was 935 hPa. NMCC and
CWBB estimated the MSW at 120 kts and 100 kts, respectively. During the
time that Songda/Nina was in PAGASA's AOR, the typhoon's maximum
intensity was estimated at 85 kts. HKO did not issue warnings on this
system since it remained outside their AOR.
D. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
Following are some observations from Japan and Korea compiled and sent
by Huang Chunliang. A special thanks to Chunliang for sending the
information. An asterisk (*) beside any number indicates a new record
value for the relevant station. To convert wind speed in metres/second
(m/s) to knots (kts), divide m/s by 0.51444, or to approximate, just
double the m/s value.
{Part I}. Landfall (based on the JMA warnings)
==============================================
1. Very Severe Typhoon 0418 (SONGDA) made landfall over northern Okinawa
Island around 05/1000 UTC with a MSW of 45 m/s and a CP of 925 hPa.
2. Severe Typhoon 0418 (SONGDA) made landfall near Nagasaki City around
07/0030 UTC with a MSW of 40 m/s and a CP of 945 hPa.
{Part II}. Top-5 Storm Totals [03/1500-08/1500Z]
================================================
Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm)
-------------------------------------------------------------
01 Miyazaki Morotsuka 905
02 Miyazaki Mikado 573
03 Miyazaki Nishimera 549
04 Ehime Jojushya 545
05 Tokushima Kitou 542
{Part III}. Top-5 Daily Rainfall Obs
====================================
Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
01 Miyazaki Morotsuka 358 [05/1500-06/1500Z]
02 Ehime Jojushya 342 [06/1500-07/1500Z]
03 Miyazaki Nishimera 304 [05/1500-06/1500Z]
04 Miyazaki Ebino 301 [06/1500-07/1500Z]
05 Ehime Tomisato 282 [06/1500-07/1500Z]
{Part IV}. Top-5 Hourly Rainfall Obs
====================================
Ranking Prefecture Station Rainfall (mm)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
01 Shizuoka Shimizu *102 [04/1320-04/1420Z]
02 Nagano Nagiso *89 [04/0700-04/0800Z]
02 Mie Kiraramine *89 [05/0940-05/1040Z]
04 Shizuoka Inatori *88 [04/1120-04/1220Z]
05 Mie Kiinagashima *85 [05/1130-05/1230Z]
{Part V}. Top-5 Peak Sustained Wind (10-min avg) Obs
====================================================
Ranking Station Peak wind (mps/dir)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
01 Seto, Ehime (JMA73341, Alt 143m) *42 [07/0230Z]
02 Nomozaki, Nagasaki (JMA84596, Alt 190m) 38 [06/2330Z]
03 Okinoerabu, Kagoshima (WMO47942, Alt 27m) 36.7 [05/1330Z]
04 Hiroshima, Hiroshima (WMO47765, Alt 4m) 33.3 [07/0540Z]
05 Ube, Yamaguchi (JMA81436, Alt 5m) *32 [07/0110Z]
{Part VI}. Top-5 Peak Gust Obs
==============================
Ranking Station Peak wind (mps/dir)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
01 Hiroshima, Hiroshima (WMO47765, Alt 4m) *60.2 [07/0520Z]
02 Asosan, Kumamoto (WMO47821, Alt 1142m) 57.1 [07/0419Z]
03 Saigou, Shimane (WMO47740, Alt 27m) *55.8 [07/0809Z]
04 Okinoerabu, Kagoshima (WMO47942, Alt 27m) 53.6 [05/1314Z]
05 Unzendake, Nagasaki (WMO47818, Alt 678m) *53.2 [07/0122Z]
{Part VII}. Top-5 SLP Obs
=========================
Ranking Station Min SLP (hPa)
----------------------------------------------------------------
01 Nago, Okinawa (WMO47940) *924.4 [05/0928Z]
02 Saga, Saga (WMO47813) 944.3 [07/0140Z]
03 Nagasaki, Nagasaki (WMO47817) 948.0 [07/0044Z]
04 Iizuka, Fukuoka (WMO47809) 948.7 [07/0228Z]
05 Naha, Okinawa (WMO47936) 950.0 [05/0723Z]
{Part VIII} References (Japanese versions only)
===============================================
<http://www.data.kishou.go.jp>
<http://www.osaka-jma.go.jp/gyomusyokai/kikocho/saigai/h16/ty200418.pdf>
{Part IX} Rainfall Obs from the REPUBLIC OF KOREA
=================================================
Only amounts >= 100 mm listed:
ULLEUNGDO (37.48N 130.90E 220m) 112.0 mm [06/00-07/00Z]
ULLEUNGDO (37.48N 130.90E 220m) 101.5 mm [07/00-08/00Z]
MUNSAN (37.88N 126.75E 31m) 103.4 mm [06/12-07/12Z]
POHANG (36.03N 129.38E 4m) 110.5 mm [06/12-07/12Z]
E. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
News reports indicate that Typhoon Songda killed 20 people and injured
700 others in Japan. In addition, 15 crew members of a vessel were
reported missing. Songda arrived shortly after three earthquakes had
struck the country a few days prior.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle with contributions by Huang Chunliang)
ADDENDUM to Part 3 of the August Summary
Report on Typhoon Aere by Huang Chunliang
-------------------------------------------------------------
{Part I} Landfalls
==================
According to the NMC bulletins, Typhoon 0418 (Aere) made four land-
falls in the mainland of Fujian Province, which possesses the most
flexuous coastline of China: Typhoon 0418 (Aere) made landfall in
Gaoshan Town, Fuqing City (a sub-city of Fuzhou City), Fujian Province,
around 25/0830 UTC with a MSW of 36 m/s and a CP of 970 hPa. As a
result, Aere turned out to be the first tropical cyclone to make land-
fall in Fuzhou with typhoon intensity since Typhoon 0102 (Chebi).
Interestingly, the town of Gaoshan was exactly where deadly Typhoon
0102 (Chebi) made landfall on June 23, 2001.
Typhoon 0418 (Aere) next made landfall in Shishi City (a sub-city of
Quanzhou City), Fujian Province, around 25/1330 UTC with a MSW of 33 m/s
and a CP of 970 hPa. Severe Tropical Storm 0418 (Aere) also made land-
fall in Gangwei Town, Longhai City (a sub-city of Zhangzhou City), Fujian
Province, around 25/1830 UTC with a MSW of 30 m/s and a CP of 975 hPa.
Finally, Tropical Storm 0418 (Aere) made landfall in Dongshan County,
Zhangzhou City, Fujian Province, around 26/0230 UTC with a MSW of 20 m/s
and a CP of 985 hPa.
This typhoon also passed over at least two of the Fujian islands,
including Pingtan Dao (Fuzhou City) and Nanri Dao (Putian City), the
former island being the fifth biggest one in China:
(1) Typhoon Aere made landfall in Pingtan County, Fuzhou City, Fujian
Province, around 25/0750 UTC.
(2) Typhoon Aere made landfall in Nanri Town, Xiuyu District, Putian
City, Fujian Province, just shortly after moving into the sea from
Fuqing's Longgao Peninsula, where the typhoon made its first landfall
on the mainland.
{Part II} Fujian Obs
====================
(1) Rain
========
During the 72-hr period ending at 27/0000Z, rains >100 mm were
recorded in 26 cities/counties, 7 of which reported rains >200 mm with
Fuding (located in Ningde City) reporting the highest amount of 663 mm.
(Qinglan Reservoir located in Zherong County, Ningde City, reported the
highest 24-hr accumulation of 504 mm.)
(2) Wind
========
13 WMO stations of coastal Fujian reported gusts of gale force or
higher:
Station Peak Gust
------------------------------------------------
Zherong, Ningde City 32 m/s (ESE)
Fu'an, Ningde City 20 m/s (ENE)
Fuding, Ningde City 20 m/s (ENE)
Pingtan, Fuzhou City 27 m/s (NNE)
Fuqing, Fuzhou City 20 m/s (NE)
Xianyou, Putian City 20 m/s (NNE)
Tong'an, Xiamen City 22 m/s (NW)
Xiamen, Xiamen City 33 m/s (NNW)
Chongwu, Quanzhou City 25 m/s (NW)
Zhangpu, Zhangzhou City 21 m/s (N)
Dongshan, Zhangzhou City 19 m/s (W)
Longhai, Zhangzhou City 21 m/s (WNW)
All the insular automatic stations of northern and middle Fujian
reported gusts of typhoon force or higher:
Station Peak Gust DD/HH
--------------------------------------------------------
Taishan 37.1 m/s (N) 24/1600Z
Xiyang 43.8 m/s (ENE) 25/0300Z
Pingtan 35.8 m/s (NNE) 25/0800Z
Nanri 43.8 m/s (NW) 25/0800Z
Weitou 34.4 m/s (S) 25/1600Z
{Part III} Taiwan Obs
=====================
(1) Rain
========
A few stations recorded storm totals exceeding 1000 mm:
Station Rainfall (mm)
--------------------------------------------------------
Matala, Miaoli County 1546 [22/1600-25/1200Z]
Pai Lan, Hsinchu County 1335 [22/1600-25/1200Z]
Hsuen-lin, Taichung County 1243 [22/1600-25/1500Z]
(2) Wind
========
Only those stations that reported peak sustained winds of gale force
or peak gusts of typhoon force are given:
Station Peak Sustained Wind Peak Gust
(mps/dir/Local Date) (mps/dir/Local Date)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
An Bu (WMO46691) 25.9/350/24th 42.2/10 /24th
Taipei (WMO46692/58968) 13.3/320/24th 33.1/350/24th
Chu-tzu-hu (WMO46693) 10.2/180/25th 33.1/20 /25th
Keelung (WMO46694) 17.9/210/25th 34.4/240/25th
Ilan (WMO46708) 20.9/330/24th 34.1/330/24th
Lanyu (WMO46762/59567) 30.4/250/24th 44.1/250/24th
Kinmen (WMO46736/59135) 24.1/270/25th 31.9/280/25th
{Part IV} Zhejiang Obs
======================
During the 31-hr period ending at 25/0700Z, rains >100 mm were
recorded at 14 stations with Haishan (162.7 mm), Pingyang (157.4 mm)
and Wencheng (152.6 mm) ranking the top three. Significant gust reports
included: Zhaoshandu, Rui'an City (coastal station)--34.9 m/s; Beiji
(insular station)--31.4 m/s; Nanji (insular station)--30.4 m/s; Dachen
(insular station)--30.1 m/s.
Around 24/1755Z, 6 villages located in Gaoqiao Town, Yinzhou District,
Ningbo City, were struck by a tornado, which was triggered by Typhoon
Aere. The tornado did cause some economic losses, but no casualties were
reported.
{Part V} Guangdong Obs
======================
Torrential rains lasted for nearly five days (Sep 26--30) in Guangdong
during the period when the remnant depression, formerly Typhoon Aere,
traversed the province from the neighboring Fujian.
Zhuhai City was hammered by Aere's downpours when the remnant arrived
in the mouth of Pearl River on the 29th. Five stations recorded 6-hr
[0000-0600Z] rainfall amounts that ranged from 100 mm to 160 mm. The
most torrential rain--38 mm/minute--was reported by the urban area of
the city.
{Part VI} Other Obs (from Hainan Province, Hong Kong & Macao Special
Administrative Regions
====================================================================
Station Coordinates Rainfall (mm)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Haikou, Hainan 20.03N 110.35E 154.0 [28/00-29/00Z]
Dongfang, Hainan 19.10N 108.62E 312.8 [27/00-30/00Z]
Danxian, Hainan 19.52N 109.58E 252.9 [27/00-30/00Z]
Hong Kong Int. AP, Hong Kong 22.32N 113.92E 184.1 [28/00-30/00Z]
Taipa Grande, Macao 22.17N 113.57E 215.0 [28/00-30/00Z]
The HKO report on TY Aere can be found at the following link:
<http://www.weather.gov.hk/informtc/aere/aere.htm>
{Part VII} Damage and Casualties
================================
(1) Fujian
==========
Preliminary statistics on August 26 indicated that the typhoon had
caused 2.485 billion yuan of direct economic losses and was responsible
for two deaths in the province. Aere also affected 3,479,900 residents
in 421 towns of 48 counties of 6 cities in Fujian, where three cities
were flooded, 10,100 houses were toppled, 236 embankments and thousands
of water conservancy facilities were damaged. Some 937,000 people were
evacuated and 10,676 vessels were called back before the typhoon's
arrival.
(2) Taiwan
==========
Typhoon Aere pounded northern Taiwan with torrential rains and strong
winds before hugging the coast of Fujian, causing widespread disruption
to air and sea transport. It caused 24 deaths and left nine people
missing in the region. Water supply to 910,000 households was cut off,
and power supply to 360,000 households was disrupted. The economic
losses were estimated to have been at least NT$ 400 million.
{Part VIII} First "Black Typhoon" for Fuzhou
============================================
The local government of Fuzhou, the provincial capital of Fujian,
ordered work to stop at all construction sites and cancelled after-class
activities at schools and universities when the city was under their
first Black Typhoon Signal in history. (Starting from 2003, a system of
color-coded typhoon warning signals labeled white, green, yellow, red
and black in an ascending order was employed in Fujian Province to give
information to the residents on the existence and the potential threat
of a tropical cyclone. A Black Typhoon Signal, the most severe of the
five grades, indicates that a tropical cyclone is affecting the district
or is to affect the district within the next 12 hours with sustained
wind of Beaufort Force 12 or higher.)
Typhoon Aere played havoc with the traffic of the city. Flights
associated with the Changle Int. AP, which happened to be the destination
of my flight which departed from Shanghai (please refer to Part IX for
HCl's encounter with Typhoon Aere), were either cancelled or delayed and
the whole airdrome had to be shut down for several hours during the
typhoon. Meanwhile, the traffic of the urban area, as well as several
thruways starting from the city, were also under extraordinary control.
Trains and buses travelling on local short-distance routes, however,
were immune from the storm.
{Part IX} HCl's "Reconnaissance Mission" of Aere
================================================
Below is my experience of coming up against Typhoon Aere in the air
10,000 meters above the sea level. (Time in BJT, i.e., GMT + 8 hours.)
I booked an airline ticket of MF8548 (Shanghai--Fuzhou, 05:05 p.m. on
the 25th of August) 9 days ahead of schedule. Of course, I didn't know
beforehand that it would become my first "reconnaissance mission" of a
typhoon, which shared the same destination with me exactly on the same
afternoon.
I had just arrived at the Shanghai Hongqiao Int. AP that afternoon
when I saw the notice, saying that MF8548 had been cancelled due to the
severe weather condition at the port of destination. Nevertheless, a few
hours later we were informed that all the scheming passengers of MF8548
had been incorporated into another delayed flight, MF8542, which should
have been the first one heading for Fuzhou that afternoon.
My plane eventually took off from Shanghai Hongqiao Int. AP in good
weather condition at 09:35 p.m. So the take-off and climb were smooth
enough for me to enjoy the beautiful nocturnal view of Shanghai in a
merry mood. As soon as we reached cruising altitude, the public address
announced to the passengers that the plane was scheduled to arrive at
the port of destination on time at 10:35 p.m.
Being on a night flight for the first time (though not out of my
original intention), I was fairly busy looking out of the window just
next to my seat--12F--during the in-flight services. At first I
managed to see nothing but the faint horizon. However, as we flew more
and more southward, the grey clouds emerged and then increased gradually.
I also noticed that all the video screens overhead were kept off all
the way. Besides, everything remained well-regulated with a few weak
turbulences until the "landing time" (of Plan A) drew near.
A powerful turbulence burst occurred around 10:20 p.m. and lasted
for nearly two minutes. The plane was bounced so violently that one
of the passengers became sick. I realized afterwards that the "Fasten
Seat Belts" sign lit before the turbulence, was not cancelled until the
plane pulled in.)
It was 10:35 p.m., the exact scheduled time for landing, but the
plane refused to even drop in altitude! As a result, the majority
of the passengers (including me), whether acquaintances or not, began to
whisper to each other. Before long, the public address sounded again in
due course, notifying that the landing time had been delayed to 11:05
p.m. (so they were going to go with Plan B), which would become the
bona fide one.
During most of the "overtime", we were lacking in everything except
one-by-one turbulences, among which, another powerful one made another
passenger ill. This one also lasted for nearly two minutes when the
plane was struggling through the typhoon as if were riding on an
obstinate and unruly bronco.
Surprisingly, the eventual landing turned out to be a relatively
smooth one. "Thank goodness! At last we're safe now!"...some of the
passengers remarked when the plane was sliding on the damp airstrip of
Fuzhou Changle Int. AP around 11:05 p.m.
Looking back on the satellite pics, the hazy eye of Typhoon Aere,
which had weakened into an intensity of 65 knots (per NMC), was located
near 24.6 N/118.6 E when my plane was landing near 26.0 N/119.5 E.
(Report written by Huang Chunliang)
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for August: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for August: 1 tropical depression
Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for August
---------------------------------------------------
The 2004-2005 Southern Hemisphere season got off to an early start
with the formation of a tropical depression (designated as Tropical
Depression 01) by Meteo France La Reunion. This system formed just
west of 90E and subsequently moved southeastward into Perth's AOR where
it became Tropical Cyclone Phoebe on 2 September (TC-01S per JTWC).
Since Phoebe became a named cyclone in September, it will be covered
in next month's summary.
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E
Activity for August: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E
Activity for August: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for August: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
to send them a copy.
*************************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
these via e-mail, please send me a message.)
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
Chris Landsea):
<http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
<http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
<http://mpittweather.com>
<ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
<http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical
Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2003 (2002-2003 season for the Southern
Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also.
The URL is: <http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 2003 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2003 Atlantic
and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.
The URL is: <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.
PREPARED BY
Gary Padgett
E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com
Phone: 334-222-5327
Kevin Boyle (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
China Sea)
E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com
John Wallace (Assistance with Eastern North Pacific)
E-mail: dosidicus@aol.com
Huang Chunliang (Assistance with Western Northwest Pacific, South
China Sea)
E-mail: huangchunliang@hotmail.com
Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
E-mail: saclarke@iprimus.com.au
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
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