MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
JANUARY, 2005
Second Installment
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
SPECIAL NOTE: The January summary is being issued in two installments.
The first part covered both regions of the South Indian Ocean, and in
addition took a brief look at two interesting Atlantic systems, one
north of the equator and one in the South Atlantic. This second part
covers the Northwest Pacific and North Indian Ocean basins as well as
the entire South Pacific east of longitude 135E. Also, the Feature of
the Month can be found in this installment.
*************************************************************************
JANUARY HIGHLIGHTS
--> First Northwest Pacific tropical storm of year forms
--> Unusual Bay of Bengal tropical storm develops
--> Southwest Indian active--two storms strike Madagascar
--> Long-lived Coral Sea cyclone affects Vanuatu
--> Several minor, short-lived cyclones in Southeast Indian Ocean
*************************************************************************
***** Feature of the Month for January *****
TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN
Beginning in 2000 tropical storms and typhoons forming in the North
Pacific west of the Dateline are assigned names by JMA taken from a
new list of Asian names contributed by fourteen nations and territories
from the western Pacific and eastern Asia. Names are not allocated
in alphabetical order and the majority are not personal names--instead
names of animals, plants, fictional characters, descriptive adjectives,
places--even foods--are utilized. The entire list consists of 140
names and all names will be used before any are repeated. The last
name assigned in 2004 was Noru in late December while two tropical
cyclones, Kulap and Roke, have already been named in 2005.
The next 36 names on the list are (** indicates name has already
been assigned in 2005):
Kulap ** Sanvu Longwang Kaemi
Roke ** Mawar Kirogi Prapiroon
Sonca Guchol Kai-tak Maria
Nesat Talim Tembin Saomai
Haitang Nabi Bolaven Bopha
Nalgae Khanun Chanchu Wukong
Banyan Vicente Jelawat Sonamu
Washi Saola Ewiniar Shanshan
Matsa Damrey Bilis Yagi
Since 1963 PAGASA has independently named tropical cyclones forming
in the Philippines' AOR--from 115E to 135E and from 5N to 25N (except
for a portion of the northwestern corner of the above region). Even
though the Philippines contributed ten names to the international list
of typhoon names, PAGASA still continues to assign their own names for
local use within the Philippines. It is felt that familiar names are
more easily remembered in the rural areas and that having a PAGASA-
assigned name helps to underscore the fact that the cyclone is within
PAGASA's AOR and potentially a threat to the Philippines. Another
consideration may be PAGASA's desire to assign a name when a system is
first classified as a tropical depression. Since tropical and/or
monsoon depressions can bring very heavy rainfall to the nation which
often results in disastrous flooding, the weather service feels that
assigning a name helps to enhance public attention given to a system.
Beginning with 2001 PAGASA began using new sets of cyclone names.
These do not all end in "ng" as did the older names. Four sets of 25
names will be rotated annually; thus, the set for 2005 will be re-used
in 2009. In case more than 25 systems are named in one season, an
auxiliary set will be used. PAGASA names for 2005 are (** indicates
name has already been assigned in 2005):
Auring ** Jolina Ramil
Bising Kiko Santi
Crising Labuyo Tino
Dante Maring Undang
Emong Nando Vinta
Feria Ondoy Wilma
Gorio Pepeng Yolanda
Huaning Quedan Zoraida
Isang
In the unlikely event that the list is exhausted, the following
names would be allocated as needed: Alamid, Bruno, Conching, Dolor,
Ernie, Florante, Gerardo, Hernan, Isko and Jerome.
**** Index to Feature of the Month Articles for 2004 ****
Jan - TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN
(also Index to Feature of the Month Articles for 2003)
Feb - TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA for the AUSTRALIAN REGION
Mar - WESTERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for 2004
and UPDATED TABLES OF ATLANTIC NET TROPICAL ACTIVITY
Apr - TABLES OF NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NET TROPICAL ACTIVITY
May - SURVEY RESULTS - SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE QUESTIONS
Jun - "MOZ-MIDGETS" AND "MED-CANES"
Jul - MONSOON DEPRESSIONS AND STRONG TROPICAL WAVES
Aug - SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES 2004 - 2005 SEASON
and NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES
Sep - ONE-HIT WONDERS AND SUPER TYPHOONS
Oct - A COMPARISON OF THE WIND FIELDS IN HURRICANE EDNA (1954)
AND HURRICANE JUAN (2003) (by Chris Fogarty)
Nov - A REVIEW OF THE 2003-2004 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON
FOR THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
Dec - A REVIEW OF THE 2004 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON
FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
*************************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for January: No tropical cyclones
NOTE!!! The North Atlantic basin was covered in the first installment
of the January summary.
*************************************************************************
SOUTH ATLANTIC (SAT) - Atlantic Ocean South of the Equator
Activity for January: No tropical cyclones
NOTE!!! The South Atlantic basin was covered in the first installment
of the January summary.
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for January: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for January: 1 tropical storm
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion
tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All
references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
unless otherwise noted.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
sends data taken from synoptic observations around the Northwest
Pacific basin. A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for
the assistance they so reliably provide.
In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the
JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
area of warning responsibility.
Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for January
-----------------------------------------------
January tropical cyclones are not exactly common in the Western North
Pacific basin, but they are not all that rare either. The first named
tropical storm of the 2005 season appeared around the middle of January
and pursued a northward track which took it just east of the Mariana
Islands. Tropical Storm Kulap's track was quite similar to the track
of the final cyclone of 2004, Tropical Storm Noru. Kulap almost reached
typhoon intensity, and there are some tropical cyclone researchers who
feel that the system did briefly become a typhoon. A report on Kulap,
written by Kevin Boyle, follows.
TROPICAL STORM KULAP
(TC-01W / STS 0501)
13 - 19 January
----------------------------------------
Kulap: contributed by Thailand, is the Thai word for 'rose'
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The first significant tropical cyclone of 2005 in the Northwest
Pacific (See Note) originated from a disturbance near 4.5N/152.0E that
was included in JTWC's STWO at 1200 UTC 12 January. At that time, deep
convection was beginning to consolidate over a broad LLCC and upper-level
analysis depicted a light wind shear environment and moderate diffluence.
Development of the system continued and a TCFA was issued at 13/1400 UTC.
This was superseded by the first JTWC warning at 13/1800 UTC which placed
the centre of Tropical Depression 01W approximately 115 nm southwest of
Chuuk. Tropical Depression 01W proceeded to strengthen slowly during the
14th as it drifted erratically west to west-northwestward and reached
tropical storm intensity at 1800 UTC 14 January approximately 430 nm
south-southeast of Guam. At this time, QuikScat imagery showed a large
area of gale-force winds extending well to the north of the centre.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Initially tracking west to west-northwestward, Tropical Storm 01W
turned northwards at 0600 UTC 15 January with the LLCC relocated to a
position approximately 375 nm south-southeast of Guam. Gradual
strengthening brought the MSW up to 45 kts by 15/1200 UTC, this intensity
then remaining constant for a further 24 hours. JMA upgraded the
system to tropical storm intensity at this time, dubbing the system
Kulap. Tropical Storm Kulap continued north on a track that paralleled
the Marianas, making its closest approach to Guam at 16/1200 UTC when it
passed 130 nm to the east. After a slight dip in intensity at 17/0000
UTC, Kulap intensified again, reaching a peak intensity of 60 kts at
17/1800 UTC. At this time, a northeasterly heading had already become
established, the system having recurved around the low to mid-level
steering ridge to the east.
Tropical Storm Kulap maintained its maximum intensity of 60 kts as it
turned east-northeastwards at 0000 UTC 18 March, being located
approximately 355 nm east-northeast of Saipan. In fact, Kulap remained
a strong tropical storm for a large portion of the 18th even as it began
to approach the mid-latitude westerlies, but the storm began to quickly
lose steam at 18/1800 UTC when the MSW was finally brought down to
45 kts. At this point, JTWC decided to call it a day and released the
final warning with Kulap located about 615 nm west of Wake Island and
racing east-northeastward at 23 kts as it began to undergo extratropical
transition. JMA continued issuing tropical cyclone bulletins for another
12 hours before downgrading Kulap to a low-pressure area.
All Asian warning agencies except HKO and PAGASA estimated peak MSWs
of 50 kts with JMA estimating a minimum CP of 985 mb. Neither HKO nor
PAGASA issued warnings on this system.
(Editor's Note: Mark Lander and Roger Edson feel that Kulap quite
possibly attained typhoon intensity for a brief period on the morning
of 17 January. However, as Mark points out, it is a close call, and
JTWC's available intensity estimates from the official satellite
agencies were ranging from 45 to 65 kts. Normally 5 or 10 kts isn't
worth arguing about, but since the number of Western Pacific typhoons
is an important and widely-cited climatological statistic, that
particular 5 or 10 kts has a disproportionate importance.)
A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Storm Kulap may be found
at the following link:
<http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/PACIFIC_
WEST/2005_01W_BT.gif>
(Note: Even though Tropical Storm Kulap was the first significant
tropical cyclone of 2005 in the Northwest Pacific, it could also be
considered the last storm of the 2004 season. Climatologically speaking,
tropical systems can occur at any time of the year in this basin, but
February statistically has the lowest average number. Therefore,
January may be considered a late season month in the Northwest Pacific
tropical cyclone calendar.)
C. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
Huang Chunliang send the following rainfall observations from
Chuuk in association with Tropical Storm Kulap:
Only daily amounts >= 100 mm listed:
CHUUK, ECI (7.45N 151.83E) 166.6 mm [13/06-14/06Z]
CHUUK, ECI (7.45N 151.83E) 139.4 mm [13/18-14/18Z]
D. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
There were no damages or casualties known to have been caused by
Tropical Storm Kulap.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle with contributions by Huang Chunliang)
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for January: 1 tropical depression
1 cyclonic storm
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some
information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks
and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department
(IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin.
The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute
averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic
observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied. In the North Indian Ocean
basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has
become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status
within 48 hours.
North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for January
------------------------------------------------
While January tropical cyclones are much rarer in the North Indian
Ocean region than in the Northwest Pacific, they are not altogether
unknown. Cyclones of tropical storm intensity formed in the North
Indian Ocean in 1986 and 1991, the former in the Bay of Bengal and the
second in the Arabian Sea. January of 2005 saw the formation of two
numbered (by JTWC) systems in the Bay of Bengal. Tropical Cyclone 01B
was a very weak tropical depression which formed during the second week
of the month roughly a couple hundred miles southeast of southern Sri
Lanka. The system drifted erratically northward for a couple of days,
dissipating on the 10th. Estimated peak winds did not exceed 25 kts.
A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Cyclone 01B may be found at
the following link:
<http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/INDIAN_N
ORTH/2005_01B_BT.gif>
The second Bay of Bengal cyclone came on the heels of TC-01B, forming
around mid-month several hundred miles east-southeast of Sri Lanka.
This system, known as Tropical Cyclone 02B by JTWC, developed into a
minimal tropical storm (per both JTWC's and IMD's analysis) and was
christened as Cyclonic Storm Hibaru by IMD. A report on Cyclonic Storm
Hibaru follows.
CYCLONIC STORM HIBARU
(TC-02B / BOB0501)
13 - 17 January
-----------------------------------------
Hibaru: contributed by the Maldives
On 10 January an area of convection developed and persisted about
475 nm east-southeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka. The convection was
associated with an area of broad troughing, but microwave imagery
indicated no clear LLCC. Favorable diffluence lay over the system
and vertical shear was weak. The next day the disturbance was located
about 600 nm east-southeast of Colombo and there had been some
consolidation of the associated deep convection. QuikScat data indicated
enhanced winds both poleward and equatorward of an elongated LLCC. JTWC
upped the potential for development to 'fair'. Very slow development
ensued on the 12th and into the 13th--at 13/1300 UTC JTWC issued the
first TCFA for the system. Deep convection was becoming better organized
over the LLCC with spiral banding evident to the north. At about the
same time IMD classified the LOW as a depression, later upgrading it to
a deep depression (i.e., 30 kts) at 0300 UTC on 14 January. JTWC issued
a second TCFA at 14/1300 UTC, followed by the first warning on TC-02B
at 1800 UTC. The initial MSW was set at 35 kts and the cyclone's center
was quasi-stationary approximately 440 nm east-southeast of Colombo.
Tropical Cyclone 02B's track was very erratic. Throughout its life-
time the system meandered slowly a few hundred miles east-southeast of
Sri Lanka. It is not certain at what point IMD upgraded the system
to cyclonic storm status. At 14/1200 UTC it was still classified as a
deep depression. On the next warning which I have available (15/1800
UTC) it was classified as a cyclonic storm. This system was named Hibaru
by IMD--I do have a warning issued at 16/0000 UTC in which the system was
referred to as (interestingly) 'Tropical' Storm Hibaru. Hibaru for the
most part drifted very slowly southward on the 15th and 16th. At
16/1800 UTC it was relocated to the northwest to a position 360 nm east-
southeast of Colombo, tracking north-northwestward at 6 kts. At this
time JTWC dropped the MSW to 30 kts, and at 17/0000 UTC the final JTWC
warning was issued, lowering the winds to 25 kts. Satellite CI estimates
were 25 and 30 kts, and the partially-exposed LLCC was located to the
northeast of the remaining deep convection.
The cyclone's slow and erratic motion resulted from a weak steering
environment balanced by a low to mid-level ridge to the north of the
system and westerlies along the equator. The highest MSW estimated by
both JTWC and IMD was 35 kts (1-min avg).
A graphic displaying the track of Cyclonic Storm Hibaru may be found
at the following link:
<http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/INDIAN_N
ORTH/2005_02B-HIBARU_BT.gif>
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Cyclonic
Storm Hibaru.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for January: 1 tropical depression
2 tropical storms **
1 intense tropical cyclone
** - JTWC issued no warnings for one of these systems
NOTE!!! The Southwest Indian Ocean basin was covered in the first
installment of the January summary.
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E
Activity for January: 1 tropical LOW **
1 inland monsoon LOW
3 tropical cyclones
** - classfied as a minimal tropical storm by JTWC
NOTE!!! The Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean region was
covered in the first installment of the January summary.
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E
Activity for January: 1 tropical/hybrid LOW
1 severe tropical cyclone **
** - system originated east of 160E in Fiji's AOR
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Northeast Australia/Coral Sea tropical cyclones are the warnings
and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at
Brisbane, Queensland, and Darwin, Northern Territory, and on very
infrequent occasions, by the centre at Port Moresby, Papua New
Guinea. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging
period unless otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor-
dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the
source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included
in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.
Northeast Australia/Coral Sea
Tropical Activity for January
-----------------------------
No tropical cyclones formed in Southern Hemisphere waters between
135E and 160E during January, but one interesting system developed which
produced significant effects in Queensland and New South Wales. The
initial tropical LOW had very good development potential except for one
thing: it was located inland over the Cape York Peninsula. Later, a
new center formed under some of the LOW's associated convection and moved
offshore, strengthening as a hybrid system. During this stage very
heavy rainfall fell over parts of the two Australian states, and there
were also some drownings reported due to heavy surf. Following is a
report on this interesting weather system written by Simon Clarke.
Also, there was a visitor to the Australian Region from east of 160E
during January. Severe Tropical Cyclone Kerry entered Brisbane's AOR
shortly after intensifying to hurricane strength. The cyclone, however,
stalled and moved generally southward for several days just west of 160E.
The report on Kerry can be found below in the section covering the South
Pacific basin.
CAPE YORK LOW & CORAL SEA HYBRID
(NRL Invest Areas 98P & 92P)
19 - 25 January
----------------------------------------------------
A. Synoptic History
-------------------
A tropical LOW first became apparent in a position to the northeast
of the tip of the Cape York Peninsula (Queensland, Australia) late on
19 January 2005. The LOW moved south-southwestward and overland on
Cape York near Iron Range on 19 January before it could reach cyclone
status. However, despite this, a vigorous monsoonal flow from both
sides of Cape York maintained the depression's LLCC and the system
became a persistent and a clearly-identifiable feature in satellite
imagery for several days to come.
Despite being over land, infrared and water vapor imagery depicted
a small region of cycling convection located primarily along the
southern periphery of the LLCC. An upper-level analysis revealed
that the LLCC was vertically stacked to a subtropical anticyclone and
with low vertical wind shear and good divergence; dynamics were
favourable for rapid development into a cyclone if the system should
move back over water.
Accordingly, RMSC Brisbane issued its first Cyclone WATCH for coastal
and island communities between Mapoon and Gilbert River Mouth on Cape
York Peninsula at 19/0616 UTC as the 1003-hPa tropical LOW, located
approximately 130 km east-southeast of Weipa (13.0S/143.2E), threatened
to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Despite this the LOW maintained an inland path down the middle of
Cape York Peninsula, maintaining its impressive presence on satellite
imagery. However, Cyclone Watches were discontinued at 21/0004 UTC
as it became clear that the LOW, now located near latitude 14.3S/142.6E
(approximately 55 km west-southwest of Coen), would not move into the
Gulf of Carpentaria as earlier predicted.
By 23 January, the main centre was located near Georgetown
(18.3S/143.6E). At this time the LOW became elongated, stretching
towards the northeast coast of Queensland. A large band of heavy rain
developed near Townsville in an area of backing winds with height
(warm air advection) and a new centre rapidly formed in this region
near Lucinda. This centre quickly moved out to sea. (NOTE: The
new and perhaps "multi-centred" hybrid LOW was effectively a
reorganisation of the initial system, and for purposes of this report
is treated as a single system).
The first gale warning was issued for the southern quadrant of the
new 999-hPa LOW "centre" located near 18.5S/147.0E at 23/1600 UTC.
Brisbane also commenced issuing Severe Weather Warnings for the LOW
as it moved to sea in the anticipation that it might intensify
further, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall to the nearby
coastline. However, the LOW never regained its initial tropical
characteristics, and by 25 January was drawn into a developing trough
to the south and accelerated to the southeast, parallel to but well
off the Queensland and northern New South Wales coastlines.
A graphic display of this interesting and unusual system may be
found at the following link:
<http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/AUSTRALI
A/2005_92P_BT.gif>
B. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
Despite not reaching cyclone status, the depression turned into a
killer, bringing heavy rains to the southern tropical coast between
Townsville and Mackay. Two cars collided with a truck near
Yalboroo, south of Proserpine (Queensland) in heavy rain associated
with the depression on 23 January, resulting in two deaths and
injuries to three others. A further rescue was reported in the
Townsville region when a truck driver became stranded on his vehicle.
An unofficial but reliable source reported 642 mm of rain in 24 hours
in a location just to the west of Townsville on 23 January. Falls of
up to 200 mm were widespread in this region.
Lifeguard authorities in the Sydney region reported five drownings
between Newcastle and Wollongong as the remnant LLCC of the tropical
LOW intensified as a mid-latitude depression off the New South Wales
coast over the following weekend (29-30 January), developing a long
fetch of gales between it and a high-pressure system located near New
Zealand.
C. Rainfall Observations
------------------------
Following are some rainfall observations compiled and sent by
Huang Chunliang:
Only daily amounts >= 100 mm listed:
CAIRNS AERO (WMO94287 16.9S/145.8E) 106.6 mm [19/00-20/00Z]
CARDWELL (WMO94292 18.3S/146.0E) 103.2 mm [19/00-20/00Z]
CAIRNS AERO (WMO94287 16.9S/145.8E) 132.2 mm [21/00-22/00Z]
INGHAM COMPOSITE (WMO95291 18.7S/146.2E) 143.8 mm [22/00-23/00Z]
CHARTERS TOWERS AIRPORT (-------- 20.0S/146.3E) 129.0 mm [22/00-23/00Z]
AYR DPI RESEARCH STATION (WMO95295 19.6S/147.4E) 113.6 mm [22/00-23/00Z]
GEORGETOWN POST OFFICE (WMO94275 18.3S/143.6E) 106.0 mm [22/00-23/00Z]
HAMILTON ISLAND AIRPORT (WMO94368 20.4S/149.0E) 266.0 mm [23/00-24/00Z]
PROSERPINE AIRPORT (-------- 20.5S/148.5E) 190.8 mm [23/00-24/00Z]
AYR ALVA BEACH (-------- 19.5S/147.5E) 145.2 mm [23/00-24/00Z]
MACKAY MO (WMO94367 21.1S/149.2E) 136.0 mm [23/00-24/00Z]
AYR DPI RESEARCH STATION (WMO95295 19.6S/147.4E) 116.8 mm [23/00-24/00Z]
CHARTERS TOWERS AIRPORT (-------- 20.0S/146.3E) 101.2 mm [23/00-24/00Z]
AYR DPI RESEARCH STATION (WMO95295 19.6S/147.4E) 143.4 mm [24/00-25/00Z]
INGHAM COMPOSITE (WMO95291 18.67/146.2E) 115.6 mm [25/00-26/00Z]
(Report written by Simon Clarke with contributions by Huang Chunliang)
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for January: 1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity **
1 tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity
** - No warnings were issued on this system by JTWC
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
South Pacific tropical cyclones are the warnings and advisories
issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji (for
waters north of latitude 25S), and Wellington, New Zealand (for
waters south of latitude 25S). References to sustained winds imply
a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Southern Hemisphere
centres' coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings
are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information
describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation
features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC
warnings.
South Pacific Tropical Activity for January
-------------------------------------------
Two tropical cyclones sprang to life in the South Pacific during
January. Tropical Cyclone Kerry moved through the islands of Vanuatu
early in the month as a fairly weak cyclone, then strengthened to
hurricane intensity as it neared the boundary with the Australian Region
(160E). Warning responsibility was handed over to Brisbane, and the
remainder of Kerry's life for the most part was spent just inside the
Australian Region as it trekked southward. The other South Pacific
cyclone was the short-lived, weak Tropical Cyclone Lola, which formed
at the end of the month and continued for a few days into February.
Lola did cause significant agricultural losses on some of the islands
in the Kingdom of Tonga. Reports on both Kerry and Lola, authored
by Simon Clarke, follow.
TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY
(TD-05F / TC-08P)
3 - 15 January
------------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
Kerry was first identified as a westward-moving depression (TD-05F)
to the north of Fiji as early as 3 January 2005. At this time the
relatively disorganized cloud mass was located in a favourable
environment for further development. Environmental shear was weak and
SSTs were 30 C. A 250-hPa prognosis indicated that the subtropical
ridge, located just north of TD-05F, was drifting south maintaining low
shear and diffluence in the vicinity of TD-05F. By 3 January convection
mushroomed close to the low-level circulation and the outlook for the
depression to develop further was upgraded to moderate/good by RSMC Fiji.
The island of Funafuti (WMO 91643, 8.5S/179.2E), to the north and east
of the developing system, picked up 193.8 mm of rain between 03/0000 and
04/0000 UTC. (This information from Huang Chunliang.)
The improving trend continued with banding features becoming apparent
on satellite imagery, and the first gale warning was issued early on
4 January 2005. Despite a minor short-lived hiccup in development
involving displacement of the LLCC to the north of the main CDO, the
depression was upgraded to cyclone status at 05/1800 UTC as overall
organization improved. Newly-named Tropical Cyclone Kerry was located
near 13.3S/171.5E at this time, or about 315 nm northeast of Port Vila,
Vanuatu, and was moving southwest at about 11 knots. Maximum 10-minute
average winds near the centre were estimated to be about 40 kts.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Despite forecasts of intensification, Kerry remained weak while
moving to the southwest and then west-southwest as middle-level dry
air was drawn into the northern semicircle, suppressing deep convection
around the CDO. Tropical Cyclone Kerry picked up forward speed as it
approached Vanuatu, crossing the central part of the island nation
between 06/1800 UTC and 07/0000 UTC. Interaction with the larger
islands also assisted in keeping Kerry weak (10-min max winds of 40
kts). During its passage through Vanuatu, the centre crossed over
Pentecost Island, passed to the north of Ambrym and exited via
Malakula. Approximately 4 hours of heavy rains and gusty winds were
reported during the morning by a weather observer in Ambae just to
the north of where the cyclone crossed with little damage other than
shredded leaves and branches. This was typical of the reports of the
minor damage reported through the affected islands during Kerry's
passage and is not surprising given the intensity and speed of the
tropical cyclone. There were no reported casualties.
Once clear of Vanuatu, Kerry continued to move west-southwestward at
a steady 20-kt pace driven along the northern side of a deep subtropical
ridge. The process of intensification commenced as it moved west and
closer to the upper-level ridge axis, the centre passing close to the
Isles Surprises (New Caledonia territory). By 07/1200 UTC, Kerry was a
severe tropical cyclone near 17.8S/163.6E, or approximately 300 nm
northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. (Editor's Note: Kerry's winds at
this juncture had reached 50 kts--a severe tropical 'storm' by the
classification system applied by MFR and JMA. However, a 'severe
tropical cyclone' per Australian nomenclature is a cyclone of hurricane
intensity.)
The system's organisation continued to improve with a cloud-filled
eye evident at times. Kerry's westerly motion slowed down in response
to a low-level ridge building to its southwest. At this time there was
considerable divergence in the available models regarding future movement
with some predicting a turn to the west or west-northwest, north of the
low-level ridge located to the south, and other models suggesting
recurvature ahead of an upper-level trough.
At 08/0600 UTC and near 18.3S/160.0E Severe Tropical Cyclone Kerry
moved into Brisbane's AOR. Peak intensity of 970 hPa and maximum 10-min
avg winds of 75 kts were attained near 18.3S/159.3E at 09/1800 UTC, the
centre then being located roughly 475 nm northwest of Noumea. Peak
intensity was maintained for thirty hours as Kerry commenced a slow
track to the south-southeast, progressively weakening under a combination
of strong vertical wind shear associated with an approaching upper-level
trough and entrainment of drier, cooler air from the southwest. A strong
surface ridge eventually pushed a considerably-weakened Kerry to the
west-southwest on 13 January 2005 toward Australia's south Queensland
coastline. By this stage, the upper-level structure of the cyclone had
been completely disrupted due to strong vertical wind shear with the
LLCC exposed. Kerry lost cyclone status near 24.5S/159.3E, or about
400 nm east-northeast of Brisbane, at 13/1800 UTC.
JTWC's estimated peak 1-min avg MSW of 90 kts is in reasonably close
agreement with Brisbane's 10-min avg peak MSW of 75 kts.
The remaining exposed LLCC of ex-Kerry proved to be a remarkably
resilient feature, moving southward approximately 80 nm off the southern
Queensland coast only to be pushed northwards again several days later.
The LLCC was still evident in high resolution visible satellite imagery
on 20 January, a week after losing tropical cyclone status. It
eventually washed out completely to the east of Queensland's Sunshine
Coast (near 25.5S/157.0E).
Kerry's main influence on Queensland's weather was to strengthen
winds along the coastline with the assistance of the strong ridge
extending from the high-pressure system to the south. Heavy rains were
reported in the Proserpine region on Queensland's central coast on
9 January. Strong winds and associated rough seas along the coast forced
the closure of many beaches on the Sunshine and Gold Coasts during the
busy school holiday period. However, rainfall totals along the southern
part of the Queensland coast were not particularly significant.
A satellite image of Kerry can be found at:
<http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img
_id=12665>
with further images showing the path of Kerry across the Coral Sea here:
<http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/index.cgi?page=products&category=Year%2020
05%20Storm%20Events&event=Tropical%20Cyclone%20Kerry>
A graphic displaying the track of Severe Tropical Cyclone Kerry may
be found at the following link:
<http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/PACIFIC_
FIJI/2005_05F_04U-08P-KERRY_BT.gif>
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
As noted above, minor damage was incurred when Tropical Cyclone Kerry
moved through the islands of the Republic of Vanuatu. There were no
other reports of damage associated with this cyclone. Also, fortunately
there were no reported casualties.
(Report written by Simon Clarke)
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA
(TD-06F)
26 January - 2 February
-------------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
Lola was the third tropical cyclone of the season to form in the
Southwest Pacific for the 2004/05 season. The storm was first
identified as a tropical disturbance (TD-06F) in the intertropical
convergence zone near the islands of Vanuatu on 27 January 2005. The
depression's LLCC was detached from the convection, making its centre
difficult to locate. However, banding was already evident detached
from the LLCC in its northern and eastern quadrants.
The LLCC moved steadily toward the east at 5 kts into an improving
environment of active surface convergence, good upper-level diffluence
at 250 hPa, and decreasing westerly shear. Also, SSTs were high
(approximately 30 C).
On its approach to the northern islands of Fiji, TD-06F accelerated
and commenced a southeastward motion of 15 kts, passing over Vanua
Levu in Fiji's Northern Division on 30 January. An area of gales
moved with the depression and rough seas were reported. However,
there was no significant damage associated with TD-06F in Fiji.
At this time, TD-06F exhibited an asymmetrical shape and most global
models had little faith in developing TD-06F further. However, by
31/1400 UTC the previously exposed LLCC had slipped underneath the
developing CDO. With a CP estimated at 992 hPa, TD-06F was upgraded
to cyclone status near 21.8S/176.8W and named Lola. This location is
also approximately 100 nm west-southwest of Tongatapu.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Tropical Cyclone Lola continued to track to the southeast with slight
intensification (minimum CP of 990 hPa and peak 10-min avg winds of
40 kts). However, dry air intrusion from the southwest quadrant and
strong westerly winds aloft hindered any further development and the
LLCC was soon re-exposed.
Lola was downgraded at 02/0000 UTC near 25.2S/176.6W, or about 250 nm
south-southwest of Tongatapu. This position represents a relocation of
over 100 nm westward from the previous warning position. The remnant
depression slowed down in response to the ridge of high pressure to the
south and persisted as a westward-moving and fully-exposed depression
for several days.
A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Cyclone Lola may be found
at the following link:
<http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/PACIFIC_
FIJI/2005_06F_LOLA_BT.gif>
C. Damage and Casualties
-------------------------
Lola brought strong winds to parts of central and southern Tonga.
Squally winds and localised heavy rains were reported from Ha'apai,
Nomuka and Tongatapu Group, but there were no reports of significant
structural damage. However, significant crop losses were reported
with heavy windfalls of fruit, especially of mangoes, tava, breadfruit,
avocados and bananas. Tongatapu, reported as having its first bumper
crop mango season since 1998, was left with "carpets of mangoes" under
the trees.
Lola's life was short and relatively inconsequential. In fact, the
JTWC did not recognise Lola as a tropical cyclone in spite of warnings
issued by RSMC Fiji.
(Report written by Simon Clarke)
*************************************************************************
SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers
will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
I wanted to include them.
(1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
---------------------------------------
Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
retrieved from the following FTP site:
<ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>
Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
messages may be found at the following URL:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>
Links are also included to websites with further information about the
U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
craft Operations Center.
(2) Archived Advisories
-----------------------
All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an
example), the archived products can be found at:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>
Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
the following URL:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>
JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterry website:
<http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen.
I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.
(3) Satellite Imagery
---------------------
Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The
links are:
<http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
<http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is
located in the lower left portion of the screen.
I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.
*************************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
to send them a copy.
*************************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
these via e-mail, please send me a message.)
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris
Landsea, and John Diebolt):
<http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
<http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
<http://mpittweather.com>
<ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
<http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/>
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
<http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone>
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
Report (ATCR) for 2004 (2003-2004 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
ATCRs for earlier years are available also.
The URL is: <http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 2004 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2004 Atlantic
and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.
The URL is: <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.
PREPARED BY
Gary Padgett
E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com
Phone: 334-222-5327
Kevin Boyle (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
China Sea)
E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com
John Wallace (Assistance with Eastern North Pacific)
E-mail: dosidicus@aol.com
Huang Chunliang (Assistance with Western Northwest Pacific, South
China Sea)
E-mail: huangchunliang@hotmail.com
Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
E-mail: saclarke@iprimus.com.au
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
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