MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
OCTOBER, 2005
Second Installment
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
NOTE: The October summary will be issued in two installments. The first
will cover the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, while the second
will cover the remaining tropical cyclone basins.
*************************************************************************
OCTOBER HIGHLIGHTS
--> Extremely active Atlantic with six storms--four hurricanes
--> Record low Atlantic barometric pressure recorded
--> Devastating hurricane strikes Yucatan Peninsula and southern Florida
--> Hundreds of deaths in Mexico and Central America from tropical
cyclone-induced and monsoon rains
--> Western North Pacific quieter--two typhoons and neither destructive
*************************************************************************
********** EXTRA FEATURE **********
2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES
TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN
Beginning in 2000 tropical storms and typhoons forming in the North
Pacific west of the Dateline are assigned names by JMA taken from a
new list of Asian names contributed by fourteen nations and territories
from the western Pacific and eastern Asia. Names are not allocated
in alphabetical order and the majority are not personal names--instead
names of animals, plants, fictional characters, descriptive adjectives,
places--even foods--are utilized. The entire list consists of 140
names and all names will be used before any are repeated. The last
name assigned in 2005 was Bolaven in November. As of 11 March no
tropical cyclones have been named in 2006.
The next 36 names on the list are (** indicates name has already
been assigned in 2006):
Chanchu Wukong Chebi Pabuk
Jelawat Sonamu Durian Wutip
Ewiniar Shanshan Utor Sepat
Bilis Yagi Trami Fitow
Kaemi Xangsane Kong-rey Danas
Prapiroon Bebinca Yutu Nari
Maria Rumbia Toraji Wipha
Saomai Soulik Man-yi Francisco
Bopha Cimaron Usagi Lekima
Since 1963 PAGASA has independently named tropical cyclones forming
in the Philippines' AOR--from 115E to 135E and from 5N to 25N (except
for a portion of the northwestern corner of the above region). Even
though the Philippines contributed ten names to the international list
of typhoon names, PAGASA still continues to assign their own names for
local use within the Philippines. It is felt that familiar names are
more easily remembered in the rural areas and that having a PAGASA-
assigned name helps to underscore the fact that the cyclone is within
PAGASA's AOR and potentially a threat to the Philippines. Another
consideration may be PAGASA's desire to assign a name when a system is
first classified as a tropical depression. Since tropical and/or
monsoon depressions can bring very heavy rainfall to the nation which
often results in disastrous flooding, the weather service feels that
assigning a name helps to enhance public attention given to a system.
Beginning with 2001 PAGASA began using new sets of cyclone names.
These do not all end in "ng" as did the older names. Four sets of 25
names will be rotated annually; thus, the set for 2006 will be re-used
in 2010. In case more than 25 systems are named in one season, an
auxiliary set will be used. PAGASA names for 2006 are (** indicates
name has already been assigned in 2006):
Agaton ** Juan Reming
Basyang ** Katring Seniang
Caloy Luis Tomas
Domeng Milenyo Usman
Ester Neneng Venus
Florita Ompong Waldo
Gloria Paeng Yayang
Henry Queenie Zeny
Inday
In the unlikely event that the list is exhausted, the following
names would be allocated as needed: Agila, Bagwis, Chito, Diego,
Elena, Felino, Gunding, Harriet, Indang and Jessa.
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN CYCLONE NAMES
After several years of planning and working out implementation
details, the RSMC for the North Indian Ocean basin--the Indian
Meteorological Department--began naming tropical cyclones in that
region on an experimental basis in the autumn of 2004.
The procedure for allocating names is similar to that used in the
Northwest Pacific basin. All the member nations--eight in this case--
submitted eight names each. The 64 names were arranged in eight
columns of eight names, ordered by the contributing nations in alpha-
betical order, just as is done in the Northwest Pacific. Potential
cyclonic storms for 2006 include (** indicates name has already been
assigned):
Mala Gonu Abe
Mukda Yemyin Khai Muk
Ogni Sidr Nisha
Akash Nargis Bijli
*************************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for October: 1 tropical depression
1 subtropical depression
2 tropical storms
2 hurricanes
2 intense hurricanes
NOTE!!! The Atlantic basin was covered in the first installment of the
October summary.
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for October: 1 tropical depression
1 hurricane **
** - storm formed in September and was covered in the September summary
NOTE!!! The Northeast Pacific basin was covered in the first installment
of the October summary.
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for October: 3 tropical depressions **
3 typhoons ++
** - only one of these was treated as a tropical depression by JTWC
++ - one of these formed in September and was covered in the September
summary
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion
tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All
references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
unless otherwise noted.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA).
In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the
JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
area of warning responsibility.
Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for October
-----------------------------------------------
The Northwest Pacific basin was much quieter in October than during
the preceding two months. Only two tropical storms were named, compared
with five in September. Typhoon Kirogi occupied a considerable chunk
of October, forming during the second week roughly midway between the
northernmost Mariana Islands and Okinawa. Kirogi moved slowly and
erratically for several days before finally taking off on a persistent
northeasterly track which carried it into North Pacific waters well
south of Japan. The storm was of major intensity, almost becoming
a super typhoon when it peaked at 125 kts to the east of Okinawa.
Typhoon Kai-tak traveled far, forming near Yap and eventually moving
into northern Vietnam. The system crossed the Philippine Archipelago
as a fairly weak depression on the 27th before finally getting its act
together in the central South China Sea. Kai-tak became a respectable
90-kt typhoon off the Vietnamese coast before weakening and moving
northwestward, parallel to the coast. By the time landfall occurred
Kai-tak had weakened into a minimal tropical storm.
Four other systems were tracked during October. As the month opened,
intense Typhoon Longwang was about to make a destructive strike on
Taiwan and the Chinese mainland. During the first week of the month,
weak Tropical Depression 20W formed in the northwestern South China Sea
and moved westward into Vietnam. Only two warnings were issued for this
system by JTWC, although it was carried as a depression for a longer
period by JMA and some of the other warning agencies. Two other tropical
depressions were identified by JMA but were not so classified by JTWC.
One of these was a weak but long-lived system which was first referenced
in JMA's bulletin on 7 October east of the northern Marianas near 20.0N/
148.0E. The depression moved very slowly westward for a few days,
remaining quasi-stationary at times in the vicinity of the Marianas. On
the 12th it began to move northward, becoming slow-moving once more on
the 14th in the subtropics well to the southeast of Japan. The system
turned to the northeast on the 15th and was last mentioned near 35.0N/
150.0E on the 17th. This disturbance was included in JTWC's STWOs for
several days and was given a 'fair' potential for development on the 9th.
This, however, was downgraded to 'poor' on the 10th. (This system's NRL
invest number was 93W.)
Another weak tropical depression was classified by JMA on 10 October
near 25.0N/152.0E, or several hundred miles east-northeast of the
Marianas. This system was tracked generally northward for the next
couple of days, being finally mentioned near 31.0N/152.0E at 10/1200 UTC.
This system also was referenced in JTWC's STWOs but was given only a
'poor' development potential. No tracks for these weaker depressions
were included in the accompanying global tropical cyclone tracks file.
(This second weak depression's NRL invest number was 94W.)
Reports follow for Typhoons Kirogi and Kai-tak. The complete report
on Super Typhoon Longwang may be found in the September summary. A
graphic depicting the track of short-lived Tropical Depression 20W may
be found at the following link:
<http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2005/w_pacific/BT-IMAGES/2005-2
0W-NONAME.gif>
TYPHOON KIROGI
(TC-21W / TY 0520 / NANDO)
9 - 20 October
---------------------------------------------
Kirogi: submitted by North Korea, is the name of a migrating bird,
the wild goose
A. Introduction and Storm Origins
----------------------------------
Typhoon Kirogi was an intense tropical cyclone that spent its entire
life over the open waters of the Northwest Pacific. Wedged into a col
region between two HIGHs, slow movement was a feature of this system.
Kirogi spent almost a week between the latitudes of 20N and 25N before
finally accelerating northeastwards and becoming extratropical
southeast of Japan.
The disturbance that spawned Kirogi was first mentioned as a
persistent area of convection in JTWC's STWO at 1130 UTC 9 October,
located approximately 260 nm west-southwest of the Japanese island of
Iwo Jima. Animated satellite imagery indicated cycling convection
north of a partially-exposed LLCC. An upper-level analysis revealed
low to moderate wind shear, favourable diffluence aloft and increasing
850-mb vorticity. A TCFA was issued at 09/2330 UTC based on alignment
of the deep convection with the LLCC. The first warning on Tropical
Depression 21W was released at 10/0600 UTC, the centre located nearly
400 nm southeast of Okinawa, Japan. At this time, JMA upgraded their
MSW estimate to 35 kts and assigned the name Kirogi. PAGASA had
already named the cyclone Nando after it entered their AOR early on
10 October. Kirogi rapidly organized and became a 35-kt tropical storm
(per JTWC) at 10/1800 UTC. Movement was slow and towards the south at
5 kts.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Kirogi quickly strengthened and became a 75-kt typhoon at 1200 UTC
11 October, located approximately 430 nm southeast of Okinawa. A mid-
level steering ridge centred over southeastern China continued to
impart a southward steering influence through 11 October. A passing
mid-latitude trough to the north and enhanced poleward outflow into a
TUTT centred to the east aided further rapid intensification and Kirogi
reached its first maximum of 115 kts at 12/0600 UTC while turning onto
a very slow northward track. The tropical cyclone remained on this
heading, under the competing steering influences of two mid-level
ridges for the next three days. A weakening phase began late on
12 October as a result of increasing shear and entrainment of a drier
and more stable airmass from eastern Asia. However, the intensity
levelled off and Kirogi maintained a MSW of 90-95 kt through
13-14 October.
At 0000 UTC 15 October Typhoon Kirogi was located approximately
260 nm southeast of Okinawa and was crawling north-northeastwards at
2 kts. The MSW had been nudged up a little to 100 kts and this
intensity was maintained on 15 October. As the mid-level ridge over
southeast Asia began to weaken in response to an approaching longwave
trough, Kirogi began to accelerate, first on a east-northeasterly
heading, then onto a northeastward track early on 16 October. The storm
strengthened one last time and reached its overall peak intensity of
125 kts at 16/0600 UTC while centred approximately 440 nm west of Iwo
Jima, Japan. Turning north-northeastward, Typhoon Kirogi began to
weaken late on 16 October as it became further embedded within the
steering flow of the longwave trough. Accelerating further, the system
turned back onto a northeasterly heading. After a marked reduction in
the deep convection and disappearance of the eye, Kirogi was downgraded
to a 55-kt tropical storm at 18/1800 UTC while passing about 180 nm
south-southeast of Tokyo. It was declared extratropical and the final
JTWC warning issued six hours later. JMA maintained Kirogi as a
tropical cyclone until 19/0600 UTC, at which time that agency also
issued their final warning. The remnant extratropical gale remained
quasi-stationary for another day or so east of Honshu while weakening.
NMCC estimated a peak intensity of 100 kts while JMA classified
Kirogi as a Very Severe Typhoon, estimating a maximum intensity of
90 kts (10-min avg) and a CP of 935 mb. PAGASA and the CWB of Taiwan
also estimated peak intensities of 90 kts (10-min avg).
A graphic depicting the track of Typhoon Kirogi/Nando may be found
at the following link:
<http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2005/w_pacific/BT-IMAGES/2005-2
1W-KIROGI.gif>
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
There were no reported damage or casualties associated with Typhoon
Kirogi.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
TYPHOON KAI-TAK
(TC-22W / TY 0521)
25 October - 2 November
-------------------------------------------
Kai-tak: contributed by Hong Kong, is the name of an old airport which
was closed in 1998
A. Introduction and Storm Origins
---------------------------------
Typhoon Kai-tak was first noted in JTWC's STWO as a persistent area
of convection at 2300 UTC 27 October, located approximately 230 nm
west-southwest of Manila, Philippines. Both animated infrared
satellite imagery and a 27/1753 UTC AMSR-E pass depicted improving
convection over a possible LLCC. An upper-level analysis indicated weak
wind shear and moderate outflow. Development continued under the
favourable environmental conditions and a TCFA was issued at 28/0930
UTC. The first warning on Tropical Depression 22W was issued at
28/1800 UTC, locating the centre approximately 410 nm east-southeast of
Hue, Vietnam. (Editor's Note: JMA initially upgraded this disturbance
to a weak tropical depression on 25 October while located near 9.0N/
138.0E--well east of the southern Philippines. After 12 hours it was
downgraded to a low-pressure area and subsequently tracked westward
across the southern Philippines into the South China Sea, where it was
resurrected as a tropical depression at 0600 UTC on 28 October.)
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Moving westward at 8 kts, Tropical Depression 22W was upgraded to a
35-kt tropical storm at 0000 UTC 29 October, centred approximately
400 nm southeast of Hue, Vietnam. Six hours later, it was named Kai-tak
when JMA raised their 10-min avg MSW to 35 kts. The system was heading
into a weak steering environment between two ridges and this caused the
tropical cyclone to decelerate on 29 October. Strengthening continued,
and Kai-tak was upgraded to a 65-kt typhoon at 0000 UTC 30 October
while located approximately 340 nm east-southeast of Hue, Vietnam.
After moving erratically northwards on 30 October, Kai-tak turned onto
a predominantly northwestward track and reached a peak intensity of
90 kts at 30/1200 UTC.
Steering currents strengthened as a mid-level ridge to the northeast
intensified, and this synoptic feature was to guide Typhoon Kai-tak on
an accelerating northwestward path towards its eventual landfall in
Vietnam. The storm began to weaken on 31 October as it headed
northwestward into a less favourable environment. Kai-tak was
downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm at 1800 UTC 1 November. The
tropical cyclone continued northwestwards, paralleling the Vietnamese
coastline and came ashore with a MSW estimated at 45 kts at 02/0600
UTC approximately 125 nm south of Hanoi, Vietnam. Both JTWC and JMA
issued their respective final warnings at 02/1200 UTC as the system was
dissipating over Vietnam.
All Asian agencies estimated a peak MSW value of 80-kts (10-min avg)
and JMA estimated a minimum CP of 950 mb.
A graphic depicting the track of Typhoon Kai-tak may be found at the
following link:
<http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2005/w_pacific/BT-IMAGES/2005-2
2W-KAI-TAK.gif>
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
At least 20 people were known to have died after Tropical Storm
Kai-tak made landfall in Vietnam. Heavy rains destroyed thousands of
hectares of farmland in 10 provinces and disrupted transportation,
submerging a section of the north-south railway. About 18,000 people
were evacuated from their homes.
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for October: 2 tropical cyclones **
** - both of these were classified as minimal tropical storms by JTWC.
One was treated as a deep depression by IMD, the other was never
classified as a depression by that agency.
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some
information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks
and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department
(IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin.
The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute
averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic
observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied. In the North Indian Ocean
basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has
become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status
within 48 hours.
North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for October
------------------------------------------------
Two tropical cyclones formed in the North Indian Ocean during October.
Both were treated as minimal tropical storms by JTWC, but neither was
named as a cyclonic storm by IMD. Tropical Cyclone 03B formed very early
in the month just off the northeastern Indian coastline and moved north-
northeastward and inland near Calcutta. This system was not classified
as even a depression by IMD. Tropical Cyclone 04B formed during the
final week of the month to the northeast of Sri Lanka and moved inland
in southeast India. This system was treated as a deep depression by
RSMC New Delhi. Short reports follow on both these tropical cyclones.
TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TC-03B)
2 - 3 October
------------------------------------
Tropical Cyclone 03B was a short-lived minimal tropical storm which
formed just off the eastern coast of India a few hundred miles south-
west of Calcutta. A STWO issued by JTWC at 0900 UTC on 1 October
mentioned that an area of convection had persisted about 325 nm south-
southwest of Calcutta with an associated LLCC. The disturbance was
situated under moderate vertical wind shear and favorable equatorward
divergence. The potential for development was upgraded to 'fair' at
01/1900 UTC after animated satellite imagery revealed convection
beginning to build over the well-defined LLCC. Surface winds at this
time were estimated at 20-25 kts, and the first warning on TC-03B was
issued at 0600 UTC on 2 October, placing the center approximately
225 nm southwest of Calcutta and moving north-northeastward at 4 kts.
The initial warning intensity was set at 35 kts, which proved to be
the peak intensity for this short-lived cyclone. The intensity was
also supported by Dvorak ratings of T2.5 from SAB.
The tropical cyclone continued moving north-northeastward just off
the eastern coastline of India. The center of TC-03B moved inland just
south of Calcutta early on 3 October (UTC) and the final JTWC warning
was issued at 0600 UTC, placing the center about 20 nm south of Calcutta.
To the author's knowledge, this system was never classified even as a
depression by the IMD, just the opposite of Cyclonic Storm Pyarr in
September which was never classified as a tropical cyclone by JTWC.
A graphic depicting the track of Tropical Cyclone 03B may be found at
the following link:
<http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2005/indian/BT-IMAGES/2005-03B-
NONAME.gif>
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
Cyclone 03B.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TC-04B)
26 - 28 October
------------------------------------
Like Tropical Cyclone 03B early in the month, Tropical Cyclone 04B
was another system treated as a tropical storm by JTWC but not by IMD.
However, in this case the IMD did classify the system as a deep
depression, implying winds of 30 kts. A STWO issued by JTWC at 0700
UTC on 25 October noted than an area of convection had persisted almost
400 nm east of Madras, India, and was associated with a well-defined
LLCC. The disturbance was located under low to moderate vertical shear
with a good westerly outflow channel. Maximum winds at the time were
estimated at 20-25 kts. The potential for development was upped to
'fair' at 1800 UTC on 26 October after a 26/1153 UTC TRMM pass had
revealed consolidating deep convection over the LLCC. The system at
this time was located a little less than 200 nm east-southeast of
Madras, and IMD had by this time classified the system as a depression.
The system continued moving westward toward the Indian coast as it
gradually increased in organization. IMD upgraded it to deep depression
status on the 27th, and JTWC issued a TCFA at 27/0100 UTC. The center
was then located only about 50 nm southeast of Madras with maximum winds
estimated in the range of 30 to 35 kts and moving west-northwestward
at 12 kts. However, the westerly motion halted and the depression
turned northward. The first JTWC warning on Tropical Cyclone 04B was
issued at 27/1800 UTC and placed the center about 120 nm northeast of
Madras and tracking northward at 5 kts. The MSW was estimated at 35 kts
and a 27/1645 UTC AMSU pass indicated strong convection decoupled to
the west of the well-organized LLCC.
TC-04B turned more to the northwest and later west-northwest on the
28th of October and made landfall around Ongole, India, around 1200 UTC.
The peak intensity estimated by JTWC was 35 kts, but Dvorak estimates
from SAB supported an intensity of 45 kts from around 1500 UTC on the
27th until landfall. The IMD continued tracking the remnants of TC-04B
inland over South Andhra State through 29/1200 UTC.
A graphic depicting the track of Tropical Cyclone 04B may be found at
the following link:
<http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2005/indian/BT-IMAGES/2005-04B-
NONAME.gif>
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
Cyclone 04B.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for October: 1 tropical depression
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
for the basin. However, tropical cyclones in this region are named
by the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres in Mauritius and
Madagascar with longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their
respective areas of naming responsibility. The La Reunion centre only
advises these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems.
References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless
otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.
Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for October
----------------------------------------------------
One tropical system was tracked in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin
during the month of October. Forming on the 12th very deep in the
tropics far to the east of Diego Garcia, Tropical Depression 02 (per
MFR's warnings) moved for a few days on a southwesterly track before
weakening on the 15th. The system was treated as a 30-kt tropical
depression by MFR, but was upgraded to a minimal tropical storm (TC-01S)
in JTWC's warnings. A short report on this system follows.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
(MFR-02 / TC-01S)
12 - 15 October
---------------------------------------
The second numbered tropical disturbance (per MFR) of the 2005-2006
season in the Southwest Indian Ocean had its origins deep in the tropics
on 12 October about 725 nm northwest of the Cocos Islands and about
850 nm east of Diego Garcia. MFR initiated bulletins on Tropical
Disturbance 02 at 0600 UTC, and later that day JTWC mentioned in a
STWO that the exposed LLCC was accompanied by cycling convection. The
system began to move southwestward, a heading that would continue
throughout its lifetime. Peak winds near the center were estimated
at 25 kts with winds locally reaching 30 kts in the southern semicircle.
The disturbance changed little in intensity on 13 October, but early on
the 14th began to show signs of strengthening. JTWC issued a TCFA at
14/0130 UTC, upgrading the potential for development to 'good'. Deep
convection was persisting near the LLCC and the system had moved under
a narrow axis of low vertical shear with favorable anticyclonic outflow.
At 14/0600 UTC MFR upgraded the disturbance to tropical depression
status with 30-kt winds. Winds up to and exceeding gale force were
forecast in isolated spots well south of the center. JTWC initiated
warnings on the system as TC-01S at 14/1200 UTC, estimating the 1-min
avg MSW at 35 kts.
The tropical depression continued moving southwestward on 15 October
into an unfavorable environment of cooler SSTs and increasing vertical
shear. At 15/1800 UTC MFR lowered the central MSW to 25 kts and issued
their final warning on the system, placing the center approximately
575 nm southeast of Diego Garcia. This was also the time of JTWC's
final warning on TC-01S. The peak 1-min avg MSW per JTWC's warnings
was 35 kts, although satellite intensity estimates from SAB were at
45 kts on the 14th and early on the 15th. (NOTE: MFR restricts the
term "tropical depression" to systems with a 10-min avg MSW of 30 kts,
equal to a Dvorak rating of T2.5 and equivalent to IMD's "deep
depression" classification.)
A graphic depicting the track of Tropical Depression 02 (TC-01S) may
be found at the following link:
<http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2006/SOHEM/BT-IMAGES/2005-01S-0
2R-NONAME.gif>
No damage or casualties resulted from this tropical depression.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E
Activity for October: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E
Activity for October: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for October: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers
will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
I wanted to include them.
(1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
---------------------------------------
Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
retrieved from the following FTP site:
<ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>
Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
messages may be found at the following URL:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>
Links are also included to websites with further information about the
U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
craft Operations Center.
(2) Archived Advisories
-----------------------
All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an
example), the archived products can be found at:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>
Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
the following URL:
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>
JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterry website:
<http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen.
I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.
(3) Satellite Imagery
---------------------
Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The
links are:
<http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
<http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is
located in the lower left portion of the screen.
Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for
composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the
equator, can be found at:
(1) For the Eastern North Pacific:
<http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html>
(2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:
<http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html>
I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.
*************************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
to send them a copy.
*************************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
these via e-mail, please send me a message.)
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris
Landsea, and John Diebolt):
<http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
<http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
<http://mpittweather.com>
<ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
<http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/>
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
<http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone>
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
Report (ATCR) for 2004 (2003-2004 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
ATCRs for earlier years are available also.
The URL is: <http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 2004 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2004 Atlantic
and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.
The URL is: <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.
PREPARED BY
Gary Padgett
E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com
Phone: 334-222-5327
Kevin Boyle (Northwest Pacific)
E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com
Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
E-mail: saclarke@iprimus.com.au
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
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