SUMMARY: September TC Summary - Part 2

From: Gary Padgett (garyp@ALAWEB.COM)
Date: Mon Nov 27 2006 - 08:05:03 EST


                   MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY

 

                              SEPTEMBER, 2006

                             Second Installment

 

  SPECIAL NOTE: The September summary is being issued in three

  installments. The first covered the Atlantic basin, and the third will

  cover the Northwest Pacific basin. This installment covers the North-

  east Pacific and North Indian Ocean basins plus contains an extra

  feature.

 

  NOTE FROM THE AUTHOR: Almost two years ago I began including links to

  track graphics prepared by John Diebolt of Tucson, Arizona, and archived

  on his tropical cyclone website. A few months back John experienced a

  disk crash which resulted in a error. He had to request assistance from

  the programmer who had written the map-generation software, but so far

  has not been able to get the problem solved. As a convenience to users,

  I've also recently been including links to the individual tabular tracks,

  prepared by myself, which John had archived on his website. Now, due to

  family concerns, John has not had time to place the tracks for recent

  cyclones on the website. I have checked the websites listed at the end

  of the summaries and found that the entire September track file has been

  archived on two of them. The links are:

 

  http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/2007/trak0609.htm

 

  http://www.typhoon2000.ph/garyp_mgtcs/sep06tks.txt

 

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as

  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see

  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

 

  *************************************************************************

 

                            SEPTEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

 

   --> Atlantic more active--four hurricanes form but all recurve well out

       in Atlantic--Bermuda, Newfoundland, Azores, Spain, Ireland and

       Great Britain experience some effects

   --> Major hurricane strikes mainland Mexico

   --> Intense typhoon slashes through central Phlippines while another

       strikes Ryukyus

   --> Strong Arabian Sea tropical storm forms just off western Indian

       coast

 

  *************************************************************************

 

                    !!!!!!!!!! EXTRA FEATURE !!!!!!!!!!

                        

                 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES

                            2006 - 2007 SEASON

                            

              TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the AUSTRALIAN REGION

                          

     The Australian Bureau of Meteorology maintains three Tropical

  Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWC): Perth, Western Australia; Darwin,

  Northern Territory; and Brisbane, Queensland. Each centre is allotted

  a separate list of tropical cyclone names for tropical cyclones forming

  within its area of responsibility (AOR). In addition a TCWC located at

  Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea (PNG)--a former Australian territory--

  maintains a list of native names to assign to the very rare tropical

  cyclones which form within its AOR.

 

     The AORs of the respective centres are:

 

  (1) Perth - 125E westward to 90E and south of 10S. Currently, and for

      at least the next few years, the Perth TCWC will issue warnings for

      any systems north of 10S and south and west of the Indonesian islands.

 

  (2) Darwin - 125E eastward to 138E and extending northward to the

      equator. There is a little irregularity with the eastern border

      in the Gulf of Carpentaria. The Darwin TCWC issues High Seas

      Warnings for the entire Gulf of Carpentaria, but Brisbane issues

      Tropical Cyclone Advices and names cyclones in the eastern portion

      of the Gulf. Also, currently, and for at least the next few years,

      the Darwin TCWC will issue warnings for any systems west of 125E

      and within the Indonesian archipelago in the Banda, Flores, and

      Java Seas.

 

  (3) Brisbane - 138E eastward to 160E and generally south of 10S. The

      northern border with the Port Moresby AOR is somewhat irregular.

 

  (4) Port Moresby, PNG - immediate vicinity of the island of New Guinea

      and eastward to 160E generally north of 10S although the southern

      border is somewhat irregular.

 

     Names for the 2006-2007 season (** indicates name has already been

  assigned):

 

          Perth Darwin Brisbane Port Moresby

  -----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

         Isobel George Nelson Alu

         Jacob Helen Odette Buri

         Kara Ira Pierre Dodo

         Lee Jasmine Rebecca Emau

         Melanie Kim Sheryl Fere

         Nicholas Laura Tania Guba

         Ophelia Matt Vernon Hibu

         Pancho Narelle Wendy Ila

         Rosie Oswald Alfred Kama

         Selwyn Penny Blanch Lobu

         Tiffany Caleb

         Victor Denise

         Zelia Ernie

         Alison Frances

         Billy Greg

 

 

           TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

                      and the SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN

 

     The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) at Nadi, Fiji, has

  tropical cyclone warning responsibility for the South Pacific east of

  160E and from the equator to 25S. The Meteorological Service of New

  Zealand at Wellington has warning responsibility for waters south of

  25S, but almost all tropical cyclones in this basin form north of 25S.

  When a rare cyclone forms in the Wellington area of responsibility

  (AOR), it usually will be assigned a name from the Fiji list (such as

  was done for Tropical Cyclone Gita in February, 1999.)

 

     Tropical cyclone warning responsibility for South Indian waters west

  of 90E are shared by several TCWCs. The Regional Specialty

  Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the region is the office of Meteo

  France on the island of La Reunion. However, following a long-standing

  practice, the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres at Mauritius

  and Madagascar share the responsibility for actually naming tropical

  storms with Mauritius naming systems east of 55E and Madagascar covering

  the area west of 55E. RSMC La Reunion issues warnings for the basin

  independently of Mauritius and Madagascar, but only advises regarding when

  or when not to assign a name to a developing cyclone.

 

     Names for the 2006-2007 season (** indicates name has already been

  assigned):

 

          Southwest Indian South Pacific

  -----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

     Anita Newa Xavier ** Hettie

     Bondo Olipa Yani ** Innis

     Clovis Panda Zita Joni

     Dora Quincy Arthur Ken

     Enok Rabeca Becky Lin

     Favio Shyra Cliff Mick

     Gamede Tsholo Daman Nisha

     Humba Unokubi Elisa Oli

     Indlada Vuyane Funa Pat

     Jaya Warura Gene Rene

     Katse Xylo

     Lisebo Yone

     Magoma Zouleha

 

  *************************************************************************

  

                             ACTIVITY BY BASINS

 

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

 

  Activity for September: 2 hurricanes

                           2 major hurricanes

 

  NOTE!!! The Atlantic basin was covered in the first installment of the

          September summary.

 

  *************************************************************************

 

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

 

  Activity for September: 2 tropical depressions **

                           1 tropical storm

                           1 major hurricane

 

  ** - both the non-developing tropical depressions formed in the Central

       North Pacific region

 

 

                         Sources of Information

                         ----------------------

 

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the

  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction

  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the

  Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for

  locations west of longitude 140W): discussions, public advisories,

  forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical

  disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have

  been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane

  specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to

  sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise

  noted.

 

 

              Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for September

              -------------------------------------------------

 

     Following are some statistics for the Northeast Pacific basin during

  the month of September:

 

                                     September Average

        Parameter 2006 1971 - 2005

        --------------------------------------------------------

        Named Storms (NS) 2 3.5

        Hurricanes (H) 1 2.2

        Intense Hurricanes (IH) 1 1.1

        Named Storm Days (NSD) 11.25 17.4

        Hurricane Days (HD) 3.75 8.3

        Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) 0.75 2.6

 

 

     The month of September, 2006, was well below normal in the Northeast

  Pacific basin with the overall net tropical cyclone activity (utilizing

  all six parameters) being only about 55% of the average level normally

  seen in September, whereas in August the overall tropical activity had

  been almost 2.5 times the average. The month also was much quieter than

  September, 2005, when the overall net activity had been almost twice

  the average. Interestingly, the Atlantic basin was quiet during August

  when the Northeast Pacific was active, but was well above normal during

  September when the Pacific was well below normal.

 

     Two named storms developed, Hurricane Lane and Tropical Storm Miriam.

  Lane was a small but intense hurricane which formed and remained near

  the Mexican coast and ultimately made landfall near El Dorado as a strong

  Category 3 hurricane--the first major hurricane to strike the West Coast

  of Mexico in four years. Miriam was a short-lived minimal tropical storm

  which formed in an extension of the ITCZ to the west of Lane and never

  affected land. Reports on both Lane and Miriam follow below.

 

     No more tropical cyclones formed east of 140W, but two tropical

  depressions were classified by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in

  Honolulu during the month of September. Tropical Depression 02C formed

  on the 18th about 675 nm south of Honolulu. This system was initially

  forecast to reach hurricane intensity within 48 hours, but this forecast

  failed miserably. TD-02C's winds reached 30 kts at 19/0600 UTC and this

  was the highest for the depression's history. The system was never able

  to completely break away from the ITCZ and unable to develop persistent

  rainbands and central convection. By 20/1200 UTC the low-level center

  had become completely exposed with disorganized convection off to the

  west of the center. Interestingly, some of the models were still

  indicating that TD-02C would strengthen, but given the observed weakening

  trend and the appearance, the intensity was lowered to 25 kts at 1500

  UTC. The depression continued to weaken as it drifted westward and the

  final CPHC advisory, issued at 20/2100 UTC, placed the dissipating center

  about 395 nm southeast of Johnston Island. The remnants of TC-02C

  continued to move westward and eventually brought some heavy rainfall

  to Kwajalein Atoll. Some information on this will be included in Part 3

  of the September summary, covering the Northwest Pacific basin.

 

     Tropical Depression 03C formed on 26 September--the first CPHC

  advisory at 26/2100 UTC placed the center in the far western portion of

  the Central North Pacific region about 585 nm west-southwest of Johnston

  Island. Unlike TD-02C, the initial advisory for this system never called

  for it to reach tropical storm intensity, and in this case the forecast

  verified. This depression was never well-organized and CPHC issued only

  three advisories on the system. The final advisory, issued at 27/0900

  UTC, noted that there was doubt as to whether or not a closed circulation

  existed, and given that the environment was quite hostile with dry mid-

  level air and increasing shear, any remaining circulation would likely

  soon dissipate. At the time of the final CPHC advisory TD-03C was

  about to cross longitude 180, and JMA issued four bulletins on the system

  as a weak tropical depression through 28/0600 UTC.

 

     The online Wikipedia reports for the Eastern Pacific cyclones may

  be accessed at the following URL:

 

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pacific_hurricane_season

 

  A more expanded report is available for Hurricane Lane. The link to

  this is included in the report on Lane below.

 

 

 

                             HURRICANE LANE

                                (TC-13E)

                           13 - 17 September

                 -------------------------------------

 

  A. Introduction

  ---------------

 

     Hurricane Lane was a fairly small but intense tropical cyclone which

  formed and remained within about 100 nm of the Mexican coastline. Lane

  became the first hurricane of Category 3 or higher intensity to strike

  Mexico since the destructive Hurricane Kenna of October, 2002. Kenna

  had peaked at 145 kts--a Category 5 hurricane--before striking the

  coast near the fishing village of San Blas as a 120-kt Category 4

  hurricane. Hurricane Kenna was the last of three Category 5 hurricanes

  which roamed Eastern Pacific waters during the 2002 season, the others

  being Elida and Hernan.

 

 

  B. Synoptic History

  -------------------

 

     A tropical wave passing several hundred miles south of the Gulf of

  Tehuantepec spawned an area of disturbed weather on 11 September which

  persisted as it moved slowly westward. Convection and banding features

  slowly improved and the system was classified as Tropical Depression 13E

  at 2100 UTC on 13 September while located about 100 nm southwest of

  Acapulco. TD-13E slowly intensified and was upgraded to Tropical Storm

  Lane at 0900 UTC on 14 September while centered about 80 nm off the

  Mexican coast. Lane continued to strengthen as it moved northwestward

  around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico.

  Throughout its life the cyclone moved on a track roughly parallel to and

  generally less than 100 nm off the Mexican coastline.

 

     Since the storm posed a threat to Mexico, reconnaissance missions were

  flown into the storm by the U. S. Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Based on

  a peak FLW of 76 kts and a 90-min pressure drop from 989 to 985 mb, Lane

  was upgraded to a hurricane at 15/2100 UTC while centered only about

  35 nm west-northwest of Cabo Corrientes. Lane's track had by that time

  shifted more to the north-northwest at about 8 kts. Once having reached

  hurricane intensity, Lane intensified rapidly--a possibility which had

  been suggested by the SHIPS model. Only three hours after reaching

  hurricane intensity, Lane was a Category 2 hurricane with 85-kt winds

  passing just west of the Islas Marias.

 

     Intensification continued and at 16/0900 UTC Lane became the season's

  fifth major hurricane as the MSW was upped to 100 kts, based on Dvorak

  ratings of T5.5 from all three agencies. The storm was then located

  about 45 nm southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico, and moving toward the north-

  northwest at 9 kts. Hurricane Lane reached its peak intensity of 110 kts

  at 1500 UTC. The 8-10 nm eye was embedded in cloud tops of -70 to -80 C

  and had become better defined during the previous few hours. Satellite

  intensity estimates remained at 102 kts from TAFB and AFWA but had

  increased to 115 kts from SAB.

 

     The center of Hurricane Lane made landfall about 20 nm southeast of

  El Dorado, Mexico, around 1915 UTC. A reconnaissance plane reached the

  eye of Lane just before landfall and measured a CP of 955 mb along

  with maximum 700-mb FLWs of 110 kts in the southeastern eyewall. An

  eyewall dropsonde in the southern eyewall just after landfall measured

  a surface wind of 108 kts. Once inland the storm predictably began

  to weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain with some southwesterly

  shear also aiding in the weakening process. Lane was downgraded to a

  tropical storm at 17/0900 UTC, and the final TPC/NHC advisory on the

  weakening depression was issued at 17/1500 UTC, placing the dissipating

  surface center about 150 km east-northeast of Los Mochis, Mexico. Some

  of the moisture from Lane eventually reached Texas.

 

 

  C. Damage and Casualties

  ------------------------

 

     Due to Lane's track near the Mexican coast, effects were felt in

  several areas. In Acapulco, wave action and heavy rains caused flooding

  in coastal streets. Around 200 homes were flooded and the heavy rains

  were responsible for a mudslide, resulting in the death of a 7-year old

  boy. Offshore, strong waves capsized a boat, leaving one person missing.

  Heavy rainfall in the states of Michoacan and Jalisco (187 mm in Cajon

  de Pena) also led to flooding and landslides with some fatalities

  reported. In the landfall area roads were washed away and flimsy homes

  destroyed with electricity poles, trees, and traffic signs blown down.

  In Mazatlan strong winds and heavy rain resulted in flooded streets and

  power outages. The total death toll from Hurricane Lane stands at four

  with total damages estimated around $110 million (USD).

 

     Much of the above information was obtained from the online Wikipedia

  report on Hurricane Lane, and many more details are available in the

  report. This excellent and very informative report may be accessed at

  the following URL:

 

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Lane_%282006%29

 

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

 

 

 

                          TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM

                                 (TC-14E)

                            16 - 18 September

                -----------------------------------------

 

     Tropical Storm Miriam was a short-lived and weak tropical storm which

  formed in a broad area of disturbed weather extending westward from

  Hurricane Lane. The system was classified as a tropical depression (14E)

  at 16/0600 UTC when located roughly 450 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas

  on the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. TD-14E initially

  moved slowly northeastward, embedded in southwesterly flow feeding into

  Hurricane Lane. Operationally, the depression was upgraded to Tropical

  Storm Miriam at 1800 UTC on the 16th while located approximately 400 nm

  southwest of Cabo San Lucas. (In post-storm analysis it has been

  determined that the depression and tropical storm stages were each

  reached six hours earlier than reported operationally.)

 

     Tropical Storm Miriam reached its peak intensity of 40 kts at 17/0300

  UTC and maintained this strength for 18 hours. Northeasterly wind shear

  along with inflow from a cooler and stable environment to the north

  inhibited further intensification and Miriam began to weaken on the 17th.

  The system was downgraded to a depression at 18/0900 UTC and the final

  TPC/NHC advisory written at 18/1500 UTC. The remnant LOW moved northward

  toward the Baja before dissipating on 21 September a short distance

  offshore.

 

     The official storm report on Tropical Storm Miriam, authored by James

  Franklin, is available on the TPC/NHC website at the following URL:

 

  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2006epac.shtml

 

     Some of the information above was taken from this report. No damage

  or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical Storm Miriam.

 

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

 

  *************************************************************************

 

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

 

  Activity for September: 1 possible tropical depression or storm **

                           3 tropical depressions ++

                           1 tropical storm ##

                           2 typhoons

                           2 super typhoons &&

 

  ** - system received repeated Dvorak ratings of T2.5 from both JTWC and

       AFWA but was never started as a tropical depression, nor so

       classified by JMA

 

  ++ - one of these was classified as a tropical depression by JMA only;

       another formed late in month and became named tropical cyclone in

       early October

 

  ## - system was classified as a minimal tropical storm by JTWC only

 

  && - one of these was a visitor from the Central North Pacific

 

  NOTE!!! The Northwest Pacific basin will be covered in the third

          installment of the September summary.

 

  *************************************************************************

 

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

 

  Activity for September: 2 depressions **

                           1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity ++

                           1 severe cyclonic storm

 

  ** - no warnings isused on these systems by JTWC

 

  ++ - system was treated only as a depression by IMD

 

 

                          Sources of Information

                          ----------------------

 

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical

  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued

  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and

  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some

  information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks

  and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department

  (IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional

  Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin.

 

     The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute

  averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military

  weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic

  observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and

  3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to

  modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;

  hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied. In the North Indian Ocean

  basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has

  become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status

  within 48 hours.

 

 

             North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for September

             --------------------------------------------------

 

     The northern Bay of Bengal had been quite prolific during August,

  producing several weak depressions. This trend continued into early

  September with IMD identifying a depression on the 3rd, centered at

  1200 UTC about 100 nm southeast of Balasore. The system moved

  westward and crossed the coast near Chandbali around 0100 UTC on

  4 September and slowly weakened thereafter. This system was

  referenced in the STWOs from JTWC as an area with a 'poor' potential

  for development.

 

     A couple of quiet weeks ensued before activity resumed. Based on

  very sketchy information in the IMD bulletins and on a report on the

  Wikipedia website, IMD upgraded a low-pressure area near Jamshedpur to

  depression status on 21 September. This city lies well inland, so likely

  this system was a monsoon depression. Over the next two days the

  depression moved northward into the state of Bihar, weakening to a low-

  pressure area on the 24th. According to the Wikipedia report, torrential

  downpours associated with this system caused flooding that led to 170

  fatalities and left around 375,000 persons homeless.

 

     There were two storms in the North Indian Ocean for which warnings

  were issued. Severe Cyclonic Storm Mukda formed in the northeastern

  Arabian Sea on 20 September and remained quasi-stationary for most of

  its existence while intensifying to near hurricane force. During the

  final days of the month, another weak northern Bay of Bengal system was

  designated Tropical Cyclone 05B by JTWC. Short reports on Mukda and

  TC-05B follow.

 

     The online Wikipedia reports for the North Indian Ocean cyclones may

  be accessed at the following URL:

 

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Indian_cyclone_season

 

 

 

                       SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MUKDA

                           (TC-04A / ARB0601)

                            20 - 25 September

             -----------------------------------------------

 

  Mukda: contributed by Thailand

 

     An area of convection developed and persisted on 18 September

  approximately 170 nm west-northwest of Mumbai (Bombay), India. An

  18/1344 UTC QuikScat image revealed flaring convection within an area

  of surface troughing. Upper-level analysis depicted favorable

  divergence aloft with low to moderate vertical shear. By the next day

  the disturbance had moved to a position about 250 nm west of Mumbai

  and appeared to be have become slightly better organized, so JTWC

  raised the potential for further development to 'fair'. The system

  continued to move westward away from India and at 20/1800 UTC lay

  approximately 350 nm west of Mumbai. Animated multi-spectral imagery

  depicted a partially-exposed LLCC with deep convective banding wrapping

  into the western quadrant. Based on satellite intensity estimates,

  the system by this time was sufficiently organized to be classified

  as a tropical depression with winds likely around 30 kts. At 20/2300

  UTC JTWC issued a TCFA for the system as convective organization

  continued to improve.

 

     The first JTWC warning on TC-04A was issued at 21/0000 UTC with the

  center located about 315 nm south of Karachi, Pakistan, drifting west

  at 4 kts with the MSW estimated at 35 kts. The intensity had increased

  to 45 kts by 21/1200 UTC where it reached a plateau for a day or so.

  Steering currents had become very weak by 1200 UTC and the storm moved

  very little over the next few days. At 22/0000 UTC the MSW was still

  estimated at 45 kts, but there were signs that TC-04A was strengthening.

  A 21/2107 UTC AMSR-E pass had depicted tightly-curved convective banding

  and a formative eye. IMD had designated the system as a depression at

  21/0300 UTC, upped it to deep depression status at 1200 UTC, and at

  22/0000 UTC named the system Cyclonic Storm Mukda.

 

     Mukda continued to intensify, reaching an estimated peak intensity of

  60 kts by 22/1800 UTC--this being based on JTWC's operational warning

  intensity. It seems very likely that Mukda reached hurricane intensity

  on 22 September. JTWC's satellite analyst rendered a Dvorak rating of

  T4.0/4.0 at 22/1730 UTC, SAB's rating was T4.5/4.5 at 22/1430 UTC, and

  AFWA returned ratings of T4.5/4.5 for several hours on the 22nd. The

  IMD upgraded Mukda to a severe cyclonic storm early on the 23rd, implying

  peak winds between 48 and 63 kts. Regardless of its intensity, Mukda

  didn't go anywhere--it remained quasi-stationary in the general area

  roughly 250-300 nm south of Karachi throughout its life as a cyclonic

  storm. JTWC dropped the MSW to 55 kts at 23/0600 UTC, and Mukda's

  intensity continued to steadily drop, reaching minimal tropical storm

  intensity of 35 kts by 24/0000 UTC with the storm still essentially

  stationary. JTWC issued their final warning on Mukda at 24/1800 UTC,

  and by 25/0000 UTC, the winds had dropped to about 25 kts based on

  a consensus of satellite intensity estimates. The remnants of Mukda

  hung around for several days in the northern Arabian Sea, gradually

  drifting westward. Convection would occasionally flare up near the

  still well-defined LLCC, but no serious attempts at regeneration were

  observed.

 

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Severe

  Cyclonic Storm Mukda.

 

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

 

 

 

                             TROPICAL CYCLONE

                                 (TC-05B)

                             28 - 30 September

                   -------------------------------------

 

     A STWO issued by JTWC at 1800 UTC on 27 September noted that an area

  of convection had formed approximately 420 nm southeast of Calcutta,

  India, and was moving westward into the Bay of Bengal. A LLCC was

  in evidence and vertical wind shear in the region was low. Based on

  satellite intensity estimates the system had become a 30-kt tropical

  depression by 28/0600 UTC when located about 300 nm south-southeast of

  Calcutta. JTWC issued the first warning on TC-05B at 1200 UTC with

  the system then passing 250 nm south of Calcutta, moving toward the

  west-northwest at 13 kts. The initial warning intensity was 35 kts,

  which was the system's peak intensity per JTWC's warnings.

 

     Guided by a mid-level steering ridge, TC-05B continued westward

  and made landfall near Gopalpur around 29/1200 UTC. With the center

  moving inland, JTWC issued their third and final warning on the system

  at this time. This location is also approximately 290 nm southwest of

  Calcutta. AFWA returned a Dvorak rating of T3.5/3.5 (55 kts) at 28/1800

  UTC, suggesting that the system might possibly have been slightly

  stronger than analyzed by JTWC. However, the IMD never upgraded this

  system to deep depression status, implying that in their opinion the

  MSW never reached 30 kts.

 

     No damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Cyclone 05B have been

  reported.

 

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

 

  *************************************************************************

 

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

 

  Activity for September: No tropical cyclones

 

  *************************************************************************

 

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

 

  Activity for September: No tropical cyclones

 

  *************************************************************************

 

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

 

  Activity for September: No tropical cyclones

 

  *************************************************************************

 

  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

 

  Activity for September: No tropical cyclones

 

  *************************************************************************

 

         SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION

 

     The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and

  varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers

  will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,

  I wanted to include them.

 

  (1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information

  ---------------------------------------

 

     Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be

  retrieved from the following FTP site:

 

     ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/

 

     Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance

  messages may be found at the following URL:

 

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml

 

  Links are also included to websites with further information about the

  U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-

  craft Operations Center.

 

  (2) Archived Advisories

  -----------------------

 

     All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,

  strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC

  are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2006 as an

  example), the archived products can be found at:

 

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/index.shtml

 

  Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at

  the following URL:

 

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml

 

  JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website:

 

     http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

 

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left

  corner of the screen.

 

     I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all

  its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but

  if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.

 

  (3) Satellite Imagery

  ---------------------

 

     Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are

  available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,

  courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The

  links are:

 

     http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

 

     http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html

 

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left

  corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is

  located in the lower left portion of the screen.

 

     Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for

  composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the

  equator, can be found at:

 

  (1) For the Eastern North Pacific:

 

     http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html

 

  (2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:

 

     http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

 

     I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and

  as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.

 

  *************************************************************************

 

                               EXTRA FEATURE

 

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative

  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and

  acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage

  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of

  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a

  few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of

  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998

  summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in

  order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to

  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy

  to send them a copy.

 

  *************************************************************************

 

  AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary

  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone

  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational

  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The

  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and

  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based

  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information

  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning

  centers will be passed along from time to time.

 

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved

  from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail

  distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive

  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

 

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files

  created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as

  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

 

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,

  1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites

  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris

  Landsea, and John Diebolt):

 

    http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/

    http://www.typhoon2000.ph <http://www.typhoon2000.ph/>

    http://mpittweather.com <http://mpittweather.com/>

    ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/

    http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/

 

 

     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may

  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site

  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones

  globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:

 

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone

    

 

                    TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

 

     JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone

  Report (ATCR) for 2004 (2003-2004 season for the Southern Hemisphere).

  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.

 

     The URL is: https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.html

 

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"

  tracking charts for the 2005 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific

  tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2005 Atlantic

  and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as

  track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.

 

     The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/>

 

 

     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,

  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.

 

 

  PREPARED BY

 

  Gary Padgett

  E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com

  Phone: 334-222-5327

 

  Kevin Boyle (Northwest Pacific)

  E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com

 

  Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)

  E-mail: scla4255@bigpond.net.au

 

  *************************************************************************

  *************************************************************************

 

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