MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
OCTOBER, 2006
First Installment
SPECIAL NOTE: The October summary is being issued in two installments.
The first installment will cover all basins except the Northwest Pacific
basin, which will be covered in the second installment.
(The third installment of the September summary, covering the Northwest
Pacific basin, has not yet been issued. Kevin Boyle is writing the
reports for the three NWP typhoons, and I have received one of them from
Kevin at the present time. Hopefully, the final installment of the
September summary will be issued within the next two weeks.)
NOTE FROM THE AUTHOR: Almost two years ago I began including links to
track graphics prepared by John Diebolt of Tucson, Arizona, and archived
on his tropical cyclone website. A few months back John experienced a
disk crash which resulted in a error. He had to request assistance from
the programmer who had written the map-generation software, but so far
has not been able to get the problem solved. As a convenience to users,
I've also recently been including links to the individual tabular tracks,
prepared by myself, which John had archived on his website. Now, due to
family concerns, John has not had time to place the tracks for recent
cyclones on the website. I have checked the websites listed at the end
of the summaries and found that the entire October track file has been
archived on two of them. The links are:
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/2007/trak0610.htm
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/garyp_mgtcs/oct06tks.txt
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
*************************************************************************
OCTOBER HIGHLIGHTS
--> Atlantic very quiet--no tropical cyclones form
--> Extremely intense super typhoon strikes northern Luzon
--> South Pacific season gets underway early with intense tropical
cyclone
*************************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for October: 1 hurricane **
** - Storm formed in September
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some
additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a
1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.
Atlantic Tropical Activity for October
--------------------------------------
Following are some statistics for the Atlantic basin during the month
of October:
October Average
Parameter 2006 1950 - 2005
--------------------------------------------------------
Named Storms (NS) 0 1.7
Hurricanes (H) 0 1.1
Intense Hurricanes (IH) 0 0.4
Named Storm Days (NSD) 2.00 9.3
Hurricane Days (HD) 1.75 4.4
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) 0 0.8
No tropical cyclones formed in the Atlantic basin during the month
of October, 2006. The only cyclone on the map was Hurricane Isaac on
the first two days of the month. Isaac had formed in late September and
passed well to the east of Bermuda, reaching hurricane intensity at
1200 UTC on 30 September. The storm weakened to a tropical storm just
before clipping southeastern Newfoundland on 2 October, and shortly
thereafter was declared extratropical. The report on Isaac may be found
in the September summary, and the official TPC/NHC report on this cyclone
is now available online.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! EXTRA FEATURE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ADDED
As noted in the Extra Feature in the August summary, a low-pressure
system south of Nova Scotia in mid-July exhibited some tropical storm
characteristics and was being considered for inclusion in the official
roster of 2006 tropical cyclones as an unnamed tropical storm. During
the post-season analysis, the decision was made to include this system,
bringing the number of "named" storms for 2006 to ten. The official
TPC/NHC report on this storm, as well as reports for all the Atlantic
storms, may be found at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2006atlan.shtml
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for October: 2 tropical depressions **
2 tropical storms
1 hurricane
** - one of the non-developing tropical depressions formed in the
Central North Pacific region
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
locations west of longitude 140W): discussions, public advisories,
forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have
been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to
sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
noted.
Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for October
-----------------------------------------------
Following are some statistics for the Northeast Pacific basin during
the month of October:
October Average
Parameter 2006 1971 - 2005
--------------------------------------------------------
Named Storms (NS) 3 2.0
Hurricanes (H) 1 1.1
Intense Hurricanes (IH) 0 0.6
Named Storm Days (NSD) 6.50 9.1
Hurricane Days (HD) 1.75 4.1
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) 0 1.2
The Northeast Pacific basin was somewhat quieter than normal during
October, 2006, with the average level of activity being around 60% of
what is normal for October. Three named storms developed (average is
two) and there was one hurricane, which is the average. However, the
number of NSD and HD was rather lower than normal and there was no
intense hurricane. Tropical Storms Norman and Olivia formed more or
less simultaneously in early October well southwest of Baja California,
but remained weak and were short-lived. Several days after weakening
to a remnant LOW, Norman's remnants interacted with another disturbance
and regained depression status just off the Mexican coast. Hurricane
Paul became a respectable Category 2 hurricane and turned northeastward
toward the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula, but had weakened into a
depression before reaching the Mexican coast. The following reports
on the named cyclones are very brief as the official TPC/NHC reports on
all the Eastern Pacific storms are now available online.
Two additional non-developing tropical depressions also formed during
October. The final in a series of short-lived tropical depressions in
the Central Pacific formed about 650 nm southwest of Honolulu on the
13th and was designated Tropical Depression 04C. Vertical shear
proved too strong for the depression to strengthen and advisories were
discontinued the next day. Further east, Tropical Depression 18E formed
well to the south of Cabo San Lucas on 26 October. However, the
environment was not conducive for tropical cyclone maintenance and this
system met its demise on the 27th.
Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all
the Northeast Pacific systems may be found at the following link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pacific_hurricane_season
The official TPC/NHC storm reports for the Eastern Pacific systems
east of 140W may be found at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2006epac.shtml
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN
(TC-15E)
9 - 15 October
-----------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Norman's origins lay with a tropical wave which emerged
off the African coast around 21 September. The wave marched westward
with little convection, moving into the Eastern North Pacific on
1 October. During the early days of October a large and complex area
of disturbed weather existed southwest of Mexico, and the tropical wave
was involved with the eastern portion of the disturbance. Farther to
the west was located another system which became the next Eastern North
Pacific cyclone, Olivia. Convective organization increased and a
tropical depression had formed by around 0000 UTC on 9 October about
665 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula. TD-15E moved slowly to the north-northwest and
became a tropical storm around 1200 UTC. After peaking at 45 kts on
10 October, Norman came under increasingly hostile southwesterly shear
which led to its weakening to a tropical depression later on the 10th.
On the 11th Norman weakened into a remnant LOW situated about 460 nm
southwest of Cabo San Lucas.
Over the next few days the remnant LOW moved east-southeastward, then
eastward on 14 October. The system interacted with a broad area of
disturbed weather near the Mexican coast, and during this time convection
re-organized near the center of the LOW, resulting in Norman's being
re-designated as a tropical depression at 15/0000 UTC about 175 nm south-
southeast of Manzanillo. Tropical Depression Norman moved northward and
then northwestward inside the cyclonic envelope of the larger disturbance
and abruptly dissipated late on the 15th just south of Manzanillo.
Conventional satellite imagery suggested that Norman's center may have
moved inland east of Manzanillo, but surface observations did not support
a landfall.
There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Tropical
Storm Norman.
(Report written by Gary Padgett, based upon the official TPC/NHC report
authored by Jack Beven)
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA
(TC-16E)
9 - 12 October
-----------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Olivia, which operated concurrently with Tropical Storm
Norman, originated from a tropical wave which had emanated out of western
Africa on 18 September--ahead of the pre-Norman wave. The wave moved
rather uneventfully across the Atlantic and Caribbean with little
associated convection. However, upon reaching the Eastern North Pacific
on 29 September, convection began to slowly increase. The wave continued
westward and by the 5th a broad low-pressure area had formed along the
wave axis. Moderate upper-level westerly shear, however, inhibited
further development for a few days as the LOW continued westward. It is
estimated that a tropical depression had formed by 1800 UTC on 9 October,
centered about 1180 nm west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas. TD-16E moved
slowly northward into a region of weaker vertical wind shear and had
strengthened into Tropical Storm Olivia by 0600 UTC on 10 October.
Shortly after being upgraded, Olivia accelerated northeastward and
reached its peak intensity of 40 kts just six hours later. However, this
northeasterly motion carried the tropical cyclone into a region of strong
upper-level southerly winds and drier air which caused the deep
convection to weaken and shear away from the center. Olivia was down-
graded to a tropical depression at 11/1200 UTC when located about 900 nm
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. It then turned
eastward and persistent strong vertical shear led to Olivia degenerating
into a remnant LOW early in the 13th. This LOW moved east-southeastward
and was absorbed into the larger remnant circulation of former Tropical
Storm Norman on 15 October. It is considered possible that the remnants
of Olivia may have played a role in the regeneration of Norman into a
tropical depression off the Mexican coast a few hours later.
There have been no reports of damage or casualties resulting from
Tropical Storm Olivia.
(Report written by Gary Padgett, based upon the official TPC/NHC report
authored by Stacy Stewart.)
HURRICANE PAUL
(TC-17E)
21 - 26 October
-----------------------------------
A tropical wave which emerged from the coast of Africa on 4 October
was the progenitor of Hurricane Paul. As with the tropical waves which
had produced Tropical Storms Norman and Olivia, the pre-Paul wave also
produced little deep convection during its sojourn across the tropical
Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Crossing Central America on 18 October, the
wave moved into a pre-existing area of disturbed weather over the Eastern
North Pacific on the 19th. This merger resulted in the formation of a
larger area of convection which extended northward to the southern coast
of Mexico. A LOW formed on 20 October and a tropical depression was
estimated to have developed by 0600 UTC on the 21st about 230 nm south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. TD-17E quickly strengthened and was
upgraded to Tropical Storm Paul only six hours after being classified as
a tropical depression. A mid to upper-tropospheric ridge over Mexico
was producing easterly shear over the cyclone, so Paul did not strengthen
significantly for the next 24 hours.
Late on the 22nd Paul reached the western periphery of the ridge and
the vertical shear decreased. The storm responded by intensifying rather
rapidly--during the 18-hour period from 22/1800 and 23/1200 UTC Paul's
estimated MSW increased from 45 to 90 kts. In addition, the forward
motion decreased as Paul began to turn toward the north. Soon afterward
the hurricane began to interact with a large mid to upper-level trough
off the U. S. West Coast. Paul began to curve onto a northeasterly
track and the increasing westerly shear resulted in weakening beginning
late on the 23rd.
The center of Hurricane Paul passed just west of Socorro Island early
on 24 October and around 24 hours later passed only about 40 nm south
of Cabo San Lucas. The cyclone by this time had been downgraded to a
tropical storm, and further weakening ensued with Paul being further
downgraded to a tropical depression at 26/0000 UTC as it approached the
coast of mainland Mexico. The weak system turned northward and made
landfall along the coast near the southern end of Isla Altamura around
0400 UTC on the 26th, dissipating a few hours later approximately 50 nm
northwest of Culiacan.
Four deaths were directly attributed to Paul in Mexico. Two persons,
including an American tourist, were swept out to sea from the southern
tip of the Baja due to large waves and high surf kicked up by the
weakening cyclone. Even though only a tropical depression at landfall,
Paul produced very heavy rainfall in Mexico, resulting in floods in the
state of Sinaloa. According to media reports, 5000 homes were damaged,
resulting in 20,000 people being displaced. Two deaths occurred in the
municipality of Navolato where a truck was swept away by a swollen river.
(Report written by Gary Padgett, based upon the official TPC/NHC report
written by Jamie Rhome and Robert Berg)
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for October: 3 tropical depressions **
2 tropical storms
1 typhoon
1 super typhoon
** - none of these classified by JTWC; one classified by PAGASA only,
two others classified by JMA only
NOTE!!! The Northwest Pacific basin will be covered in the second
installment of the October summary.
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for October: 1 cyclonic storm **
** - no warnings issued on this system by JTWC
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some
information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks
and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department
(IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin.
The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute
averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic
observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied. In the North Indian Ocean
basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has
become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status
within 48 hours.
CYCLONIC STORM OGNI
(BOB0602)
28 - 30 October
---------------------------------------
Ogni: contributed by Bangladesh
Cyclonic Storm Ogni formed in late October just off the southeastern
coast of India and moved northward and inland, hugging the coastline all
the way. An area of convection developed on 27 October about 100 nm
west of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Satellite imagery revealed a LLCC developing
in the Palk Strait with persistent convection. An upper-level analysis
indicated low to moderate vertical shear with good equatorward outflow
and developing poleward outflow. Satellite bulletins from JTWC and AFWA
indicated that a tropical depression with winds of at least 25 kts likely
had developed by 28/1130 UTC and was centered very near the coast of
India about 75 nm south-southwest of Madras. Environmental conditions
in general were favorable for development--the only negative factor was
the system's proximity to land. At 28/2300 UTC JTWC upgraded the
potential for development to 'fair', and at 0300 UTC on 29 October the
IMD issued a bulletin classifying the developing system as a depression.
The depression continued to move on an almost due northerly track just
off the Indian coastline. Satellite classifications from SAB indicate
that winds had likely reached 30 kts by 29/0230 UTC and 35 kts six hours
later. IMD upgraded the system to deep depression status at 0900 UTC,
and at 1200 UTC further upgraded it to Cyclonic Storm Ogni, located
about 27 nm east of Kaveli. A STWO issued by JTWC at 29/1100 UTC noted
that the center was offshore with a band of deep convection wrapping
into the northern quadrant from the east. Maximum winds were estimated
at 25-35 kts, but JTWC elected to not issue warnings on the system,
although a TCFA was issued at 1130 UTC.
Satellite classifications from SAB suggest that Ogni likely reached
a peak intensity of 45 kts (1-min avg) around 29/1430 UTC, but had begun
to slowly weaken by 0230 UTC on the 30th. According to an IMD bulletin
at 30/0300 UTC Ogni was centered very close to Ongole. The storm
continued to move northward and had moved inland south of Vijayavada
by 0830 UTC, quickly weakening thereafter. With the center nearing the
coast, JTWC had cancelled the TCFA at 30/0230 UTC. A radar image from
an IMD website made at 30/0443 UTC depicts Ogni with the center almost
on the Indian coastline and appears indicative of a system of tropical
storm intensity.
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Cyclonic
Storm Ogni.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for October: 1 tropical disturbance
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
for the basin. However, tropical cyclones in this region are named
by the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres in Mauritius and
Madagascar with longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their
respective areas of naming responsibility. The La Reunion centre only
advises these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems.
References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless
otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.
Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for October
----------------------------------------------------
The first tropical disturbance of the 2006-2007 season in the South-
west Indian basin formed in mid-October. Around 0000 UTC on 18 October
a tight LLCC with flaring convection was located approximately 600 nm
west-northwest of Diego Garcia. JTWC issued the first of three TCFAs
at 18/0900 UTC, noting that deep convection was increasing over a
developing LLCC in the presence of vigorous poleward outflow and within
a region of low to moderate vertical shear. Winds were estimated to
be 25-30 kts. Over the next day the system drifted westward with
little change. MFR issued the first warning on Tropical Disturbance 01
at 19/0600 UTC, locating the center somewhat to the north at a position
approximately 250 nm east-northeast of the Seychelles. JTWC issued a
second TCFA at 0900 UTC, noting that the system was moving northwestward
at 6 kts. Interestingly, only four hours later JTWC issued a third
TCFA for the disturbance. As the system was very poorly-organized and
located in a marginal environment for strengthening, MFR issued only
very sporadic bulletins through the 21st, and JTWC cancelled their TCFA
at 1300 UTC on 20 October, downgrading the potential for development to
'poor'.
The system seemed to reform somewhat further to the south on the 21st.
A bulletin issued by MFR at 21/0600 UTC placed the center approximately
185 nm east-southeast of the Seychelles. The southward movement
continued with the system reaching a point about 125 nm northwest of
Agalega at 22/1200 UTC. At this point, MFR begin issuing regular
6-hourly warnings on Tropical Disturbance 01, estimating the 10-min avg
MSW at 25 kts. No warnings were issued on the system by JTWC, but
satellite bulletins from that agency and AFWA implied maximum 1-min avg
winds of around 30 kts from the 18th through the 22nd. The system
began drifting westward on 22 October but began to slowly weaken. The
final MFR bulletin, issued at 23/1200 UTC, placed a weak 20-kt center
approximately 185 nm north-northeast of the northern tip of Madagascar.
A track for this system was included in the companion global cyclone
tracks file prepared by the author.
Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all
the Southern Hemisphere systems may be found at the following link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006-07_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_se
ason
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E
Activity for October: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E
Activity for October: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for October: 1 tropical depression
1 tropical cyclone of hurricane intensity
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
South Pacific tropical cyclones are the warnings and advisories
issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji (for
waters north of latitude 25S), and Wellington, New Zealand (for
waters south of latitude 25S). References to sustained winds imply
a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Southern Hemisphere
centres' coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings
are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information
describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation
features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC
warnings.
South Pacific Tropical Activity for October
-------------------------------------------
For the first time since 1997, a named tropical cyclone formed in
South Pacific waters east of 160E during the month of October. The
cyclone, Xavier, not only was the first South Pacific October cyclone
in nine years, but it also became an intense cyclone, peaking at 95 kts
(10-min avg) per Fiji's analysis, or at 115 kts (1-min avg) per JTWC's
analysis. After reaching hurricane intensity, Tropical Cyclone Xavier
passed over the island of Tikopia in the Santa Cruz group, which had
been utterly devastated in late 2002 by the extremely intense Tropical
Cyclone Zoe. At one point Xavier's forecast track was southwestward
toward the islands of the Republic of Vanuatu, but fortunately the
storm shifted to a southeasterly track, relieving the threat to Vanuatu.
A report on Tropical Cyclone Xavier, written by Simon Clarke, follows.
During the time that Xavier was active, Nadi identified another system
to the east as Tropical Depression 02F. This system at 24/1800 UTC was
located east of the Dateline approximately 300 nm northwest of American
Samoa (12.0S/175.0W). TD-02F moved westward, and at one point on the
25th appeared to be increasing in organization, but as it moved across
the Dateline it began to be unfavorably influenced by the outflow from
Xavier. TD-02F crossed the Dateline at a point approximately 325 nm
north-northeast of Fiji (13.0S/180.0E), subsequently moving northwest-
ward. At 27/1800 UTC the weakening system was located about 350 nm west
of Funafuti (8.5S/176.5E) and continued to drift westward until it was
dropped from Fiji's tropical weather summaries on the 29th. Nadi
estimated that winds of 20-30 kts might be occurring up to 180 nm from
the center, but no gale warnings were ever issued for TD-02F. Since
no satellite classifications warranting tropical depression status were
issued on this system, no track was included in the companion global
cyclone tracks file.
Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all
the Southern Hemisphere systems may be found at the following link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006-07_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_se
ason
TROPICAL CYCLONE XAVIER
(TD-01F / TC-01P)
20 - 28 October
-------------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The South Pacific Cyclone Season was off to a very early start in the
form of TC Xavier which developed prior to the official commencement
of the cyclone season on 1 November. The cyclone originated from a
persistent area of thunderstorm activity that was active in the
intertropical convergence zone stretching from the Solomon Islands
across to the north of Vanuatu for almost a week.
By 20/2100 UTC, an area of consolidating convection near a LLCC was
identified near 9.9S/167.8E. The LOW had a solid trade flow to the
south and was located in a region of superior upper outflow,
particularly to its north and east. SSTs were around 29-30 deg C.
Development of the depression was rapid and by 22/0000 UTC, RSMC Nadi
upgraded the LOW to cyclone status and officially named the system
Xavier. At this time the cyclone was located near 11.0S/167.8E, over
Santa Cruz, the eastern most group of islands in the Solomon chain.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Initially Xavier meandered slowly to the east of the Utupua Island
before commencing what was to become a persistent track initially to
the SSE at 6 kts and finally to the SE at 10 kts. Conditions
remained favorable for development, allowing the midget system to
intensify explosively. Within 18 hours Xavier reached hurricane
intensity with a clear eye feature developing in a tightly-wrapped
central core. The cyclone passed over Tikopia (pop. 1200), the
southernmost island in the Santa Cruz Group, famous for withstanding
Severe Tropical Cyclone Zoe in December, 2002 (see separate report).
Xavier continued to the SE at 10 kts in response to the northwesterly
steering flow. A change of path to the W or SW was forecast, but never
eventuated, which is counted as somewhat of a blessing as this track
would have taken Xavier through the main islands of Vanuatu. Peak
intensity was attained at 24/0600 UTC near 13.7S/169.6E (approx. 220 nm
NE of Vila, Vanuatu, and 350 nm WNW of Nadi, Fiji). Central
pressure was estimated to be 930 hPa with maximum 10 min-avg winds of
95kts. Peak intensity was maintained for eighteen hours; thereafter
Xavier underwent an equally impressive weakening process losing
cyclone status at 26/0000 UTC as aggressive upper wind shear and
cooler sea surface temperatures eroded the system's convective
structure, displacing it well to the SE of the LLCC. At about
this time, Xavier's path to the SE was blocked by a low-level south-
easterly surge from a solid mid-level ridge building to its south.
The remnant LLCC was forced back to the NNW at a rapid pace and
ultimately the LLCC lost identity a little over twenty four hours
later.
(Note: The peak 1-min avg MSW estimated by JTWC for Tropical Cyclone
Xavier was 115 kts at 24/0000 and 24/1200 UTC.)
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
There were no casualties as a result of Xavier. Minor tree damage
was reported from the islands of Utupua and Vanikolo. Extensive
damage to food crops and flooding occurred at Tikopia. However,
Radio New Zealand reported that overall damage at Tikopia was
considered to be light given the circumstances. The cyclone side
swiped the eastern islands of Vanuatu, producing rough seas, beach
erosion and squally winds. However, no significant damage was
reported.
(Report written by Simon Clarke)
*************************************************************************
SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers
will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
I wanted to include them.
(1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
---------------------------------------
Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
retrieved from the following FTP site:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/
Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
messages may be found at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
Links are also included to websites with further information about the
U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
craft Operations Center.
(2) Archived Advisories
-----------------------
All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an
example), the archived products can be found at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml
Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml
JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen.
I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.
(3) Satellite Imagery
---------------------
Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The
links are:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is
located in the lower left portion of the screen.
Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for
composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the
equator, can be found at:
(1) For the Eastern North Pacific:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html
(2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.
*************************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
to send them a copy.
*************************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
these via e-mail, please send me a message.)
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris
Landsea, and John Diebolt):
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/
http://www.typhoon2000.ph <http://www.typhoon2000.ph/>
http://mpittweather.com <http://mpittweather.com/>
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
Report (ATCR) for 2004 (2003-2004 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
ATCRs for earlier years are available also.
The URL is: http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 2006 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2006 Atlantic
and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.
The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov <http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/>
NOTE!!! At present the track map for the Eastern North Pacific basin
is not yet online, but likely will be soon.
A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.
PREPARED BY
Gary Padgett
E-mail: garyp@alaweb.com
Phone: 334-222-5327
Kevin Boyle (Northwest Pacific)
E-mail: newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com
Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
E-mail: scla4255@bigpond.net.au
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
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