From: LDM Weather (ldm@WEATHER3.ADMIN.NIU.EDU)
Date: Fri Oct 10 2008 - 16:13:27 EDT
021
FXPQ60 PGUM 102013
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
613 AM CHST SAT OCT 11 2008
.SYNOPSIS...THE AXIS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WAS ALSO
SITUATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THESE TWO FEATURES PRODUCED AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE ISLANDS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS DID MOVE ACROSS GUAM
AND ROTA BEFORE SUNRISE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HAD TO SPLIT THE ZONES. DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH WERE ADVANCING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THE SHOWERS WITHER ON
THE VINE? LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE LOOP FROM FRIDAY THE ANSWER
WOULD BE YES. THIS LOOP SHOWED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DID DECREASE AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED
BY NOON TIME. WILL THIS REPEAT ITSELF TODAY? IT COULD AND SHOWERS
MAY BECOME ISOLATED ACROSS ALL THE MARIANAS BY NOON. THE MODELS
HOWEVER ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE SHOWERS IN THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA. WITH THIS IN MIND...LEFT THE
SHOWERS SCATTERED FOR THE THESE TWO ISLANDS. I BELIEVE THAT THE
SHOWER AREA WILL BARELY REACH TINIAN AND SAIPAN AND THEN
DISSIPATE. IT WILL BE LIKE WAVES BREAKING ON THE BEACH...REACHING
A HIGH WATER MARK BEFORE EBBING. THIS IS THE REASONING IN
SPLITTING THE ZONES. LEFT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
IN FOR ALL THE MARIANAS TONIGHT AS THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL FAVOR A
RETURN TO THE WETTER REGIME. THESE SHOWERS WILL END SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LEFTOVER MOISTURE TO KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
THE USUAL FARE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TRADE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE HERE. EAST AND SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AN EAST SWELL WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS NORTHEAST SWELL WILL
REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WAVE WATCH MODEL INTRODUCES A
NORTHERLY SWELL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DID ADD THIS IN...ALTHOUGH IT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL.
&
.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE ITCZ EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE
OVER MAJURO ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP SHOWERS AT WIDELY
SCATTERED CATEGORY THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE
MARCHES THRU MAJURO. STRONG CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER POHNPEI THRU LATE
TONIGHT. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THE
CONVERGENCE AXIS PASSING NORTH OF KOSRAE. WEAKER SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE ISLAND INTO
SUNDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH POHNPEI BY
SUNDAY AS CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWESTWARD.
A MUCH DRIER NORTHEASTERLY TRADE SURGE IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE AT
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SUPPORT NICE BUT BREEZY
WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. AFTER DEPARTING THE MARSHALLS...THE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH OF KOSRAE WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS FOR NEXT WEEK. IT WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO THE DRY
WEATHER OVER POHNPEI BY MONDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS FROM THE ANTICIPATED TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL
CAUSE SEAS TO RISE BETWEEN 5 AND 6 FEET OVER MAJURO BY MONDAY.
SURF ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS WILL ALSO REACH 6 TO 7
FEET BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE ITCZ IS INCHING CLOSER TOWARD CHUUK TODAY BUT STILL FAR
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...ITS ARRIVAL THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTERWARD...REMNANTS OF
A TRADE- WIND DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS INTO
MIDWEEK.
THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MARIANAS WILL FIRE UP SOME SHOWERS FOR YAP
AND PALAU THRU SUNDAY MORNING. THEN THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
DISSOLVED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
PHILIPPINES. THIS IN TERM WILL SUPPORT QUIET WEATHER FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MIGHT
CREEP BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIOBRO/CHAN
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